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Topic: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

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boilerbanger

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1106 on: February 05, 2024, 03:00:06 PM »
@medinabuckeye1 I was told there would be no math!!!!

ELA

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1107 on: February 05, 2024, 03:13:57 PM »
Sandbagger!

LoL, seriously, it is fairly common for higher tier teams to end up with negative upsets and lower tier teams to end up with positive upsets simply because higher tier teams have more opportunities to get upset and lower tier teams have more opportunities to upset someone else.  Using the tiers with UW's remaining schedule, we predict:
  • W at M
  • W at RU
  • W vs tOSU
  • W at Iowa
  • W vs UMD
  • W at IU
  • W vs IL
  • W vs RU
  • L at PU
Yeah, I don't think the Badgers are going to go 8-1 against that slate either but I also wouldn't actually pick against them in any individual game other than at Purdue.  It is a statistical issue.  Even if we were able to determine definitively that Wisconsin has a 90% chance of winning each of the eight games they are projected to win, there is still the issue that:
  • 90% chance to beat Michigan
  • 81% chance to beat both Michigan and Rutgers
  • 73% chance to beat all of M, RU, and Ohio State
  • 66% chance to beat all of M, RU, tOSU, and Iowa
  • 59% chance to beat all of M, RU, tOSU, IA, and UMD
  • 53% chance to beat all of M, RU, tOSU, IA, UMD, and IU
  • 48% chance to beat all of M, RU, tOSU, IA, UMD, IU, and IL
  • 43%  chance to beat all of M, RU, tOSU, IA, UMD, IU, IL, and RU
So even though UW has a 90% chance to win each of the games individually and you'd be nuts to pick against them in any one of those games individually, you would probably get at least one wrong if you picked them in each of the eight games. 

That is where we are.  Is Wisconsin more likely than not to win each of their next eight games?  Yes, they are.  Are they more likely than not to win their next eight straight?  No, they are not. 


Torvik has 69%, 75%, 81%, 58%, 84%, 69%, 63%, 91%, 15%

That comes out to 6-3

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1108 on: February 05, 2024, 03:22:32 PM »
@medinabuckeye1 I was told there would be no math!!!!
You are a Purdue guy, engineer right? Math shouldn't be a problem!

boilerbanger

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1109 on: February 05, 2024, 09:32:46 PM »
You are a Purdue guy, engineer right? Math shouldn't be a problem!
LOL ... actually went to school at IU for accounting ... but was raised a Purdue fan, rooted for Purdue even while at IU.  A rare breed, at least my loyalty can never be questioned.  Boiler Up!

FearlessF

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1110 on: February 05, 2024, 10:12:55 PM »
weird 
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

MarqHusker

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1111 on: February 05, 2024, 11:27:08 PM »
Pat Dye playing at UGA coaching AU among other notable juxtaposition.  Not that novel.

bayareabadger

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1112 on: February 05, 2024, 11:55:34 PM »
Did get to watch this game (or the UNL game) but I've been reading.

What has happened to this kid?
I think he's just not good at certain things and is mired in a shooting slump to boot.

It's irritating because he's really good at a lot of stuff. But UW has always had guards who could take the ball at the end of the clock and make something, and he's just not quick/cagy/skilled enough to do it well.

The standard at that position is high, and he's struggling to meet it. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1113 on: February 06, 2024, 04:02:07 PM »
Does anyone know how TV gets determined for B1G  BB games?

I'm asking specifically because the Ohio State vs Michigan game scheduled for Sunday, March 3 at 4pm is, at least for now, listed as a CBS game. 

I'm sure that seemed like a great idea to someone at CBS closer to FB season but at this point that game is shaping such that the stakes will be that the loser is dead last in the B1G and the winner avoids that fate. 

If CBS has the option to swap for something else I'm assuming that they will. My question is, do they have that option or are they stuck with this game?

ELA

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1114 on: February 06, 2024, 04:04:27 PM »
I think they generally only keep the final weekend flexible

Not to mention, there are only 2 other Big Ten games that day, Indiana-Maryland, which is also already on CBS, and Rutgers-Nebraska, which I would still bet gets worse ratings than UM-OSU

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1115 on: February 06, 2024, 04:30:16 PM »
I think they generally only keep the final weekend flexible

Not to mention, there are only 2 other Big Ten games that day, Indiana-Maryland, which is also already on CBS, and Rutgers-Nebraska, which I would still bet gets worse ratings than UM-OSU
Ok, thanks. I was just surprised to see a game between the worst two teams in the league getting CBS on the penultimate weekend of the season.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1116 on: February 06, 2024, 05:29:55 PM »
I think they generally only keep the final weekend flexible
Speaking of final weekend scheduling flexibility:
A few pages back your proposed two six-team tournaments hosted by the #7 and #8 seeds running from Monday-Wednesday with the winners of those two becoming the #7 and #8 seeds in a Friday-Sunday eight-team tournament as a way to handle the new-and-expanded 18 team B1G. 

Within that proposal you had denoted that the regular season would have to end by Saturday.  I assume that was because we couldn't have teams playing a game on Sunday then needing to travel to a destination that might not be known until late Sunday for a game on Monday.  That all makes sense but it occurred to me that if any two teams that were playing on the final weekend were both locked into the top-6 they could play on Sunday since they wouldn't be playing again until Friday anyway. 

Example this year (using current projections):
Projected #1 Purdue and projected #2 Wisconsin are scheduled to play in West Lafayette the last weekend.  Based on our projections they will be pretty easily locked into top-6 slots so their game could be Sunday.  For this year that would probably be it since projected #3 Illinois is at projected #9/10 Iowa and projected #4 MSU is at projected #13 Indiana.  Projected #5 Nebraska and projected #6 Northwestern aren't playing each other. 

The major problem that might quash this idea is that we wouldn't know in advance how many Sunday games we could offer nor even if we could offer any at all.  The league might not be able to sell a Sunday game (or games) that might or might not happen.  

Also on the announced 15-team tournament:
I couldn't figure out why they went with 15 rather than 16.  I was thinking that if you were playing on Wednesday anyway, why not play four games on Wednesday and have 16 teams involved.  I *THINK* I figured out the problem:
The BTT is typically held in a building that serves as the home for an NBA team.  For example this year's tournament is at the Target Center which serves as the home arena for the Minnesota Timberwolves.  In the case of this year I don't think it would be a problem because their last home game before our tournament is on Monday, March 4 then they go on a six-game road swing  and don't return to the Target Center until Tuesday, March 19.  Our Tournament runs Wednesday, March 13 through Sunday, St. Patrick's Day, March 17. 

My thinking though is that in some cases the host arena might have an NBA game on Tuesday night.  If they do, they might not be able to get the building ready for BTT games until Wednesday evening.  In that case, my guess is that they are thinking they can have one three-game session on Wednesday night consisting of:
  • #10 vs #15
  • #11 vs #14
  • #12 vs #13
Followed by two two-game sessions on Thursday consisting of:
  • #5 vs #12/13
  • #6 vs #11/14
  • #7 vs #10/15
  • #8 vs #9
Ie, I think the reason to limit it to 15 teams is so that they don't need the building until Wednesday evening rather than early Wednesday afternoon. 


medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1117 on: February 07, 2024, 01:28:55 AM »
The updated projected final standings/BTT seeds are:
  • 17-3/28-3 Purdue
  • 16-4/24-7 Wisconsin
  • 15-5/24-7 Illinois
  • 14-6/22-9 Michigan State
  • 13-7/23-8 Nebraska
  • 12-8/21-10 Northwestern
  • 9-11/18-13 Minnesota (wins tie with UMD based on H2H, no game in College Park)
  • 9-11/17-14 Maryland
  • 8-12/14-17 Penn State
  • 7-13/15-16 Iowa (wins tie with RR based on H2H, no game in Piscataway)
  • 7-13/15-16 Rutgers
  • 6-14/16-15 Ohio State
  • 5-15/13-18 Indiana
  • 2-18/7-24 Michigan
Well, our projection system had a rough night. All three games came out opposite of what we expected.

IU>tOSU means that they trade projected records and seeds.

RU>UMD means that they both join PSU in a projected three-way tie with PSU for 8th/9th/10th. That drops Iowa into a Wednesday game as the projected 11 seed.

MN>MSU doesn't change Minnesota's projected seed but that and Maryland's loss give Minnesota some cushion as they are now projected to finish two games ahead of #8.

Michigan State drops into a projected tie with Nebraska for 4th/5th and the Spartans lose that tie because they lost in Lincoln and do not host the Cornhuskers this year. Thus MSU now projects to open BTT play on Thursday against the tOSU/IU winner while Nebraska is now projected to get a double bye and open BTT play on Friday against the MSU/tOSU/IU winner.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1118 on: February 07, 2024, 01:35:09 AM »
If OSU doesn't right the ship soon, they may join Michigan in tier 5.
They are terrible but they might not be THAT terrible. The difference is projected result in home games against Tier-3. Those are Maryland, Minnesota, Iowa, and Rutgers. 

They host Maryland on Saturday (4pm, FS1) and I fully expect them to lose but they already won home games against Rutgers and Minnesota and don't host Iowa this year.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1119 on: February 07, 2024, 07:44:59 AM »
Yep, rough night.

Which is why I can say with great confidence that UW will not win 8 more games.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

 

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