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Topic: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation

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ELA

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2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« on: August 02, 2022, 11:50:29 AM »
Sam as last year, instead of doing my own predictions, using FPI and SP+ to simulate the season, using HFA, along with momentum and travel considerations.

Phil Steele's Preseason AP Poll Prediction only goes up to #10 this year, so I'll use our old friends at CFN's


  • Alabama
  • OHIO STATE
  • Georgia
  • Clemson
  • Notre Dame
  • MICHIGAN
  • Texas A&M
  • USC
  • MICHIGAN STATE
  • Oklahoma State
  • Oklahoma
  • Ole Miss
  • NC State
  • Oregon
  • Utah
  • Arkansas
  • Houston
  • IOWA
  • Baylor
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • BYU
  • Kentucky
  • Florida
  • PENN STATE
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bayareabadger

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2022, 12:36:28 PM »
To be clear, this means a 51 percent favorite wins, correct?
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Abba

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2022, 12:48:53 PM »
I'm hopeful that it's more like:

Ohio State has an 83% chance to win against Notre Dame.  Let's generate a random number between 1 and 100 and if it's 1-83, then Ohio State wins, but if it's 84-100, then Notre Dame wins.
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ELA

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2022, 12:53:48 PM »
WEEK ZERO
Saturday, August 27

  • Florida Atlantic d. Charlotte
  • Florida State d. Duquesne
  • Hawaii d. Vanderbilt
  • ILLINOIS d. Wyoming
  • NEBRASKA d. NORTHWESTERN
  • NM State d. Nevada
  • North Carolina d. Florida A&M
  • UNLV d. Idaho State
  • Utah State d. Connecticut
  • UTEP d. North Texas
  • Western Kentucky d. Austin Peay
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ELA

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2022, 12:54:19 PM »
Quote from: Abba on August 02, 2022, 12:48:53 PM
I'm hopeful that it's more like:

Ohio State has an 83% chance to win against Notre Dame.  Let's generate a random number between 1 and 100 and if it's 1-83, then Ohio State wins, but if it's 84-100, then Notre Dame wins.
Correct
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Abba

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2022, 12:58:41 PM »
An 0-1 start isn't great for Vanderbilt's plans to be the best team in college football.  But it's only week 0.
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ELA

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2022, 02:32:50 PM »
WEEK ONE
Thursday, September 1

  • #10 Oklahoma State d. Central Michigan
  • #20 Tennessee d. Ball State
  • PURDUE d. #25 PENN STATE



  • Akron d. St. Francis(PA)
  • Arizona State d. Northern Arizona
  • Central Florida d. SC State
  • FIU d. Bryant
  • Fresno State d. Cal Poly
  • MINNESOTA d. NM State
  • Missouri d. Louisiana Tech
  • Northern Illinois d. Eastern Illinois
  • Pittsburgh d. West Virginia
  • San Jose State d. Portland State
  • Toledo d. Long Island
  • UAB d. Alabama A&M
  • Wake Forest d. VMI


Friday, September 2

  • #9 MICHIGAN STATE d. Western Michigan



  • Charlotte d. William & Mary
  • Duke d. Temple
  • Eastern Michigan d. Eastern Kentucky
  • ILLINOIS d. INDIANA
  • Kansas d. Tennessee Tech
  • Old Dominion d. Virginia Tech
  • TCU d. Colorado


Saturday, September 3
ESPN College Gameday, live from Columbus, OH
#2 OHIO STATE d. #5 Notre Dame


  • #1 Alabama d. Utah State
  • #3 Georgia d. #14 Oregon
  • #6 MICHIGAN d. Colorado State
  • #7 Texas A&M d. Sam Houston State
  • #8 USC d. Rice
  • #11 Oklahoma d. UTEP
  • #12 Ole Miss d. Troy
  • #13 NC State d. East Carolina
  • #15 Utah d. #24 Florida
  • Cincinnati d. #16 Arkansas
  • #17 Houston d. UTSA
  • #18 IOWA d. South Dakota State
  • #19 Baylor d. Albany
  • #21 Texas d. UL Monroe
  • #22 BYU d. South Florida
  • #23 Kentucky d. Miami(Ohio)



  • Air Force d. Northern Iowa
  • Arkansas State d. Grambling
  • Army d. Coastal Carolina
  • Auburn d. Mercer
  • California d. UC Davis
  • Cincinnati d. Arkansas
  • Connecticut d. Central Connecticut
  • Georgia Southern d. Morgan State
  • Georgia State d. South Carolina
  • Iowa State d. SE Missouri State
  • Kansas State d. South Dakota
  • Louisiana d. SE Louisiana
  • Marshall d. Norfolk State
  • MARYLAND d. Buffalo
  • Miami d. Bethune-Cookman
  • Middle Tennessee d. James Madison
  • Mississippi State d. Memphis
  • Navy d. Delaware
  • NEBRASKA d. North Dakota
  • Nevada d. Texas State
  • New Mexico d. Maine
  • North Carolina d. Appalachian State
  • Ohio d. Florida Atlantic
  • Oregon State d. Boise State
  • RUTGERS d. Boston College
  • San Diego State d. Arizona
  • SMU d. North Texas
  • South Alabama d. Nicholls
  • Southern Miss d. Liberty
  • Stanford d. Colgate
  • Syracuse d. Louisville
  • Texas Tech d. Murray State
  • Tulane d. Massachusetts
  • Tulsa d. Wyoming
  • UCLA d. Bowling Green
  • Vanderbilt d. Elon
  • Virginia d. Richmond
  • Washington d. Kent State
  • Washington State d. Idaho
  • Western Kentucky d. Hawaii
  • WISCONSIN d. Illinois State


Sunday, September 4

  • LSU d. Florida State


Monday, September 5

  • #4 Clemson d. Georgia Tech

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ELA

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2022, 03:44:01 PM »
Week 1 standings

ACC
ATLANTIC

  • Clemson (1-0) 1-0
  • Syracuse (1-0) 1-0
  • NC State (0-0) 1-0
  • Wake Forest (0-0) 1-0
  • Florida State (0-0) 1-1
  • Boston College (0-0) 0-1
  • Louisville (0-1) 0-1

COASTAL

  • North Carolina (0-0) 2-0
  • Duke (0-0) 1-0
  • Miami (0-0) 1-0
  • Pittsburgh (0-0) 1-0
  • Virginia (0-0) 1-0
  • Virginia Tech (0-0) 0-1
  • Georgia Tech (0-1) 0-1


BIG XII

  • Baylor (0-0) 1-0
  • Iowa State (0-0) 1-0
  • Kansas (0-0) 1-0
  • Kansas State (0-0) 1-0
  • Oklahoma (0-0) 1-0
  • Oklahoma State (0-0) 1-0
  • TCU (0-0) 1-0
  • Texas (0-0) 1-0
  • Texas Tech (0-0) 1-0
  • West Virginia (0-0) 0-1


BIG TEN
EAST

  • Maryland (0-0) 1-0
  • Michigan (0-0) 1-0
  • Michigan State (0-0) 1-0
  • Ohio State (0-0) 1-0
  • Rutgers (0-0) 1-0
  • Indiana (0-1) 0-1
  • Penn State (0-1) 0-1

WEST

  • Illinois (1-0) 2-0
  • Nebraska (1-0) 2-0
  • Purdue (1-0) 1-0
  • Iowa (0-0) 1-0
  • Minnesota (0-0) 1-0
  • Wisconsin (0-0) 1-0
  • Northwestern (0-1) 0-1


PAC 12
NORTH

  • California (0-0) 1-0
  • Oregon State (0-0) 1-0
  • Stanford (0-0) 1-0
  • Washington (0-0) 1-0
  • Washington State (0-0) 1-0
  • Oregon (0-0) 0-1

SOUTH

  • Arizona State (0-0) 1-0
  • UCLA (0-0) 1-0
  • USC (0-0) 1-0
  • Utah (0-0) 1-0
  • Arizona (0-0) 0-1
  • Colorado (0-0) 0-1


SEC
EAST

  • Georgia (0-0) 1-0
  • Kentucky (0-0) 1-0
  • Missouri (0-0) 1-0
  • Tennessee (0-0) 1-0
  • Vanderbilt (0-0) 1-1
  • Florida (0-0) 0-1
  • South Carolina (0-0) 0-1

WEST

  • Alabama (0-0) 1-0
  • Auburn (0-0) 1-0
  • LSU (0-0) 1-0
  • Mississippi State (0-0) 1-0
  • Ole Miss (0-0) 1-0
  • Texas A&M (0-0) 1-0
  • Arkansas (0-0) 0-1


AMERICAN

  • Central Florida (0-0) 1-0
  • Cincinnati (0-0) 1-0
  • Houston (0-0) 1-0
  • Navy (0-0) 1-0
  • SMU (0-0) 1-0
  • Tulane (0-0) 1-0
  • Tulsa (0-0) 1-0
  • East Carolina (0-0) 0-1
  • Memphis (0-0) 0-1
  • South Florida (0-0) 0-1
  • Temple (0-0) 0-1


CONFERENCE USA

  • Florida Atlantic (1-0) 1-1
  • UTEP (1-0) 1-1
  • Western Kentucky (0-0) 2-0
  • FIU (0-0) 1-0
  • Middle Tennessee (0-0) 1-0
  • UAB (0-0) 1-0
  • Louisiana Tech (0-0) 0-1
  • Rice (0-0) 0-1
  • UTSA (0-0) 0-1
  • Charlotte (0-1) 1-1
  • North Texas (0-1) 0-2


MAC
EAST

  • Akron (0-0) 1-0
  • Ohio (0-0) 1-0
  • Bowling Green (0-0) 0-1
  • Buffalo (0-0) 0-1
  • Kent State (0-0) 0-1
  • Miami(Ohio) (0-0) 0-1

WEST

  • Eastern Michigan (0-0) 1-0
  • Northern Illinois (0-0) 1-0
  • Toledo (0-0) 1-0
  • Ball State (0-0) 0-1
  • Central Michigan (0-0) 0-1
  • Western Michigan (0-0) 0-1


MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN

  • Air Force (0-0) 1-0
  • New Mexico (0-0) 1-0
  • Utah State (0-0) 1-1
  • Boise State (0-0) 0-1
  • Colorado State (0-0) 0-1
  • Wyoming (0-0) 0-2

WEST

  • Fresno State (0-0) 1-0
  • San Diego State (0-0) 1-0
  • San Jose State (0-0) 1-0
  • UNLV (0-0) 1-0
  • Hawaii (0-0) 1-1
  • Nevada (0-0) 1-1


SUN BELT
EAST

  • Georgia Southern (0-0) 1-0
  • Georgia State (0-0) 1-0
  • Marshall (0-0) 1-0
  • Old Dominion (0-0) 1-0
  • Appalachian State (0-0) 0-1
  • Coastal Carolina (0-0) 0-1
  • James Madison (0-0) 0-1

WEST

  • Arkansas State (0-0) 1-0
  • Louisiana (0-0) 1-0
  • South Alabama (0-0) 1-0
  • Southern Miss (0-0) 1-0
  • Texas State (0-0) 0-1
  • Troy (0-0) 0-1
  • UL Monroe (0-0) 0-1


INDEPENDENTS

  • Army (1-0)
  • BYU (1-0)
  • Connecticut (1-1)
  • NM State (1-1)
  • Liberty (0-1)
  • Massachusetts (0-1)
  • Notre Dame (0-1)
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ELA

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2022, 03:59:41 PM »
September 6 Poll

  • Alabama (1-0) 1
  • OHIO STATE (1-0) 2
  • Georgia (1-0) 3
  • Clemson (1-0) 4
  • MICHIGAN (1-0) 6
  • Texas A&M (1-0) 7
  • USC (1-0) 8
  • Notre Dame (0-1) 5
  • MICHIGAN STATE (1-0) 9
  • Oklahoma State (1-0) 10
  • Oklahoma (1-0) 11
  • Utah (1-0) 15
  • Ole Miss (1-0) 12
  • NC State (1-0) 13
  • IOWA (1-0) 18
  • Houston (1-0) 17
  • Baylor (1-0) 19
  • Tennessee (1-0) 20
  • Texas (1-0) 21
  • Cincinnati (1-0) -
  • Oregon (0-1) 14
  • PURDUE (1-0) -
  • Arkansas (0-1) 16
  • Kentucky (1-0) 23
  • BYU (1-0) 22
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Abba

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2022, 04:10:40 PM »
I think Indiana won the Big Ten last year in this simulation.  Not off to such a hot start this time.
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ELA

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2022, 05:12:03 PM »
Quote from: Abba on August 02, 2022, 04:10:40 PM
I think Indiana won the Big Ten last year in this simulation.  Not off to such a hot start this time.
I think they lost to Clemson in the CFP semi
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2022, 05:29:21 PM »
Quote from: ELA on August 02, 2022, 11:50:29 AM
Sam as last year, instead of doing my own predictions, using FPI and SP+ to simulate the season, using HFA, along with momentum and travel considerations.

Phil Steele's Preseason AP Poll Prediction only goes up to #10 this year, so I'll use our old friends at CFN's


  • Alabama
  • OHIO STATE
  • Georgia
  • Clemson
  • Notre Dame
  • MICHIGAN
  • Texas A&M
  • USC
  • MICHIGAN STATE
  • Oklahoma State
  • Oklahoma
  • Ole Miss
  • NC State
  • Oregon
  • Utah
  • Arkansas
  • Houston
  • IOWA
  • Baylor
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • BYU
  • Kentucky
  • Florida
  • PENN STATE

ELA- thank you for doing this again this season. I truly appreciate it and enjoy it, and it’s fairly obvious that everyone else does too
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ELA

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2022, 09:44:10 PM »
Too many political threads.  I'll even take hypothetical college football over that
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ELA

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2022, 12:21:32 AM »
WEEK TWO
Friday, September 9
Central Florida d. Louisville
Boise State d. New Mexico

Saturday, September 10
ESPN College Gameday, live from Austin, TX
#1 Alabama d. #19 Texas


  • #2 OHIO STATE d. Arkansas State
  • #3 Georgia d. Samford
  • #4 Clemson d. Furman
  • #5 MICHIGAN d. Hawaii
  • #6 Texas A&M d. Appalachian State
  • #7 USC d. Stanford
  • #8 Notre Dame d. Marshall
  • #9 MICHIGAN STATE d. Akron
  • Arizona State d. #10 Oklahoma State
  • #11 Oklahoma d. Kent State
  • #12 Utah d. Southern Utah
  • #13 Ole Miss d. Central Arkansas
  • #14 NC State d. Charleston Southern
  • #15 IOWA d. Iowa State
  • #16 Houston d. Texas Tech
  • Pittsburgh d. #18 Tennessee
  • #20 Cincinnati d. Kennesaw State
  • #21 Oregon d. Southern Utah
  • #22 PURDUE d. Indiana State
  • #23 Arkansas d. South Carolina
  • #24 Kentucky d. Florida
  • #25 BYU d. #17 Baylor



  • Air Force d. Colorado
  • Arizona d. Mississippi State
  • Army d. UTSA
  • Auburn d. San Jose State
  • Boston College d. Virginia Tech
  • Bowling Green d. Eastern Kentucky
  • Buffalo d. Holy Cross
  • California d. UNLV
  • Central Michigan d. South Alabama
  • Coastal Carolina d. Garnder-Webb
  • Colorado State d. Middle Tennessee
  • Duke d. NORTHWESTERN
  • Florida Atlantic d. SE Louisiana
  • Georgia Tech d. Western Carolina
  • INDIANA d. Idaho
  • James Madison d. Norfolk State
  • Kansas State d. Missouri
  • Louisiana d. Eastern Michigan
  • Louisiana Tech d. Stephen F. Austin
  • LSU d. Southern
  • MARYLAND d. Charlotte
  • Miami d. Southern Miss
  • Miami(Ohio) d. Robert Morris
  • MINNESOTA d. Western Illinois
  • Navy d. Memphis
  • NEBRASKA d. Georgia Southern
  • Nevada d. Incarnate Word
  • North Carolina d. Georgia State
  • North Texas d. Texas Southern
  • Old Dominion d. East Carolina
  • Oregon State d. Fresno State
  • PENN STATE d. Ohio
  • Rice d. McNeese
  • RUTGERS d. Wagner
  • San Diego State d. Idaho State
  • SMU d. Lamar
  • South Florida d. Howard
  • Syracuse d. Connecticut
  • TCU d. Tarleton
  • Temple d. Lafayette
  • Texas State d. FIU
  • Toledo d. Massachusetts
  • Troy d. Alabama A&M
  • Tulane d. Alcorn State
  • Tulsa d. Northern Illinois
  • UAB d. Liberty
  • UCLA d. Alabama State
  • UL Monroe d. Nicholls
  • Utah State d. Weber State
  • UTEP d. NM State
  • Virginia d. ILLINOIS
  • Wake Forest d. Vanderbilt
  • Washington d. Portland State
  • West Virginia d. Kansas
  • Western Michigan d. Ball State
  • WISCONSIN d. Washington State
  • Wyoming d. Northern Colorado




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