2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Planned changes to tiers:

_{Michigan down to a new Tier-5:}
They won in Iowa City but offset that with a home loss to Iowa. They also have home losses to Indiana, Minnesota, and now Rutgers.

Ohio State down to Tier-4:
I really thought that the catastrophe last year would be the worst of the Holtmann era but he is now on pace to outdo himself. This year's Ohio State team looks worse than last year and at this point they are one of the worst two teams in the league.

Not sure what to do with Penn State:
If you want to know why the Nittany Lions confuse me, just look at their last five games. They have three very good wins: Wisconsin was a good win because the Badgers are good and the other two are good wins because they were on the road in Piscataway and Bloomington. The other two games were very bad losses: Ohio State is a bad loss because Holtmann and Minnesota was a bad loss because it was at home.

Penn State now has one negative upset (home loss to Minnesota) and three positive upsets:

• Home win over UW
• Win in Piscataway
• Win in Bloomington

Sounds simple, we should just move them up, right? Well not so fast. All three of those would still be upsets even if we moved them up and their home loss to Northwestern would become an upset as well.


We could move them all the way up to Tier-2. That would eliminate the Wisconsin and Indiana upsets but do you really expect them to win upcoming home games against the Illini and Spartans? Also, assuming we move tOSU down, the road loss to the Buckeyes would become an upset.

Any agreement, disagreements, thoughts?

[grillrat]

Definitely OK with moving Michigan and OSU down.
If OSU doesn't right the ship soon, they may join Michigan in tier 5.

[boilerbanger]

@medinabuckeye1 I have no issues with your proposed changes

[boilerbanger]

@medinabuckeye1  after more thought here is what my tiers would look like with PSU trending up and IU & OSU trending down.

• • Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois
  • Michigan State
  • Northwestern, Nebraska
  • Maryland, Minnesota, Iowa, Rutgers
  • Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State
  • Michigan

[medinabuckeye1]

Thanks @boilerbanger (I was almost done with this post before I saw your second comment) and @grillrat .  

The updated tiers are:

• Purdue (+1), Wisconsin (+1/-2), Illinois (-1), Michigan State (-1)
• Nebraska, Northwestern
• Maryland (+2), Minnesota (+1/-1), Iowa (+1/-2), Rutgers (-1)
• Penn State (+3/-1), Ohio State, Indiana (+1/-1)
• Michigan (+1/-1)

The 11 upsets so far have been:

The updated projected final standings/BTT seeds are:

• 17-3/28-3 Purdue
• 16-4/24-7 Wisconsin
• 15-5/24-7 Illinois
• 14-6/22-9 Michigan State
• 13-7/23-8 Nebraska
• 12-8/21-10 Northwestern
• 9-11/18-13 Minnesota (wins tie with UMD based on H2H, no game in College Park)
• 9-11/17-14 Maryland
• 8-12/14-17 Penn State
• 7-13/15-16 Iowa (wins tie with RR based on H2H, no game in Piscataway)
• 7-13/15-16 Rutgers
• 6-14/16-15 Ohio State
• 5-15/13-18 Indiana
• 2-18/7-24 Michigan

Based on those projections, the match-ups for the B1G Tournament at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota would be:
Wednesday, March 13 (Peacock):

• #11 Rutgers vs #14 Michigan, 9pm
• #12 Ohio State vs #13 Indiana, 630

Thursday, March 14 (BTN):

• #5 Nebraska vs tOSU/IU, 230
• #6 Northwestern vs RU/M, 9pm
• #7 Minnesota vs #10 Iowa, 630
• #8 Maryland vs #9 Penn State, noon

Friday, March 15 (BTN):

• #1 Purdue vs UMD/PSU, noon
• #2 Wisconsin vs MN/IA, 630
• #3 Illinois vs NU/RU/M, 9pm
• #4 Michigan State vs UNL/tOSU/IU, 230

Saturday, March 16 (CBS):

• PU/UMD/PSU vs MSU/UNL/tOSU/IU, 1pm
• UW/MN/IA vs IL/NU/RU/M, 330

Sunday, St. Patrick's Day, March 17 (CBS):

• PU/UMD/PSU/MSU/UNL/tOSU/IU vs UW/MN/IA/IL/NU/RU/M, 330

To answer @Brutus Buckeye 's standing question, not happening unless:

• Ohio State beats Indiana on Wednesday
• Michigan beats Rutgers on Wednesday
• Ohio State beats Nebraska on Thursday
• Michigan beats Northwestern on Thursday
• Ohio State beats Michigan State on Friday
• Michigan beats Illinois on Friday
• Ohio State beats PU/UMD/PSU on Saturday
• Michigan beats UW/MN/IA on Saturday

[medinabuckeye1]

@medinabuckeye1  after more thought here is what my tiers would look like with PSU trending up and IU & OSU trending down.

• • • Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois
    • Michigan State
    • Northwestern, Nebraska
    • Maryland, Minnesota, Iowa, Rutgers
    • Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State
    • Michigan

This might make a lot of sense.  The only difference between the current tiers and what you proposed here is that you moved MSU down from Tier-1 into a new Tier-2 between the existing Tier-1 and Tier-2.  I do get the feeling that Michigan State isn't quite as good as UW/PU/IL but they are definitively better than NU/UNL.  For now they are in the tier with the top teams partially on the theory that they have Izzo so they'll be better the closer we get to March.  

I already posted the update for today so lets hold this thought for Friday when I update again.  

This week's (Tues-Thurs) games:

• Rutgers at Maryland Tuesday 630, BTN:  We project the Terps to win and I think they will, comfortably.  
• Indiana at Ohio State Tuesday 7pm, Peacock:  We project the Buckeyes to win but the way they have been playing lately I think the Hoosiers will get the win.  
• Michigan State at Minnesota Tuesday 9pm, Peacock:  We project the Spartans to get a road win and I think they will but this could easily go either way.  
• Wisconsin at Michigan Wednesday 7pm, BTN:  This is probably a good rebound game for Wisconsin as there aren't any easier road games.  
• Nebraska at Northwestern Wednesday 9pm, BTN:  We project a Northwestern win.  They should get the win at home since Nebraska is more-or-less tier-1 at home and tier-5 on the road.  
• Iowa at Penn State Thursday 7pm, BTN:  We project a home win by the Nittany Lions.  

[medinabuckeye1]

My team:
Can Holtmann/the Buckeyes recover?  

I've been saying for three years now that Holtmann wasn't the right answer at HC but despite that I have a hard time completely writing off the Buckeyes because I don't *THINK* that they have a talent deficiency.  As I've said in this thread before, they have Tier-1 talent and Tier-5 coaching.  

That makes it hard for me to write them off completely because if the talent exists then there is at least a chance that the team could start playing up to their talent and if they do, they will suddenly be one of the top teams in the league.  

All of that said, they might be out of time even for that.  

One month ago Ohio State was 12-2/2-1, on the cusp of the top-25, and (IIRC) a #5 seed in the projected brackets.  Since then they've lost seven of eight, they aren't even close to the top-25, and they aren't even in the bubble discussion.  

I *THINK* they need ~21 wins to get serious bubble consideration.  They are currently 13-9 so if they won out they'd finish 22-9.  That would likely do it but it also assumes that they are going to win in Madison, beat Purdue, win in East Lansing, and also win all their other games.  

They've lost four straight and seven of eight.  If they lose tomorrow at home to IU:

• vs IU is 5 straight, 8 of 9
• vs UMD is 6 straight, 9 of 10
• @ UW is 7 straight, 10 of 11
• vs PU is 8 straight, 11 of 12
• @ MN is 9 straight, 12 of 13
• @ MSU is 10 straight, 13 of 14

Then they host a Nebraska team that is VERY good at home but doesn't travel well.  They could actually win their last three (vs UNL, vs M, @ RU) but if they lose 10 straight and 13 of 14 prior to that it will obviously be far too little and far too late.  

Is there any chance that they pull out of this freefall?  

[boilerbanger]

@medinabuckeye1 I bet if you ask an IU fan about the OSU game this week, the would say they lose, it is a battle of which fan base is more down on their team.  IU looked completely awful in the 2nd half of PSU ... people are call for Woodson's head.  IU's guard play is awful though they do have inside talent, if OSU can hit shots they should be able to win this game.

[847badgerfan]

They’d be more fun if their point guard would stop pissing me off.

That was an interesting game. Purdue is a better squad. UW needed to win more 50-50 plays or Storr needed to hit more tough shots. Neither happened, such is life.

Did get to watch this game (or the UNL game) but I've been reading.

What has happened to this kid?

[grillrat]

@medinabuckeye1  after more thought here is what my tiers would look like with PSU trending up and IU & OSU trending down.

• • • Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois
    • Michigan State
    • Northwestern, Nebraska
    • Maryland, Minnesota, Iowa, Rutgers
    • Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State
    • Michigan

I'm kinda in the same boat.  I don't think that MSU is as good as Wisc / Ill / Pur, but I don't think I can justify moving them down yet.
The problem with putting them into their own tier is that Purdue then has a -2 for the NW / NE games.

[grillrat]

Did get to watch this game (or the UNL game) but I've been reading.

What has happened to this kid?

Hepburn?  Bleached his hair.  Some of it sunk into his brain.

[medinabuckeye1]

I'm kinda in the same boat.  I don't think that MSU is as good as Wisc / Ill / Pur, but I don't think I can justify moving them down yet.
The problem with putting them into their own tier is that Purdue then has a -2 for the NW / NE games.

Good point.  I hadn't looked that deeply into this yet but we can't put a tier in between the existing Tier-1 and Tier-2 because then NU/UNL would be expected to lose home games to UW/IL/PU and they haven't.  

I think we just have to leave MSU in Tier-1 and accept that there is unavoidably some variation within the tiers.  I think we would all agree that Purdue is the best team in Tier-1 but they aren't good enough to justify their own tier above the others.  Similarly, MSU appears to be the worst team in Tier-1 but they aren't bad enough to justify moving them down.  

[847badgerfan]

Thanks @boilerbanger (I was almost done with this post before I saw your second comment) and @grillrat . 

The updated tiers are:

• Purdue (+1), Wisconsin (+1/-2), Illinois (-1), Michigan State (-1)
• Nebraska, Northwestern
• Maryland (+2), Minnesota (+1/-1), Iowa (+1/-2), Rutgers (-1)
• Penn State (+3/-1), Ohio State, Indiana (+1/-1)
• Michigan (+1/-1)

The 11 upsets so far have been:

The updated projected final standings/BTT seeds are:

• 17-3/28-3 Purdue
• 16-4/24-7 Wisconsin
• 15-5/24-7 Illinois
• 14-6/22-9 Michigan State
• 13-7/23-8 Nebraska
• 12-8/21-10 Northwestern
• 9-11/18-13 Minnesota (wins tie with UMD based on H2H, no game in College Park)
• 9-11/17-14 Maryland
• 8-12/14-17 Penn State
• 7-13/15-16 Iowa (wins tie with RR based on H2H, no game in Piscataway)
• 7-13/15-16 Rutgers
• 6-14/16-15 Ohio State
• 5-15/13-18 Indiana
• 2-18/7-24 Michigan

Based on those projections, the match-ups for the B1G Tournament at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota would be:
Wednesday, March 13 (Peacock):

• #11 Rutgers vs #14 Michigan, 9pm
• #12 Ohio State vs #13 Indiana, 630

Thursday, March 14 (BTN):

• #5 Nebraska vs tOSU/IU, 230
• #6 Northwestern vs RU/M, 9pm
• #7 Minnesota vs #10 Iowa, 630
• #8 Maryland vs #9 Penn State, noon

Friday, March 15 (BTN):

• #1 Purdue vs UMD/PSU, noon
• #2 Wisconsin vs MN/IA, 630
• #3 Illinois vs NU/RU/M, 9pm
• #4 Michigan State vs UNL/tOSU/IU, 230

Saturday, March 16 (CBS):

• PU/UMD/PSU vs MSU/UNL/tOSU/IU, 1pm
• UW/MN/IA vs IL/NU/RU/M, 330

Sunday, St. Patrick's Day, March 17 (CBS):

• PU/UMD/PSU/MSU/UNL/tOSU/IU vs UW/MN/IA/IL/NU/RU/M, 330

To answer @Brutus Buckeye 's standing question, not happening unless:

• Ohio State beats Indiana on Wednesday
• Michigan beats Rutgers on Wednesday
• Ohio State beats Nebraska on Thursday
• Michigan beats Northwestern on Thursday
• Ohio State beats Michigan State on Friday
• Michigan beats Illinois on Friday
• Ohio State beats PU/UMD/PSU on Saturday
• Michigan beats UW/MN/IA on Saturday

I just can't see UW at 16-4. They've already lost 3. But I have no idea what else to do with them. Can't move them down.



1 loss from that? I don't see it.

[medinabuckeye1]

I just can't see UW at 16-4. They've already lost 3. But I have no idea what else to do with them. Can't move them down.

1 loss from that? I don't see it.

Sandbagger!

LoL, seriously, it is fairly common for higher tier teams to end up with negative upsets and lower tier teams to end up with positive upsets simply because higher tier teams have more opportunities to get upset and lower tier teams have more opportunities to upset someone else.  Using the tiers with UW's remaining schedule, we predict:

• W at M
• W at RU
• W vs tOSU
• W at Iowa
• W vs UMD
• W at IU
• W vs IL
• W vs RU
• L at PU

Yeah, I don't think the Badgers are going to go 8-1 against that slate either but I also wouldn't actually pick against them in any individual game other than at Purdue.  It is a statistical issue.  Even if we were able to determine definitively that Wisconsin has a 90% chance of winning each of the eight games they are projected to win, there is still the issue that:

• 90% chance to beat Michigan
• 81% chance to beat both Michigan and Rutgers
• 73% chance to beat all of M, RU, and Ohio State
• 66% chance to beat all of M, RU, tOSU, and Iowa
• 59% chance to beat all of M, RU, tOSU, IA, and UMD
• 53% chance to beat all of M, RU, tOSU, IA, UMD, and IU
• 48% chance to beat all of M, RU, tOSU, IA, UMD, IU, and IL
• 43%  chance to beat all of M, RU, tOSU, IA, UMD, IU, IL, and RU

So even though UW has a 90% chance to win each of the games individually and you'd be nuts to pick against them in any one of those games individually, you would probably get at least one wrong if you picked them in each of the eight games.  

That is where we are.  Is Wisconsin more likely than not to win each of their next eight games?  Yes, they are.  Are they more likely than not to win their next eight straight?  No, they are not.