2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[FearlessF]

good game

[grillrat]

...and yet they still lost.  MSU is good ,but at the end of the day, MSU is barely over .500 right now.  They need wins badly.  The tournament streak is in significant jeopardy.

[medinabuckeye1]

...and yet they still lost.  MSU is good ,but at the end of the day, MSU is barely over .500 right now.  They need wins badly.  The tournament streak is in significant jeopardy.

Their schedule to open B1G play has been brutal:

• Vs Tier-1 UW, loss upset
• At Tier-3 UNL, loss as expected 
• Vs Tier-4 PSU, blowout win as expected 
• At Tier-2 NU, loss as expected 
• At Tier-1 Illinois, loss as expected 

[Brutus Buckeye]

It is indeed difficult to imagine MSU finishing strong after a slow start. 

That never happens. 

[ELA]

...and yet they still lost.  MSU is good ,but at the end of the day, MSU is barely over .500 right now.  They need wins badly.  The tournament streak is in significant jeopardy.

I wouldn't say significant.  They are still #17 in KenPom, ahead of Kansas, and #26 in the NET

Once the schedule lightens up they'll have to win, because while they have essentially performed to expectation, they haven't stolen a win to balance a bad loss

[medinabuckeye1]

I need thoughts from you guys on MSU before I do the update to the projections.  All three of you ( @grillrat , @boilerbanger , and @ELA ) had MSU moving down a tier.  

I don't think that is necessary anymore because moving NU up a tier eliminated that upset so now MSU is at just -1 with only the home loss to UW as an upset.  Also, that one would still be an upset even if we move them down.  

I think we should keep MSU in the top tier along with UW, IL, and PU but like I've said before, I don't want this to be "Medina's projections", I want it to be a group effort so I'm asking for input before I finalize this update.  

That said, here is my case for keeping MSU in the top tier:

• They looked like a top tier team last night.  Yes, as @grillrat said, they did still lose, but they played a very tight game on the road with top-tier Illinois.  To me that didn't look like a game where Illinois was better AND at home it simply looked like a game between two top tier teams where the home team won.  
• It really doesn't matter much.  The difference between tier-1 and tier-2 is the projected result in road games against tier-3 teams.  Those teams are currently MN, tOSU, and RU but the Spartans do not visit Columbus nor Piscataway this year so it is only a one-game difference (the game in Minneapolis).  
• Coaching matters.  I call this the Holtmann/Izzo rule.  If a Holtmann team looks like a Tier-2 team in Nov/Dec I knock them down to Tier-3 because Holtmann.  If an Izzo team looks like a Tier-2 team in Nov/Dec, I push them up to Tier-1 because Izzo.  That usually works out about right.  

Thoughts?

[medinabuckeye1]

I wouldn't say significant.  They are still #17 in KenPom, ahead of Kansas, and #26 in the NET

Once the schedule lightens up they'll have to win, because while they have essentially performed to expectation, they haven't stolen a win to balance a bad loss

I agree and this is why I pointed out MSU's schedule.

MSU is now 1-4 while tOSU is 2-3 so at first glance it looks like tOSU is in a better place but when you look deeper, MSU's situation is MUCH better and not just because they have the best coach in the league and tOSU has the worst coach.

Both teams lost at home to Wisconsin. MSU by 13 back in December, tOSU by 11 a couple days ago. Here are the rest of their league games sorted by NET ranking:

• MSU lost at #11 IL
• MSU lost at #42 UNL
• MSU lost at #69 NU
• tOSU won vs #86 MN
• tOSU won vs #91 RU
• tOSU lost at #101 IU
• MSU won vs #126 PSU
• tOSU lost at #126 PSU

Being 1-4 obviously isn't ideal but MSU has played almost the toughest possible opening slate so things will get MUCH easier and it isn't crazy to think that MSU's record will improve.

Ohio State has a marginally better record but against pretty much the opposite schedule so things will get MUCH tougher and it isn't crazy to think that tOSU's record will deteriorate.

The above is solely based on SoS and doesn't even account for the Holtmann/Izzo worst/best coach in the league impact.

[medinabuckeye1]

Pending any disagreement on tiers, here is what I have:

• Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State
• Northwestern, Nebraska, Iowa
• Minnesota, Ohio State, Rutgers
• Indiana, Penn State, Maryland, Michigan

Based on those, there have only been four upsets:

The projected final standings/seeds for the BTT are:

• 17-3/25-6 Wisconsin
• 15-5/26-5 Purdue, wins tie over IL based on record against UW, IL does not host the Badgers
• 15-5/24-7 Illinois
• 14-6/22-9 Michigan State
• 13-7/22-9 Northwestern, wins tie over IA and UNL based on H2H2H of 2-1, no game in Iowa City
• 13-7/21-10 Iowa, second in tie with NU and UNL based on H2H2H of 1-1, no game in Lincoln and does not host the Cats
• 13-7/23-8 Nebraska, last in tie with NU and IA based on H2H2H of 1-2, does not host Iowa
• 9-11/18-13 Minnesota
• 7-13/15/16 Rutgers, wins tie with tOSU based on record against the 13-7 teams
• 7-13/17-14 Ohio State
• 5-15/11-20 Penn State, wins tie with IU based on record against Michigan, no game in Ann Arbor
• 5-15/13-18 Indiana
• 4-16/12-19 Maryland
• 3-17/8-23 Michigan

Based on that, the match-ups for the B1G Tournament at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota would be:
Wednesday, March 13 (Peacock):

• #11 Penn State vs #14 Michigan, 9pm
• #12 Indiana vs #13 Maryland, 630

Thursday, March 14 (BTN):

• #5 Northwestern vs IU/UMD, 230pm
• #6 Iowa vs PSU/M, 9pm
• #7 Nebraska vs #10 Ohio State, 630pm
• #8 Minnesota vs #9 Rutgers, noon

Friday, March 15 (BTN):

• #1 Wisconsin vs MN/RU, noon
• #2 Purdue vs UNL/tOSU, 630pm
• #3 Illinois vs IA/PSU/M, 9pm
• #4 Michigan State vs NU/IU/UMD, 230pm

Saturday, March 16 (CBS):

• UW/MN/RU vs MSU/NU/IU/UMD, 1pm
• PU/UNL/tOSU vs IL/IA/PSU/M, 330pm

Sunday, St. Patrick's Day, March 17 (CBS):

• UW/MN/RU/MSU/NU/IU/UMD vs PU/UNL/tOSU/IL/IA/PSU/M, 330pm

[FearlessF]

[grillrat]

I need thoughts from you guys on MSU before I do the update to the projections.  All three of you ( @grillrat , @boilerbanger , and @ELA ) had MSU moving down a tier. 

I don't think that is necessary anymore because moving NU up a tier eliminated that upset so now MSU is at just -1 with only the home loss to UW as an upset.  Also, that one would still be an upset even if we move them down. 

I think we should keep MSU in the top tier along with UW, IL, and PU but like I've said before, I don't want this to be "Medina's projections", I want it to be a group effort so I'm asking for input before I finalize this update. 

That said, here is my case for keeping MSU in the top tier:

• They looked like a top tier team last night.  Yes, as @grillrat said, they did still lose, but they played a very tight game on the road with top-tier Illinois.  To me that didn't look like a game where Illinois was better AND at home it simply looked like a game between two top tier teams where the home team won. 
• It really doesn't matter much.  The difference between tier-1 and tier-2 is the projected result in road games against tier-3 teams.  Those teams are currently MN, tOSU, and RU but the Spartans do not visit Columbus nor Piscataway this year so it is only a one-game difference (the game in Minneapolis). 
• Coaching matters.  I call this the Holtmann/Izzo rule.  If a Holtmann team looks like a Tier-2 team in Nov/Dec I knock them down to Tier-3 because Holtmann.  If an Izzo team looks like a Tier-2 team in Nov/Dec, I push them up to Tier-1 because Izzo.  That usually works out about right. 

Thoughts?

I don't know, I don't think the schedule really gets that much easier for them.  Of the 15 games they have left, they've got:

@Maryland (FYI, remember I have Maryland in the tier 3 group)
@Wisconsin
@Minnesota
@Michigan
@Purdue
@IU (FYI, remember I have IU in the tier 3 group also)
NW
Illinois

It's not a stretch to believe that they could lose most, if not all, of those games (at least, based off of my tiers where MSU is in the tier 2).  That leaves them with an 8-12 Big Ten record and 16-15 overall going into the BTT (and that is assuming they have no other "upset" games like losing @home to Iowa or OSU, etc.).  Even if they pull off wins @maryland, @Mich, and NW (Home), yes that gets you up to 11-9 (19-12) but that probably only gives them a grand total of one quad 1 win (Baylor). That just doesn't feel like a tournament worthy resume.

As I said, they seem pretty good, but at the end of the day, they need wins badly.

[boilerbanger]

@medinabuckeye1  I am fine leaving MSU in the top tier, however I would move Iowa down to Tier 3, I would expect all Tier 1 teams to be favored in a game @ Iowa

[FearlessF]

Huskers in Iowa City tonight at 8:30 on BTN!

[ELA]

I don't know, I don't think the schedule really gets that much easier for them.  Of the 15 games they have left, they've got:

@Maryland (FYI, remember I have Maryland in the tier 3 group)
@Wisconsin
@Minnesota
@Michigan
@Purdue
@IU (FYI, remember I have IU in the tier 3 group also)
NW
Illinois

It's not a stretch to believe that they could lose most, if not all, of those games (at least, based off of my tiers where MSU is in the tier 2).  That leaves them with an 8-12 Big Ten record and 16-15 overall going into the BTT (and that is assuming they have no other "upset" games like losing @home to Iowa or OSU, etc.).  Even if they pull off wins @maryland, @Mich, and NW (Home), yes that gets you up to 11-9 (19-12) but that probably only gives them a grand total of one quad 1 win (Baylor). That just doesn't feel like a tournament worthy resume.

As I said, they seem pretty good, but at the end of the day, they need wins badly.

Well, yes, if they lose to a bunch of bad teams going forward they won't get in.

[boilerbanger]

Huskers in Iowa City tonight at 8:30 on BTN!

I think the Hawkeyes win tonight, but I will be interested to see.