2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[bayareabadger]

This is like 2014 in football, and that year Jerry Kill went 8-5 and finished 2nd in the West, after being picked 5th, and won it over Urban.

That made me convinced that no matter how weak the other options are, the preseason favorite is never going to win it

That one was weird because at the point it was handed out, OSU was a bit disappointing, vibes-wise. Minnesota had weirdly good vibes, mostly because they went 8-4 and had like one non-bad loss. 

Honestly, that year was so weird. Wisconsin had hype, then started sluggishly, then B1G West-ed to a 7-game winning streak with piss-awful QB play. MSU was preseason top-10 and got blown up defensively at home vs OSU. And OSU had that Va. Tech loss and only two ranked wins (though the QB thing was in their favor).

It feels like if you're the favorite, you just gotta rampage and hope no one else interesting pops up. That's the best case for Painter. And it's ironic because Hoiburg made his own case by not breaking through before this. 

[medinabuckeye1]

IMHO, Michigan State's home win over Northwestern locked up a bid for the Spartans.  They are "only" 10-9/18-12 so if they lose out they'll finish .500 in the league (below .500 if you count the BTT loss) and just 18-14 overall.  For most teams that record probably wouldn't be enough but Michigan State isn't most teams.  KenPom credits them with the 11th toughest SoS in the country and they are #22 in NET and #19 in KenPom.  

Northwestern is a game better in the league (11-8) and two games better overall (20-10) but they've done it on a much easier SoS, #42 per KenPom so they have much lower computer numbers:  #53 in NET and #45 in KenPom.  Overall I still think they look like a tournament team and not many major conference teams with 20 wins get left out but if Northwestern loses at home on Saturday to Minnesota, I think they could be in trouble.  

Speaking of Minnesota, they hosted the Hoosiers last night and it did not go well.  The first half was competitive but Indiana built a five point halftime lead and Minnesota couldn't close the gap at any point in the second half.  The Gophers' record (9-10/18-12) isn't all that bad and for most teams that would be enough to have a decent spot on or around the bubble but Minnesota isn't most teams.  Their SoS is an embarrassment (#85 per KenPom) and their computer numbers are ugly:  #82 NET, #72 KenPom.  

Indiana picked up the win in Minneapolis last night but in order to make the Tournament they are going to need to beat Michigan State at home on Sunday then win a bunch more games in Minneapolis next week and into next weekend.  That said, they are making a late push.  A couple weeks ago they lost at Penn State to drop to 14-13/6-10.  At that point they had lost four straight and eight of 10 and I was ready to write them off.  Since then they have three wins that were all impressive:

• Home win over Wisconsin - This wasn't an "upset" only because we used it as a catalyst to drop UW a tier.  
• Road win in College Park, upset.  
• Road win in Minneapolis, upset.  

Indiana has the #14 SoS per KenPom but they are only #92 in KenPom and #95 in NET so they have a LOT of work to do.  If they don't lose again until St. Patrick's Day they'll finish 21-14 and I *THINK* that those wins would be good enough to substantially upgrade their NET/KenPom so that would probably get them in but that is the only realistic at-large scenario for the Hoosiers IMHO.  

Indiana now has four positive upsets (@M on 12/5, @tOSU on 2/6, @UMD on 3/3, and @MN last night) and only one negative upset (vsPSU on 2/3) so you might be wondering why I didn't move them up a tier.  Well, the difference between Tier-4 and Tier-3 is the projected result in home games against Tier-2 and road games against Tier-5:

• W at Michigan on 12/5
• L vs Northwestern on 2/18
• L vs Nebraska on 2/21
• TBD vs Michigan State on 3/10

Even if they do beat the Spartans this weekend they'll still only be even in these games so no need to move them up.  

The race for the double-byes:
Purdue (outright B1G Champions) and Illinois have clinched the #1 and #2 seeds respectively and there are two more double-byes to be claimed.  

Nebraska and Wisconsin control their own destiny in this regard.  If Nebraska wins in Ann Arbor on Sunday they get Thursday off and will not play again until Friday.  Wisconsin has a tougher path as they have two games left and one of them is against the aforementioned outright B1G Champions and if that isn't bad enough, the game is in Mackey.  Good luck with that Badgers.  That said, IF Wisconsin wins out, they will get Thursday off.  

Northwestern doesn't technically control their own destiny but they practically control their own destiny.  They don't control their own destiny mathematically because even if they win this weekend (vsMN) they would lose a three-way tie with UNL and UW so in theory they could beat Minnesota and still not get a double-bye.  That seems extremely unlikely but it is mathematically possible.  

If at least two out of three of UNL/UW/NU fail to win out then at least one team with a record of 11-9 or worse will get a double bye.  Teams that could finish 11-9 are:

• Nebraska - if they lose in Ann Arbor on Sunday
• Northwestern - if they lose at home to Minnesota on Saturday
• Wisconsin - if they split their last two - vsRU tonight, @PU on Sunday
• Iowa - if they win at home vsIL on Sunday
• MSU - if they win in Bloomington on Sunday

I, of course, am rooting for a 5-way tie for 3rd/4th/5th/6th/7th.  

The race to avoid playing on Wednesday:
The only teams locked into playing on Wednesday are Michigan and Maryland.  Michigan locked up the #14 seed a week ago as they can do no better than three games out of 13th place.  Maryland is more complicated, see below:

What we definitively know about the Wednesday teams is that they will each have at least 11 league losses.  Other than Michigan, the teams that mathematically could finish with 11 or more losses are:

• 9-10 Indiana, vsMSU
• 9-10 Minnesota, atNU
• 8-11 Ohio State, atRU
• 8-11 Penn State, vsUMD
• 7-11 Rutgers, atUW, vstOSU
• 7-12 Maryland, atPSU

Three of those six will play on Wednesday.  Two will face each other and the third will play Michigan.  

If Maryland wins on Sunday they will finish 8-12 and so will Penn State.  Maryland will have swept Penn State so that helps in tiebreakers.  The rest of the potentially relevant tiebreakers are bad news for Maryland:

• They lost their only game against Ohio State.  
• They split with Rutgers.  

Maryland would win a three-way tie with Penn State and Rutgers but that would only get them the #11 seed and a date with Michigan next Wednesday.  Maryland's best-case-scenario is a four-way tie for 10th place at 8-12 with Ohio State, Penn State, and Rutgers.  The first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H:

• 3-2 Ohio State (no game in College Park)
• 3-2 Maryland (no home game vs tOSU, won in Piscataway, won in State College, lost at home to RU)
• 2-3 Penn State (no home game vs RU, won in Piscataway, lost at home to UMD)
• 2-3 Rutgers (no game in State College, won in College Park, lost at home to PSU and UMD)

In that case:

• Ohio State gets the #10 seed based on record against Purdue.  
• Maryland gets the #11 seed.  
• Penn State gets the #12 seed based on record against Illinois.  
• Rutgers gets the #13 seed.  

Thus, Michigan and Maryland will be playing on Wednesday.  The other two teams will be two out of five of IU/MN/tOSU/PSU/RU.  

[medinabuckeye1]

FWIW, Ohio State does NOT control their own destiny vis-a-vis avoiding a Wednesday game because there is a scenario in which Ohio State wins in Piscataway on Sunday and ends up playing on Wednesday anyway.  It is complicated but here goes:

If Ohio State wins in Piscataway they will finish 9-11.  They will be ahead of Michigan, Maryland, and Rutgers and no worse than tied with Penn State.  

Ohio State and Penn State split their series this year and Ohio State has a better win (second tiebreaker is record against the best team in the league) so the Buckeyes would win a two-way tie with Penn State.  The problem is that Indiana could also finish 9-11 (by losing to MSU) and the Hoosiers swept the Buckeyes.  In the event of a three-way tie between PSU, IU, and tOSU at 9-11 for 9th/10th/11th, H2H:

• 3-1 Penn State - Swept IU, split with tOSU
• 2-2 Indiana - Swept tOSU, swept by PSU
• 1-3 Ohio State - Split with PSU, swept by IU

Thus, Ohio State would lose the tie and get the #11 seed and a date with Michigan on Wednesday.  I actually think this might be the best-case-scenario for Ohio State.  

By losing that tie the Buckeyes get a game they definitely should win against Michigan on Wednesday.  Beating a bad Michigan team isn't going to do much for NET/KenPom but it helps with win volume and overall record.  Assuming a win on Wednesday, the #11 plays the #6 on Thursday and I don't think that the #6 seed will be a substantially better team right now than the #7 or #8 so the Thursday game isn't much tougher.  The biggest advantage of the #11 seed is it puts you on a path that avoids the top-2 until Saturday and the top-2 are substantially better than #3 and below so Ohio State's Friday game, assuming they make it that far, would be a LOT easier than #9 PSU or #10 IU who would be playing PU and IL respectively. 

[847badgerfan]

Any chance that Purdue could sleepwalk on Sunday against the Badgers?

[FearlessF]

about the same chance that Hoiberg can win on the road vs Michigan

[ELA]

IMHO, Michigan State's home win over Northwestern locked up a bid for the Spartans.  They are "only" 10-9/18-12 so if they lose out they'll finish .500 in the league (below .500 if you count the BTT loss) and just 18-14 overall.  For most teams that record probably wouldn't be enough but Michigan State isn't most teams.  KenPom credits them with the 11th toughest SoS in the country and they are #22 in NET and #19 in KenPom. 

Northwestern is a game better in the league (11-8) and two games better overall (20-10) but they've done it on a much easier SoS, #42 per KenPom so they have much lower computer numbers:  #53 in NET and #45 in KenPom.  Overall I still think they look like a tournament team and not many major conference teams with 20 wins get left out but if Northwestern loses at home on Saturday to Minnesota, I think they could be in trouble. 

I still think MSU needs 1 more win to feel safe.

It's not just MSU's SOS, it's that they've won convincingly, and lost close, by at large.  I think the two losses to Wisconsin are their only double digit losses.

• OT to JMU
• 9 to Duke
• 6 at Arizona
• 7 at Nebraska
• 3 at Illinois
• 3 at Minnesota
• 7 to Iowa
• 3 to OSU
• 6 at Purdue

In 6 of those 9 games they held leads in the second half.  So the efficiency metrics like them

Problem is that prior to last night they were 1-8 in games decided by 7 points or less, with the lone win being on the road at Maryland, when they blew a 16 point lead, and hung on.  For a team that starts FOUR seniors, that is extremely problematic, and an indictment on leadership.

[ELA]

https://twitter.com/brewbadgers/status/1765512281700319301?t=qH1DkXOxWuD5Is3FZl2plw&s=19

[medinabuckeye1]

I still think MSU needs 1 more win to feel safe.

It's not just MSU's SOS, it's that they've won convincingly, and lost close, by at large.  I think the two losses to Wisconsin are their only double digit losses.

• OT to JMU
• 9 to Duke
• 6 at Arizona
• 7 at Nebraska
• 3 at Illinois
• 3 at Minnesota
• 7 to Iowa
• 3 to OSU
• 6 at Purdue

In 6 of those 9 games they held leads in the second half.  So the efficiency metrics like them

Problem is that prior to last night they were 1-8 in games decided by 7 points or less, with the lone win being on the road at Maryland, when they blew a 16 point lead, and hung on.  For a team that starts FOUR seniors, that is extremely problematic, and an indictment on leadership.

I think that the combination of their impressive SoS and their Big wins/little losses has given them computer numbers good enough to secure a spot even at 18-14 but I understand your point because 18-14 would be among the worst records EVER to receive an at-large bid.

Part of the reason I think they are safe is that there is almost no chance of them absorbing a truly bad loss.

Indiana isn't great but a road loss to them isn't awful.

Michigan State has secured a Wednesday bye so a loss in their BTT opener would likely be to a bubble 🫧 team. Specifically, I've run out a few scenarios for my team (trying to figure out if they can make it) and several of them have tOSU meeting MSU in either the 6v11/14 game or the 7v10 game. A loss to the Buckeyes or a similarly situated team wouldn't be good for MSU but it wouldn't be awful either.

Like you, I'm a little hesitant to call them a lock with 18-14 a possibility but it would be a REALLY good 18-14, possibility the best ever.

[boilerbanger]

Any chance that Purdue could sleepwalk on Sunday against the Badgers?

No chance, Senior day for Edey, Gillis, Mortan, Jones ... spring break so only 1/2 Paint Crew, but the crowd will be rocking.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Any chance that Purdue could sleepwalk on Sunday against the Badgers?

<checks calendar>

Nah, too early in March. 

[bayareabadger]

No chance, Senior day for Edey, Gillis, Mortan, Jones ... spring break so only 1/2 Paint Crew, but the crowd will be rocking.

Sometimes a loss to refocus is good and healthy. I would prescribe one for Purdue in that game.

[847badgerfan]

Sometimes a loss to refocus is good and healthy. I would prescribe one for Purdue in that game.

It sure has worked wonders for the Badgers, I'll tell ya.

[ELA]

No chance, Senior day for Edey, Gillis, Mortan, Jones ... spring break so only 1/2 Paint Crew, but the crowd will be rocking.

I actually think sometimes this isn't such a bad thing now.  Izzo has old man yelling at cloud lamented that the student section isn't what it used to be.  It's more for the Instagram clout of having camped out for that seat.

The couple times a year they do the "Old Zone", where they offer former Izzone members the chance to fill those seats during Winter/Spring Break, I think the crowd is actually better.  Probably not everywhere, but at the few true basketball first schools (MSU, IU, PU), I think it works.  Those 25-40 year olds get one chance to relive their better days, and to quote the late great...



https://youtu.be/ldQrapQ4d0Y?si=V0TAq0xqZAGAoJXK

[ELA]

Hopefully nobody had Pacific in their WCC bracket



And in case you think this is some random lopsided match, no, this is the play in game between the 8 and 9 seeds