header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

 (Read 121652 times)

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 28947
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1918 on: March 21, 2024, 02:16:28 PM »
MSU looking pretty good against msu.
18 point win. Not bad at all.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 28947
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1919 on: March 21, 2024, 02:18:43 PM »
Dubuque is up on BYU, 48-40 with 12 to go.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 9763
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1920 on: March 21, 2024, 02:53:01 PM »
I say either F4 or E8.  The kryptonite to me is South Carolina, who I think they could see in the E8.  Also don't overlook Gonzaga in the S16.  I don't think Kansas will get past them.
Usually I wouldn't know anything about South Carolina basketball but I looked into them a little bit when Lamont Paris seemed like a plausible candidate for the Ohio State job. 

The thing that stuck out to me was that they seemed to be very Jeckyll and Hyde. When they were good they looked REALLY good. In an eight day stretch in late January they:
  • Blew out #6 Kentucky at home
  • Beat Mizzou at home
  • Beat #5 Tennessee in Knoxville 
Wow!

The problem is that when they were bad they were BAD. They lost at home to an LSU team that just flamed out in the first round of the NIT and also to a Georgia team that went 6-12 in the SEC. They also went 0-3 against the SEC's two schools from Alabama with the combined margin of defeat being roughly a thousand points. (That is a slight exaggeration, it was actually 27+40+31=98).


grillrat

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 618
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1921 on: March 21, 2024, 03:01:07 PM »
Duquesne holds on to win.  Had that one in my bracket, so off to a good start.

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 28947
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1922 on: March 21, 2024, 03:01:29 PM »
Dubuque is up on BYU, 48-40 with 12 to go.
Down goes #6 BYU.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 21587
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1923 on: March 21, 2024, 03:07:14 PM »
MSU looking pretty good against msu.
My bracket strategy is to pick MSU to always lose the first game of the weekend (R64, S16, F4), because Izzo is so good in the 2nd game.  But I think I need to make an exception for when mid-MSU teams who I don't trust to make the Sweet 16 play another mid P5 school, because Izzo seems to never trip up there, unless it's UCLA.  And really it hasn't been overly close...

18 over Mississippi State, 10 over USC last year, 20 over Miami in 2017, 7 over Georgia in 2015, 12 over Marquette in 2007, and 15 over Colorado in 2003.  Those are the last 6 times MSU played a P5 school in a 7-10 or 8-9 game, aside from UCLA.  When they get got in the first round, it's generally to a probably underseeded mid-major.  Nevada, George Mason, Middle Tennessee.

In a battle of mids, MSU seems to be fine

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 9763
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1924 on: March 21, 2024, 03:33:12 PM »
Down goes #6 BYU.
I should have shared this BEFORE the tournament when it might have helped some people but based on my analysis of the Tournament, I think the 11's are likely to do really well this year and the 12's will likely do worse than usual.  

Thought process:
Off the top of my head, it seems that typically the last of the at-large teams are #11 or #12 seeds.  That means that while the #12 seeds are "tallest midget" auto-bids, they tend to be the VERY best of the tall midgets so they are capable.  This year there ended up being more bid thieves than usual so the last of the at-large teams (the play-in at-large teams) were all #10 seeds.  Thus, the very best of the tall midgets will be #11 seeds.  Thus, I suspect that the #11's this year are pretty good tall midgets while the #12's this year are a little off from their usual.  We'll see.  

For reference, here are the number of each seed to win their first round game out of the 152 of each seed that have played in the 38 previous tournaments since expansion to 64 in 1985:

Note that #9 winning more than #8 is the ONLY instance where any seed has done better than a better seed.  What is interesting about that, however, is that despite the #9 seeds having a slight advantage (79-73 or 80-73 including MSU's win earlier today) in the first round, the #8 seeds have done MUCH better at every level beyond that:
  • #8 seeds are 16-57 (0.219) in the second round compared to just 8-71 (0.101) for #9 seeds.  The gap is actually worse though because both times that a #16 took out a #1, they lost to a #9 in the second round.  Thus, #8 seeds are 16-57 (0.219) against #1 seeds while #9 seeds are just 6-71 (0.077).  #8 seeds are twice as likely to make the S16 and when a #8 or #9 seed faces a #1 seed, the #8 seed is roughly three times as likely to win.  
  • #8 seeds have made it to the E8 nine times compared to just five for #9 seeds.  
  • #8 seeds have made three times as many F4 appearances as #9 seeds (6-2).  
  • #8 seeds have won have a winning record in national semi-finals (4-2) and have won a National Championship while #9 seeds have never won a game after the second weekend.  

The 5-12 upset stands out and gets a lot of attention because the dropoff after the  #12 seeds is pretty severe.  #13 seeds have 21 less wins than #12 seeds, winning roughly one out of five where #12 seeds win roughly one in three.  After that it is even worse, the #14, #15, and #16 have less wins combined than the #12's and only slightly more than the #13's.  

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 28947
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1925 on: March 21, 2024, 03:50:28 PM »
Yeah, OK Matt. You got non-B1G refs now. Let's see how that goes.

U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 41514
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1926 on: March 21, 2024, 04:05:31 PM »
Big Ten Ref Kelly Pfeifer had the Creighton game

blew out a shoe
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 21587
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1927 on: March 21, 2024, 04:13:18 PM »
Big Ten Ref Kelly Pfeifer had the Creighton game

blew out a shoe
I thought refs weren't tied to conferences for basketball

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 28947
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1928 on: March 21, 2024, 04:14:56 PM »
I thought refs weren't tied to conferences for basketball
I think that changed back.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 41514
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1929 on: March 21, 2024, 04:24:29 PM »
I don't know
I do know that Kelly does plenty of Husker games and Big Ten games
He lives near Mitchell, SD
He's left tickets for me a couple times.
I don't bother him often
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 28947
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1930 on: March 21, 2024, 04:41:45 PM »
Illinois getting all it can handle from Morehead State. 39-38 UI at the half.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 41514
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1931 on: March 21, 2024, 04:45:33 PM »
Who Doesn't like Morehead???

I'm watching
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.