I’d have to do a bit of study, but OSU would go to the BTT a pretty soft 19-13.
If they win out, you’re looking at 3 Q1 wins, 3 Q2, one Q3 loss. Need a lot in the conference tournament to help that.
Fair point. Current:
Remaining games:
- vs UNL #41 Q2
- vs M #120 Q3
- @ RU #98 Q2
So if you assume winning out (which you more-or-less have to in order to get to an at-large bid):
- 3-6 Q1
- 3-5 Q2
- 8-1 Q3
- 5-0 Q4
- 19-12 overall, 9-11 in conference
As of current projections that would put them in a 4-way tie with Maryland, Penn State, and Iowa for 8th/9th/10th/11th in the league. H2H2H2H records:
- 3-2 Maryland (does not host tOSU, won in Iowa City)
- 3-3 Penn State (home wins, road losses)
- 2-2 Ohio State (does not host IA, does not visit College Park, home wins, road losses)
- 2-3 Iowa (does not visit Columbus, lost at home to Maryland)
Thus:
Maryland would get the #8 seed and Iowa would get the #11 seed. Penn State and Ohio State would move to the next tiebreaker where the Buckeyes would win based on their win over Purdue so:
- Ohio State gets the #9 seed
- Penn State gets the #10 seed
That is probably bad news for the Buckeyes because their match-ups would be:
- vs #8 Maryland on Thursday Q2
- vs #1 Purdue on Friday Q1
If they need two wins, that is rough*.
I think they would HAVE to beat Maryland. If that was all they accomplished, they'd finish:
- 3-7 Q1 additional loss to PU in BTT
- 4-5 Q2 additional win over UMD in BTT
- 8-1 Q3
- 5-0 Q4
- 20-12 overall, 9-11 in B1G, 10-12 in B1G games including Tournament.
They'd frankly be a lot better off to lose the tie and get the #11 seed.
*Having Purdue as your Friday opponent is good news/bad news/really good news:
- The good news is you have to play the reigning POTY and one of the best teams in the country so you aren't expected to win so the loss shouldn't hurt you.
- The bad news is you have to play the reigning POTY and one of the best teams in the country so you aren't likely to win.
- The really good news is that if you DO somehow win, is is a REALLY good win.
The "X factor" might just be whether or not the committee had any recency bias. In the old days they used to specifically list "last 10 games". They don't anymore, but I don't know that I'd completely rule out the committee considering it, perhaps only as a sort-of tiebreaker.
In the scenario of Ohio State winning their last three regular season games, then beating Maryland and losing to Purdue in the BTT, they would be 7-3 in their last 10 and it is an impressive 7-3:
- Home win over UMD, Q2
- Road loss to Wisconsin, Q1
- Home win over Purdue, Q1
- Road loss to Minnesota, Q2 (NOTE, this is RIGHT on the line between Q1 and Q2)
- Road win over Michigan State, Q1
- Home win over Nebraska, Q2
- Home win over Michigan, Q3
- Road win over Rutgers, Q2
- Neutral win over Maryland, Q2
- Neutral loss to Purdue, Q1
So that is: