2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

I’d have to do a bit of study, but OSU would go to the BTT a pretty soft 19-13.

If they win out, you’re looking at 3 Q1 wins, 3 Q2, one Q3 loss. Need a lot in the conference tournament to help that.

Fair point.  Current:

• 3-6 Q1
• 1-5 Q2
• 7-1 Q3
• 5-0 Q4

Remaining games:

• vs UNL #41 Q2
• vs M #120 Q3
• @ RU #98 Q2

So if you assume winning out (which you more-or-less have to in order to get to an at-large bid):

• 3-6 Q1
• 3-5 Q2
• 8-1 Q3
• 5-0 Q4
• 19-12 overall, 9-11 in conference

As of current projections that would put them in a 4-way tie with Maryland, Penn State, and Iowa for 8th/9th/10th/11th in the league.  H2H2H2H records:

• 3-2 Maryland (does not host tOSU, won in Iowa City)
• 3-3 Penn State (home wins, road losses)
• 2-2 Ohio State (does not host IA, does not visit College Park, home wins, road losses)
• 2-3 Iowa (does not visit Columbus, lost at home to Maryland)

Thus:
Maryland would get the #8 seed and Iowa would get the #11 seed.  Penn State and Ohio State would move to the next tiebreaker where the Buckeyes would win based on their win over Purdue so:

• Ohio State gets the #9 seed
• Penn State gets the #10 seed

That is probably bad news for the Buckeyes because their match-ups would be:

• vs #8 Maryland on Thursday Q2
• vs #1 Purdue on Friday Q1

If they need two wins, that is rough*.  


I think they would HAVE to beat Maryland.  If that was all they accomplished, they'd finish:

• 3-7 Q1 additional loss to PU in BTT
• 4-5 Q2 additional win over UMD in BTT
• 8-1 Q3
• 5-0 Q4
• 20-12 overall, 9-11 in B1G, 10-12 in B1G games including Tournament.  

They'd frankly be a lot better off to lose the tie and get the #11 seed.  


*Having Purdue as your Friday opponent is good news/bad news/really good news:

• The good news is you have to play the reigning POTY and one of the best teams in the country so you aren't expected to win so the loss shouldn't hurt you.  
• The bad news is you have to play the reigning POTY and one of the best teams in the country so you aren't likely to win.  
• The really good news is that if you DO somehow win, is is a REALLY good win.  

The "X factor" might just be whether or not the committee had any recency bias.  In the old days they used to specifically list "last 10 games".  They don't anymore, but I don't know that I'd completely rule out the committee considering it, perhaps only as a sort-of tiebreaker.  

In the scenario of Ohio State winning their last three regular season games, then beating Maryland and losing to Purdue in the BTT, they would be 7-3 in their last 10 and it is an impressive 7-3:

• Home win over UMD, Q2
• Road loss to Wisconsin, Q1
• Home win over Purdue, Q1
• Road loss to Minnesota, Q2 (NOTE, this is RIGHT on the line between Q1 and Q2)
• Road win over Michigan State, Q1
• Home win over Nebraska, Q2
• Home win over Michigan, Q3
• Road win over Rutgers, Q2
• Neutral win over Maryland, Q2
• Neutral loss to Purdue, Q1

So that is:

• 2-2 Q1
• 4-1 Q2
• 1-0 Q3

[medinabuckeye1]

Here is what 247 says about Ohio State:

OHIO STATE (16-12, 6-11)

Numbers to know: KenPom: 62; KPI: 57; NET: 66; SOS: 36

Current standing: Out

The scoop: Ohio State has lots of work to do and could use some help, but the fired-coach bump seems real. Ohio State stunned both Purdue and Michigan State after parting ways with Chris Holtmann. Win out against Nebraska, Michigan and Rutgers and add a couple more in the Big Ten Tournament? Crazier things have happened… That non-conference win over Alabama still looks pretty darn good right now, too.

[ELA]

2/26 resume bracket update

NCAA
MIDWEST

• #1 PURDUE vs. #16 South Dakota State/Norfolk State
• #8 Gonzaga vs. #9 Wake Forest
• #5 TCU vs. #12 Boise State/Colorado
• #4 Dayton vs. #13 McNeese State
• #3 Iowa State vs. #14 Akron
• #6 South Carolina vs. #11 Virginia
• #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Nevada
• #2 Marquette vs. #15 Youngstown State

SOUTH

• #1 Houston vs. #16 Merrimack/Southern
• #8 Mississippi State vs. #9 Colorado State
• #5 WISCONSIN vs. #12 Grand Canyon
• #4 Creighton vs. #13 Samford
• #3 Duke vs. #14 Louisiana Tech
• #6 Kentucky vs. #11 Seton Hall
• #7 BYU vs. #10 MICHIGAN STATE
• #2 Tennessee vs. #15 Morehead State

EAST

• #1 Connecticut vs. #16 Fairfield
• #8 Washington State vs. #9 Texas
• #5 Florida vs. #12 James Madison
• #4 ILLINOIS vs. #13 Vermont
• #3 Alabama vs. #14 High Point
• #6 Clemson vs. #11 Providence
• #7 NEBRASKA vs. #10 Indiana State
• #2 Kansas vs. #15 Colgate

WEST

• #1 North Carolina vs.#16 Lipscomb
• #8 NORTHWESTERN vs. #9 Florida Atlantic
• #5 San Diego State vs. #12 Ole Miss/St. John's
• #4 Baylor vs. #13 UNC Wilmington
• #3 Auburn vs. #14 UC Irvine
• #6 Texas Tech vs. #11 Princeton
• #7 Utah State vs. #10 Saint Mary's
• #2 Arizona vs. #15 Eastern Washington

NIT
ALBUQUERQUE

• #1 New Mexico vs. #8 Grambling
• #4 Xavier vs. #5 SMU
• #3 Cincinnati vs. #6 OHIO STATE
• #2 Syracuse vs. #7 Cornell

INDIANAPOLIS

• #1 Butler vs. #8 Little Rock
• #4 South Florida vs. #5 Richmond
• #3 Oregon vs. #6 MARYLAND
• #2 Pittsburgh vs. #7 Charleston

PHILADELPHIA

• #1 Villanova vs. #8 Eastern Kentucky
• #4 Virginia Tech vs. #5 MINNESOTA
• #3 Drake vs. #6 San Francisco
• #2 Kansas State vs. #7 UC San Diego

SALT LAKE CITY

• #1 Utah vs. #8 Sam Houston State
• #4 Texas A&M vs. #5 Appalachian State
• #3 Memphis vs. #6 NC State
• #2 IOWA vs. #7 Oakland

Changes:
Moved up from NIT to NCAA

• Colorado
• St. John's

Dropped from NCAA to NIT

• Butler
• New Mexico

Moved into NIT

• Maryland
• Ohio State

Dropped out of NIT

• LSU
• Rutgers
• Yale

First Four Out of NIT

• Georgia
• Loyola(Chi)
• Yale
• Washington

Big Ten

• #1 Purdue = held
• #4 Illinois = held
• #5 Wisconsin = held
• #7 Nebraska = moved up from #8
• #8 Northwestern = held
• #10 Michigan State = dropped from #7
• NIT#2 Iowa = held
• NIT#5 Minnesota = held
• NIT#6 Maryland = moved into NIT
• NIT#6 Ohio State = moved into NIT
• Rutgers = dropped out of NIT
• Indiana = n/a
• Michigan = n/a
• Penn State = n/a

[FearlessF]

I could live with that. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Honest question for @ELA and other close followers of MSU/Izzo:

Last night I watched a YouTube replay of Izzo's postgame presser from tOSU's recent upset of the Spartans.  Does he always sound like that?  I don't remember seeing this before, but I only rarely watch Izzo's postgame pressers so I don't have much basis of comparison.  

Don't get me wrong, I think he is a phenomenal coach and I have the utmost respect for what he has accomplished at MSU.  I've said repeatedly on here that what I most want for Ohio State is to hire "Our Izzo" and that is the most sincere compliment I could give to him.  

That said, when I listened to his comments and his answers to questions from the media he just sounded old, tired, and not very interested in this anymore.  Several times his answers included the phrase "these days" or similar referring to things as they are now and it just seemed like under the surface he was thinking back to his prime and viewing it as a completely different era.  

I hope this doesn't come off as overly critical and like I said, I have the utmost respect for the guy but watching that press conference I didn't feel like he was planning on coaching all that much longer so I thought I'd come here to ask your thoughts.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Big Ten

• #1 Purdue = held
• #4 Illinois = held
• #5 Wisconsin = held
• #7 Nebraska = moved up from #8
• #8 Northwestern = held
• #10 Michigan State = dropped from #7

Predicted results based on performance of those seeds in past NCAA Tournaments:


Explanation:

• #1 seeds have won 150 of their 152 first round games, 98.68%
• 128 of 152 #1 seeds have won a second round game to make the S16, 84.21%.  
• 101 of 152 #1 seeds have won a S16 game to make the E8, 66.45%.
• 61 of 152 #1 seeds have won an E8 game to make the F4, 40.13%.  
• Exactly one-fourth of #1 seeds, 38 of 152 have won a national semi-final and thus made it to the CG, 25%.  
• 24 of 152 #1 seeds have won the National Championship, 15.79%.  

[ELA]

Honest question for @ELA and other close followers of MSU/Izzo:

Last night I watched a YouTube replay of Izzo's postgame presser from tOSU's recent upset of the Spartans.  Does he always sound like that?  I don't remember seeing this before, but I only rarely watch Izzo's postgame pressers so I don't have much basis of comparison. 

Don't get me wrong, I think he is a phenomenal coach and I have the utmost respect for what he has accomplished at MSU.  I've said repeatedly on here that what I most want for Ohio State is to hire "Our Izzo" and that is the most sincere compliment I could give to him. 

That said, when I listened to his comments and his answers to questions from the media he just sounded old, tired, and not very interested in this anymore.  Several times his answers included the phrase "these days" or similar referring to things as they are now and it just seemed like under the surface he was thinking back to his prime and viewing it as a completely different era. 

I hope this doesn't come off as overly critical and like I said, I have the utmost respect for the guy but watching that press conference I didn't feel like he was planning on coaching all that much longer so I thought I'd come here to ask your thoughts. 

He's clearly frustrated about getting asked the same questions, and seeing the same things from his team.  But part of this is on him.  He's the one who decided not to get a 5 in the portal.  He's the one who continues to reward upperclassmen who don't deserve it.  He's the one who has whiffed on his last 2 PG recruits (Loyer and Hoggard).

Is some of this out of his control?  Sure.  His projected starting 5 couldn't even practice until December after injuring his foot in the preseason.  His backup PG got shot.  His best player is now at like 60% with a groin injury that needs surgery after the season.

Then you add in all the other stuff we talk about with how miserable coaching has to be now, particularly for a guy who built a HOF career for 25 years in a totally different atmosphere.  If he retired after the year, I wouldn't be shocked

[ELA]

Certainly a wording choice

[LetsGoPeay]

Anymore, the only pleasure I take from IU basketball is the ability to bet against them with confidence. 

Opponent moneyline + Kel'el Ware points over + Malik Reneau points over = Profit

[boilerbanger]

@medinabuckeye1 I have heard some people talk about the Big 12 manipulating their NET rankings with weak preseason schedules.  While some of this seems to make sense to me, you go a lot deeper into the numbers and was curious about your thoughts on the topic.

[medinabuckeye1]

@medinabuckeye1 I have heard some people talk about the Big 12 manipulating their NET rankings with weak preseason schedules.  While some of this seems to make sense to me, you go a lot deeper into the numbers and was curious about your thoughts on the topic.

That is mostly beyond me.  

My impression is that the NET is MUCH less subject to manipulation than the old RPI was.  Years ago @ELA pointed out that the way the RPI was set up could be manipulated.  I *THINK* part of the reason for switching to NET was to get around that.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Apparently it's this: https://thespun.com/college-hoops/acc-coach-accuses-big-12-of-manipulating-the-net-rankings

Says they're scheduling massively weak teams and running up the score to get their off/def efficiency numbers up, and then once they get into league play their numbers are all a little higher than they would be otherwise. 

However, I find it odd that this strategy (other than keeping starters in which the coach complains about) would do much, because it's supposed to account for opponent quality in the efficiency numbers... From the NCAA web site:

The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played. For example, a given efficiency value (net points per 100 possessions) against stronger opposition rates higher than the same efficiency against lesser opponents and having a certain efficiency on the road rates higher than the same efficiency at home.

I would think it would be a lot easier to schedule more road games against low-ish opponents turning what might be a Quad 3 win at home into a Quad 2 road win, or something like that. 

I'd want to see numbers to make sure I understand what's happening here. 

[ELA]

I think that it certainly overrates uncapped MOV.  I'm all for MOV counting, but Wake Forest's coach even said that he used to give his bench a chance to play in blowouts, and now he can't, because there is a difference between winning by 25 and winning by 12.  I think it should be capped at like 20, and that if you are up by 20 at any point in the final 5 minutes or so, it goes in as a 20 point win.

Where the NET is better than RPI is with the Quads.  They look at Quad 1 wins and Quad 4 losses.  So just piling up Quad 3 wins, instead of scheduling Quad 1 and Quad 4 games is less beneficial.  The RPI literally took the combined RPI of your opponents, and that was your SOS.  So you would have a better SOS going 2-0 #150 and #151, than playing #1 and #320, and going 1-1.

[medinabuckeye1]

I think that it certainly overrates uncapped MOV.  I'm all for MOV counting, but Wake Forest's coach even said that he used to give his bench a chance to play in blowouts, and now he can't, because there is a difference between winning by 25 and winning by 12.  I think it should be capped at like 20, and that if you are up by 20 at any point in the final 5 minutes or so, it goes in as a 20 point win.

I like this idea. I think I'd tweak it to a 20 point cap and:

• A 25 point lead at or after the U8 timeout or
• A 20 point lead at or after the U4 timeout 
• Either results in credit for a 20 point MoV.

Basically Zach Edey is in any game with a 20 point Purdue lead and less than four minutes to play, Painter must really hate the opposing coach. Not saying that Painter/Purdue has or would do this, just saying that the system should be set up so as not to infinitely credit any quality team for needlessly running up the score.