2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Over in the Women's game Iowa beat Minnesota to improve to 14-3 but that wasn't enough to keep them in the B1G Title race because Ohio State beat Michigan to improve to 16-1 and clinch an outright B1G Title.

Ohio State travels to Carver-Hawkeye on Sunday at 1pm for possibly the most anticipated Women's Basketball game of all time. The game is a sellout and tickets are trading on secondary markets for prices that are absolutely unheard of for a Women's Basketball game. 

If you can't make it to Iowa City or afford a ticket you can watch the game on Fox.

[medinabuckeye1]

I'll be updating the tiers tomorrow after taking tonight's games into account.  

One possibility I'd like to discuss is that IF Ohio State wins their home game against Nebraska tonight, I think they should move back up to Tier-3 but it is a borderline case and it involves my team so I'd appreciate the thoughts of others.  

The difference between Tier-4 (where the Buckeyes are currently) and Tier-3 is the projected results in home games against Tier-2 and road games against Tier-5.  There are four such games but the Buckeyes do not host Northwestern nor Michigan State so Ohio State only plays two:

• At Michigan L on 1/15
• Vs Nebraska tonight.  

If the Buckeyes win tonight, they'll be 1-1 so we either leave them in Tier-4 where they'd be +1 in upsets with three up and two down or move them up to Tier-3 where they'd be -1 in upsets with two up and three down.  

It is somewhat of a six-and-one-half-dozen-the-other proposition but if they DO beat Nebraska tonight I think we should move them up due to the timing of the upsets.  They are:

• Home loss to Wisconsin on 1/10
• Road loss to Michigan on 1/15 (upset only if we move them up)
• Home loss to Indiana on 2/6
• Home win over Purdue on 1/18
• Road win over Michigan State on 2/25
• Home win over Nebraska on 2/29 (Upset only IF they win AND we don't move them up).  

If the Buckeyes win tonight, they'll have three positive upsets in their last four games while all the negative upsets were 2/6 and earlier.  Thus, I feel that IF Ohio State beats Nebraska tonight they should be moved up because I feel like they are a MUCH better team now than they were when they suffered their negative upsets in January and early February.  

All of this said, I don't want to infect the conference-wide projections with Buckeye-fan bias so I don't want to make this move without getting input from neutral fans on the subject.  

[boilerbanger]

@medinabuckeye1 I would agree with that if they beat Nebraska tonight

[ELA]

This is why I hate the "judging the team going to the CFP/tourney" argument.  What if OSU wins out, wins a couple in the BTT.  So with the team/coaching staff they are bringing to the tournament, they are what?  7-1, with wins against Purdue and at Michigan State?  That's a tourney team.

It should work both ways.

Teams in the top 4 going into CCGs should rest their starters.  Because then they'll all be healthy, and so that game without them doesn't count

[MaximumSam]

Buckeyes looking like Holtmann's teams used to look

[medinabuckeye1]

This is why I hate the "judging the team going to the CFP/tourney" argument.  What if OSU wins out, wins a couple in the BTT.  So with the team/coaching staff they are bringing to the tournament, they are what?  7-1, with wins against Purdue and at Michigan State?  That's a tourney team.

It should work both ways.

Teams in the top 4 going into CCGs should rest their starters.  Because then they'll all be healthy, and so that game without them doesn't count

7-2 assuming 2-1 in Minneapolis. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Buckeyes looking like Holtmann's teams used to look

If you look in a mirror.

1-3 in Holtmann's last four, 3-1 in the first four without him despite playing Purdue, at Michigan State, and a 20-win Nebraska team. Three tournament teams and a bubble team.

[MaximumSam]

If you look in a mirror.

1-3 in Holtmann's last four, 3-1 in the first four without him despite playing Purdue, at Michigan State, and a 20-win Nebraska team. Three tournament teams and a bubble team.

Just like Holtmann's team used to look. Moving the ball and making plays. Sort of why I'm sanguine about Diebler getting the job. Holtmann deservedly went, but also wasn't bad and had a lot of good things going, so it's not just throwing a lifeline. Though I would still bet on Miller.

[ELA]

https://twitter.com/_Andrew_Lopez/status/1763412619023573501?t=TXBZElfRFo3xQqPZFfd2Yw&s=19

[MaximumSam]

https://twitter.com/_Andrew_Lopez/status/1763412619023573501?t=TXBZElfRFo3xQqPZFfd2Yw&s=19

I rarely watch whole NBA games, but watching highlights of him is like watching CGI basketball. Like that can't be real.

[medinabuckeye1]

Based on the case I laid out yesterday, Ohio State's win last night, and @boilerbanger 's concurrence I pushed Ohio State back up to Tier-3.  Updated tiers:

• Purdue -1, Illinois -2
• Northwestern +1, Nebraska, Michigan State -2 (+1/-3)
• Wisconsin +2 (+3/-1), Minnesota -1 (+1/-2), Iowa (+2/-2), Maryland (+3/-3), Rutgers -1 (+1/-2), Ohio State -1 (+2/-3)
• Penn State +2 (+3/-1), Indiana +1 (+2/-1)
• Michigan +2 (+3/-1)

Upsets so far have been:


Updated projected final standings and seeds for the B1G Tournament:

• 16-4/27-4 Purdue
• 15-5/24-7 Illinois
• 13-7/22-9 Northwestern
• 12-8/22-9 Nebraska
• 11-9/19-12 Wisconsin (wins tie with MSU based on H2H, won in E. Lansing)
• 11-9/19-12 Michigan State
• 10-10/19-12 Minnesota
• 9-11/15-16 Penn State (wins tie with IA based on record against IL)
• 9-11/17-14 Iowa
• 8-12/18-13 Ohio State (wins tie with RU and UMD based on H2H2H of 2-1, no game in College Park)
• 8-12/16-15 Rutgers (second in tie with tOSU and UMD based on H2H2H of 2-2 split with both)
• 8-12/16-15 Maryland (last in tie with tOSU and RU based on H2H2H of 1-2, did not host tOSU, won at RU, lost at home to RU)
• 7-13/15-16 Indiana
• 3-17/8-23 Michigan

Based on those projections the match-ups for the B1G Tournament at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota would be:
Wednesday, March 13 (Peacock):

• #11 Rutgers vs #14 Michigan, 9pm
• #12 Maryland vs #13 Indiana, 630

Thursday, March 14 (BTN):

• #5 Wisconsin vs UMD/IU, 230
• #6 Michigan State vs RU/M, 9pm
• #7 Minnesota vs #10 Ohio State, 630
• #8 Penn State vs #9 Iowa, noon

Friday, March 15 (BTN):

• #1 Purdue vs PSU/IA, noon
• #2 Illinois vs MN/tOSU, 630
• #3 Northwestern vs MSU/RU/M, 9pm
• #4 Nebraska vs UW/UMD/IU, 230

Saturday, March 16 (CBS):

• PU/PSU/IA vs UNL/UW/UMD/IU, 1pm
• IL/MN/tOSU vs NU/MSU/RU/M, 330

Sunday, St. Patrick's Day, March 17 (CBS):

• PU/PSU/IA/UNL/UW/UMD/IU vs IL/MN/tOSU/NU/MSU/RU/M, 330

[medinabuckeye1]

Well if you've been under a rock and haven't heard, the biggest BB media event in the league this weekend is that Iowa is hosting a Women's Basketball game in which their star Caitlin Clark will likely break the all-time scoring record.  

The #2 ranked Outright B1G Champion Ohio State Buckeyes are visiting Iowa City for a showdown at Carver-Hawkeye with the #6 ranked Iowa Hawkeyes.  The game is at 1pm on Sunday and will be broadcast on Fox.  

I believe that Clark needs 18 points to break the record and if you are thinking that she might not make it because her team is playing the best the B1G has to offer, I would advise you to have a look at her stats from the teams' earlier meeting in Columbus.  In that game Clark had 45 points in 43 minutes (game went to OT) on 12-25 shooting including 7-18 from deep and she went 14/16 on FT's.  

Clark has announced that this (her fourth) will be her last year as a Hawkeye so this is her "last" home game (Although I think the NCAA Women's Tournament has some early round games hosted by high seeds).  

[medinabuckeye1]

League Title Race:
There are three teams mathematically in the race:

• 14-3 Purdue is close to clinching
• 12-5 Illinois needs a LOT of help
• 11-6 Northwestern would need to win out (vsIA, @MSU, vsMN) AND they would need PU to lose out AND they would need Illinois to lose one of their remaining games but not the one against PU.  All of that would get NU into a 3-way tie for the league title at 14-6.  

The race should be decided this weekend:

• Purdue hosts Michigan State Saturday at 8 (Fox)
• Illinois visits Wisconsin Saturday at 1 (BTN)

If Purdue or Wisconsin wins, Purdue clinches a share of the title.  If Purdue AND Wisconsin win Purdue clinches an outright title.  If Neither Purdue nor Wisconsin wins then Tuesday's game in Champaign gets REALLY interesting.  In that case Illinois would host Purdue on Tuesday with a chance to pull into a tie for first place at 14-5.  I certainly don't think it is going to happen but it is the most interesting potential finish to the conference race.  


This is an interesting weekend because most of the league is playing games against teams reasonably close to them in the standings.  Using the current standings:

• #1 Purdue hosts #6 Michigan State
• #2 Illinois visits #4 Wisconsin
• #3 Northwestern hosts #7 Iowa
• #5 Nebraska hosts #10/11 Rutgers
• #8 Minnesota hosts #9 Penn State
• #10/11 Indiana visits #12/13 Maryland
• #12/13 Ohio State hosts #14 Michigan

I feel like the bulk of these games could realistically go either way.  

[medinabuckeye1]

This posts is focused on Ohio State, not conference-wide but I am interested in the thoughts of others on Ohio State's potential Tournament chances. 

After the win over Nebraska, Ohio State is now:

• 17-12 overall
• 7-11 in the league
• #57 in KenPom with the #38 O, the #94 D, and the #35 SoS
• #63 in NET, 3-6 in Q1, 2-5 in Q2, 7-1 in Q3, and 5-0 in Q4 (they said during the broadcast last night that tOSU was undefeated in Q3 and Q4 but the 7-1 listed here is according to the NET site)

Their remaining games are at home against Michigan on Sunday (4pm on CBS) and at Rutgers next Sunday (2pm on BTN).  Michigan is #129 in NET and that game is at home so it is Q3, Rutgers is #90 in NET and that game is on the road so it is Q2. 

The tiers say that Ohio State will beat Michigan at home and lose to Rutgers on the road resulting in:

• 18-13 overall
• 8-12 in the league
• not much change in KenPom, maybe a slight dip
• 3-6Q1, 2-6Q2, 8-1Q3, 5-0Q4

Is there any plausible path from there to an at-large bid?  Assuming the rest of the projections hold up, tOSU's BTT path would be:

• vs #7 Minnesota on Thursday - MN is #76 in NET so this is Q2
• vs #2 Illinois on Friday - IL is #16 in NET so this is Q1
• vs NU/MSU/RU/M on Saturday - Q1 if it is NU/MSU, Q2 if RU, and Q3 if M
• B1GCG on Sunday against TBD - Probably Q1 because it would probably be PU but you never know. 

What would they need? 

• Beat MN, lose to IL results in 19-14, not enough IMHO
• Beat MN and IL, lose to NU or MSU on Saturday results in 20-14, close IMHO
• Beat MN, IL, and NU/MSU, lose to PU results in 21-14, I think this would sneak in. 

Alternatively, if the Buckeyes beat Michigan AND win in Piscataway they would finish the regular season:

• 19-12 overall
• 9-11 in the league
• Probably a Slight upgrade in KenPom
• 3-6Q1, 3-5Q2, 8-1Q3, 5-0Q4

The path from here looks a lot more clear, first (updated to account for tOSU winning in Piscataway but all else as projected):

Updated projected final standings and seeds for the B1G Tournament:

• 16-4/27-4 Purdue
• 15-5/24-7 Illinois
• 13-7/22-9 Northwestern
• 12-8/22-9 Nebraska
• 11-9/19-12 Wisconsin (wins tie with MSU based on H2H, won in E. Lansing)
• 11-9/19-12 Michigan State
• 10-10/19-12 Minnesota
• 9-11/17-14 Iowa (first in tie with PSU and tOSU based on H2H2H, no game in Columbus)
• 9-11/15-16 Penn State (second in H2H2H with IA and tOSU based on H2H2H of 2-2, split with both)
• 9-11/19-12 Ohio State (last in tie with IA and PSU based on H2H2H, does not host IA)
• 8-12/16-15 Maryland
• 7-13/15-16 Rutgers (I don't know or care who wins the 12/13 tie because it only determines jersey color in the 12/13 game on Wednesday)
• 7-13/15-16 Indiana
• 3-17/8-23 Michigan

Ohio State's path at the B1G Tournament at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota would be:



Thursday, March 14 (BTN):

• vs #7 Minnesota at 630 - Q2

Friday, March 15 (BTN):

• vs #2 Illinois at 630 - Q1

Saturday, March 16 (CBS):

• vs NU/MSU/RU/M at 1pm - probably Q1

Sunday, St. Patrick's Day, March 17 (CBS):

• vs PU/PSU/IA/UNL/UW/RU/IU at 330 - probably Q1

Beating Rutgers doesn't change Ohio State's path.  They go from getting the #10 seed by finishing first in a three-way tie with RU and UMD for 10/11/12 to finishing last in a three way tie with IA and PSU for 8/9/10.  Either way they get the #10 seed and a path of:

• MN on Thursday, Q2
• IL on Friday, Q1
• NU/MSU/RU/M on Saturday, probably Q1
• Probably PU on Sunday, probably Q1

What would do it?

• Beat MN, lose to IL, finish 20-13 - probably not enough
• Beat MN and IL, lose to NU/MSU, finish 21-13 - might do it
• Beat MN, IL, and NU/MSU, lose to PU, finish 22-13 - I think this is in. 

Bottom line, IMHO:

• The home game against Michigan is an absolute must win. 
• If they lose in Piscataway they might sneak in with a semi-final loss but they probably need to make it to the CG.  Even that, while probably enough, might not do it. 
• If they win in Piscataway then they'd have a slim chance with a loss on Friday, a good chance with a semi-final loss, and I think they'd be a lock if they made it to the CG. 

What say you?