2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[grillrat]

Seems like most people are saying that Purdue has a low chance of winning this game tonight.  I think alot of people are ignoring some of the metrics though.

Yes, UConn has put up an offensive clinic in this tournament, but lost in the analysis is the fact that Illinois and Alabama aren't exactly great defensive teams.  Illinois is ranked (Kenpom) as 80th.  Alabama was 111th.

Purdue will be one of the highest ranked defenses that they will have seen all year (12th).

On the other side, UConn has an elite level defense (4th), but Purdue has gone up against some pretty high-end defenses all year: Tennessee twice (3rd), Rutgers twice (5th), MSU twice (9th), Arizona (10th), Maryland (14th), and Marquette (17th).  This in addition to several teams (OSU, NW, etc.) that are top 30 to top 75 defenses.

Uconn's three losses have been to Kansas (20th defense), Seton Hall (33rd), and Creighton (24th).  Marquette is 17th and they beat them 3 times, but only once with Kolek.  They beat NC (8th defense) at MSG, and they beat Villanova (13th) twice, but the road game at Villanova they only one by one point (66-65).

Purdue has a shot.  Will come down to shooting.

Good thing the eclipse is happening and I am leaving shortly to attend.  Otherwise I would not have been particularly effective today at work anyways.

[847badgerfan]

I do think they have a chance, but I'm just not overly optimistic.

[CatsbyAZ]

Lol. There was a degree to which I wanted to stay another night to watch it locally with my Purdue buddies, but I also wanted to get home.

Watching it in Indy would mean figuring out a new flight (possibly crazy cost) another hotel night (Indy was super expensive that weekend due to a Morgan Wallen concert plus the NIT), probably an insanely early flight to get home in time to spring the dog from boarding, a hell of a bar tab from a day of drinking, and having to fly Sunday hung over.

I'm too old for that. It's not like the F4 was at Lucas Oil and I could have gotten a ticket.

Besides, the big one is tomorrow.

This is a special case where all bets should be off! If you understandably can't be onsite in Glendale AZ, you were already in Indianapolis! Figure out another flight later. Along with the hotel. Worry about it all later including the added costs and drinking later. The dog boarders will understand.

Is sports trivial? Ultimately yes, sports is a trivial interest. Or more precisely, sports is comparatively trivial to faith, family, health, finances, and livelihoods. But does this triviality of sports mean that sports is meaningless? Certainly not! The individual can invest meaning into the trivial.

I've invested a lot of personal meaning into certain teams and should they advance to a championship round it rewards the meaning invested into those teams. No matter how trivial sports might ultimately be.

For you to blow that off is downright insulting to the years you've invested in your team!

The people who most know me know I'm skipping work, weddings, funerals, and graduations if my team(s) are in the championship game. And I've already expressed this once, flying from overseas without getting military leave approved in time to attend a BCS Championship.

If I couldn't go to the championship game (in Glendale AZ) you better believe I'd find an alumni group to go watch and celebrate with (and you were already in Indy!!!).   

Speaking of Morgan Wallen, even he knows how to extend a stay:


https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1777297461532393783

[medinabuckeye1]

The tournament isn't over yet (Good Luck tonight Boilers!) but I track things by seed and tonight's game is #1 v #1 so I already know that a #1 seed will win and a #1 seed will lose tonight so here are the results by seed in the 39 tournaments since expansion to 64 teams in 1985:

The way to read that is that, looking at the top-left and going across:

• row 1 is for #1 seeds
• 154 (of 156) #1 seeds won their R64 game
• 132 #1 seeds won their R32 game thus making the S16
• 103 #1 seeds won their S16 game thus making the E8
• 63 #1 seeds won their E8 game thus making the F4
• 40 #1 seeds won their F4 game thus making the NCG
• 25 (after tonight) #1 seeds won the NCG thus winning the NC.  

Here it is by percentage:



For all the talk about upsets:

• A grand combined total of just one #13 or below out of 624 has managed to win a second-weekend game.  
• No #9 nor below has ever won a third-weekend game despite there having been 1,248 of them.  
• #1 seeds will have 25 NC's after tonight.  That is five times as many as the next best (#2 seeds have five) and nearly double all other seeds combined (14).  

[medinabuckeye1]

Current (not including the soon-to-be Western additions) B1G teams since the 1985 expansion:
Appearances:

• 33 Michigan State
• 30 Purdue
• 27 Indiana
• 26 Illinois
• 25 Wisconsin
• 23 Maryland
• 23tie Michigan
• 22 Ohio State
• 21 Iowa
• 12 Minnesota
• 8 Nebraska
• 5 Penn State
• 4 Rutgers
• 3 Northwestern

Somebody previously brought up comparing things as ratios of appearances and I thought it was an interesting way to look at it.  I am going to ignore the bottom five teams because the dropoff from #9 Iowa to #10 Minnesota is humongous, as big as the gap between #9 Iowa and #2 Purdue.  

NCAA Appearances per League Title:

• 3.64 Michigan State
• 4.00 Purdue
• 5.71 Indiana
• 5.71tie Ohio State
• 6.67 Wisconsin
• 6.67tie Illinois
• 8.00 Michigan
• 10.00 Maryland (counting their ACC titles as 'equivalent').  
• n/a Iowa - Iowa's last league title was in 1979

NCAA Appearances per S16:

• 1.92 Michigan
• 1.94 Michigan State
• 2.50 Wisconsin
• 2.50tie Purdue
• 2.56 Maryland
• 2.70 Indiana
• 2.75 Ohio State
• 3.71 Illinois
• 7.00 Iowa

NCAA Appearances per E8:

• 2.88 Michigan
• 3.30 Michigan State
• 4.40 Ohio State
• 6.25 Wisconsin
• 6.50 Illinois
• 6.75 Indiana
• 7.50 Purdue
• 11.50 Maryland
• 21 Iowa

NCAA Appearances per F4:

• 4.13 Michigan State
• 4.60 Michigan
• 7.33 Ohio State
• 8.33 Wisconsin
• 9.00 Indiana
• 11.50 Maryland
• 13.00 Illinois
• 30.00 Purdue
• n/a Iowa - Iowa's last F4 was in 1980

It is interesting to me how much Purdue and Michigan are mirror images of one another.  Purdue has a stellar track-record in the regular season.  They have only one fewer league titles and only three fewer NCAA Appearances than the Spartans.  Michigan is decidedly lackluster in those categories with only five league titles in the last 40 seasons (seventh in the league behind MSU, PU, IU, tOSU, UW, and IL) and only 23 NCAA Appearances (tied with UMD for 6th/7th in the league behind MSU, PU, IU, IL, and UW).  Then PU and M are tied in S16's with 12 each (tied for second behind MSU's 17).  After the S16 it is the Wolverines who are stellar and the Boilermakers who are lackluster.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

This is a special case where all bets should be off! If you understandably can't be onsite in Glendale AZ, you were already in Indianapolis! Figure out another flight later. Along with the hotel. Worry about it all later including the added costs and drinking later. The dog boarders will understand.

Is sports trivial? Ultimately yes, sports is a trivial interest. Or more precisely, sports is comparatively trivial to faith, family, health, finances, and livelihoods. But does this triviality of sports mean that sports is meaningless? Certainly not! The individual can invest meaning into the trivial.

I've invested a lot of personal meaning into certain teams and should they advance to a championship round it rewards the meaning invested into those teams. No matter how trivial sports might ultimately be.

For you to blow that off is downright insulting to the years you've invested in your team!

Yeah, but what if I did all that... And then they lost? 

That would be a BRUTAL hung over flight coming home. 

Ever been on a flight to Vegas on a Friday? 

Ever been on a flight out of Vegas on a Sunday? 

[medinabuckeye1]

Grrr!
I'm at a Nursing Home with my mom because she is rehabbing from a surgery. I listened to the pregame show on the radio on the way here but . . .

Her TV remote isn't working so I'm watching a rerun of Everybody Loves Raymond and I can't change the channel.

[bayareabadger]

Lol. There was a degree to which I wanted to stay another night to watch it locally with my Purdue buddies, but I also wanted to get home.

Watching it in Indy would mean figuring out a new flight (possibly crazy cost) another hotel night (Indy was super expensive that weekend due to a Morgan Wallen concert plus the NIT), probably an insanely early flight to get home in time to spring the dog from boarding, a hell of a bar tab from a day of drinking, and having to fly Sunday hung over.

I'm too old for that. It's not like the F4 was at Lucas Oil and I could have gotten a ticket.

Besides, the big one is tomorrow.

I'm reminded of when I lived in Indiana and UW made the title game. Met with a college buddy at a good pizza spot because get in for UW-UK was like $300-plus (his family had tickets, but not enough). 

Two days later, I dropped $150 for the title game. UW lost, but it was quite the experience to be there. Weird to think back because you ask, is it better to lose when you're just outgunned, or when you could've won, played well and the other team just played a bit better?

[grillrat]

Well, Uconn made their shots and we didn't.  The two biggest keys to the game were their ability to score on their penetrative drives and our inability to shoot / attempt 3 pointers.

I think I only counted about 3 or 4 missed shots by Uconn's guards when they drove up the lane.

Congrats Uconn.  Good season Boilers.

Good luck at the next level Zach.  You will forever be a Purdue legend.

[medinabuckeye1]

Her TV remote isn't working so I'm watching a rerun of Everybody Loves Raymond and I can't change the channel.

Yikes!
I think I enjoyed Raymond better than that debacle. From the box score it looks like Edey was dominant both ways and he might as well have been playing with four random spectators for all that the rest of Purdue's team contributed. 

I couldn't even watch and yet I scored as many points as Loyer, Gillis, and Colvin despite their playing a combined 66 minutes. 

[OrangeAfroMan]

This is how little I follow basketball:  I had no idea this year's Final 4 was being played down the street from me.
I don't know whether to laugh or be embarrassed.  

Sorry for Purdue, you guys need one of those NCs in hoops.  
I'm pretty sure Florida could give you one of ours and nobody would notice.

[847badgerfan]

Man, UConn is a steamroller. I don't know that Purdue can stop them.

Steamroller.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Purdue just didn't keep track of all the UConn guys on defense, and nobody except Edey seemed to be interested in playing offense. 

But it is what it is. Got beat by a better team. 

[CatsbyAZ]

Yeah, but what if I did all that... And then they lost?

That would be a BRUTAL hung over flight coming home.

Isn't the prospect of your team losing a core part of following a team? Why watch sports if you're worried about losing? Yes, turn the TV off if it's a blowout, but the win-lose dynamic is what gives sports a high stakes experience. Especially as they might advance toward a championship? 

And the thing about the Final Four is its one of the only sporting events where everybody goes home feeling like a winner. Purdue won one, lost another; there's still a massively important banner getting hung up later this year.

And win or loss, wouldn't you be hung over either way?