2022 NFL Thread

[MikeDeTiger]

Herbie is just there collecting checks (can't say I blame him). His analysis is strictly "I remember this guy in college".

His chemistry with Al Michaels is terrible.  I guess it could get better, but they are two totally different vibes.  Michaels and Collinsworth worked well.  Herbie and Fowler work well.  This Thursday night thing is a mess.  Maybe it would help if the games weren't steaming turds.

[MikeDeTiger]

The "go for it on 4th and 2 from x-yard line" is "just" an average line in the sand, but it takes into account all that you mentioned.  All the play types and qualities of teams and the ebbs and flows of success.  It's a number to inform a coach.  I may not want to go for it in the first quarter, as getting in an early hole is something I really want to avoid, even if the likelihood is technically "worth it."

That's what I'm getting at.  I don't see that an average line in the sand is very useful compared to a line (so to speak) more suited to your particular situation.  In business analytics, something like this would be a good starting point, but then I'd be tasked with coming up with additional parameters and running it through some machine learning algorithm to see if I could refine the metric for situational use.  Maybe this doesn't work anything like that--I wouldn't know.  

An average for 4th and 1 succeeding means little to me if MY team sucks at 4th and 1.  That is counterintuitive.  

At any rate, I'm seeing a lot of these "analytics decisions" blowing up.  

[Mdot21]

these guys were the same age (45) and playing in the NFL when these pics were taken....how? Brady looks 35 here. Stabler looks 65. Booze and drugs? 


https://twitter.com/Super70sSports/status/1582775615081439236?s=20&t=1ktstIjJMCGRMuXunt4l2Q

[Mdot21]

actually just reading that thread...Stabler was only 39 when that pic was taken. HOLY SHIT. LMAO.

[Mdot21]

CBS Sports latest updated 1st RD 2023 NFL Mock Draft -

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2023-nfl-mock-draft-packers-land-talented-tight-end-chiefs-get-pass-rushing-stud-to-pair-with-chris-jones/

1) QB CJ Stroud, Ohio State - Houston Texas
2) QB Bryce Young, Alabama - Carolina Panthers
3) EDGE Will Anderson, Alabama - Chicago Bears
4) OL Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State - Washington Commanders
5) LB Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech - Seattle Seahawks
6) LB Trenton Simpson, Clemson - Detroit Lions
7) OL Peter Skoronski, Northwestern - Pittsburgh Steelers
8) EDGE Myles Murphy, Clemson - Atlanta Falcons
9) EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State - Houston Texans
10) CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois - Arizona Cardinals
11) OL Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State - New York Jets
12) DL Jalen Carter, Georgia - Philadelphia Eagles
13) LB Jack Campbell, Iowa - Las Vegas Raiders
14) WR Quentin Johnston, TCU - Jacksonville Jaguars
15) CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia - Tennessee Titans
16) QB Anthony Richardson, Florida - New York Giants - LMFAO
17) CB Brian Branch, Alabama - New England Patriots
18) FORFEITED by Miami Dolphins
19) DL Bryan Breese, Clemson - Seattle Seahawks
20) OL Anton Harrison, Oklahoma - Indianapolis Colts
21) OL Broderick Jones, Georgia - Cincinnati Bengals
22) QB Will Levis, Kentucky - Detroit Lions - UH...NO.
23) WR Jordan Addison, USC - Dallas Cowboys
24) DL Gervon Dexter, Florida - Los Angeles Chargers
25) TE Darnell Washington, Georgia - Green Bay Packers
26) CB DJ Turner, Michigan - Baltimore Ravens
27) OL Dawand Jones, Ohio State - Miami Dolphins
28) CB Clark Phillips III, Utah - Minnesota Vikings
29) TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame - Tampa Bay Bucs
30) DL Kobie Turner, Wake Forrest - Kansas City Chiefs
31) RB Bijan Robinson, Texas - Philadelphia Eagles
32) OL O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida - Buffalo Bills

initial thoughts....this mock draft sucks and these people suck at doing these...

also....no JSN in the 1st rd at all? Yeah, OK. Jack Campbell is a damn good player- but he's not getting drafted that high. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Bills take someone like Blake Corum at 32 either. They need RBs- especially one that can hit the home run- and Blake is 4.3-4.4 FAST.

also: Bowers not in the 1st rd makes zero sense to me. 

[Mdot21]

Baron Browning is looking like a stud for the Broncos as an OLB/Rush LB and a potential steal as a 3rd pick. Kinda makes you wonder why Ohio State used him as a MIKE LB and didn't use him as a pass rusher/OLB. Dude was an OMG 5 STARZ and top 10 player overall in his class and his college career was pretty meh. 

[MrNubbz]

Baron Browning is looking like a stud for the Broncos as an OLB/Rush LB and a potential steal as a 3rd pick. Kinda makes you wonder why Ohio State used him as a MIKE LB and didn't use him as a pass rusher/OLB. Dude was an OMG 5 STARZ and top 10 player overall in his class and his college career was pretty meh.

Revolving door of defensive coaches while he was there,Schiano,Mattison,Hafley,Grinch,Washington.They didn't utilize him correctly for sure

[OrangeAfroMan]

Anthony Richardson may very well be a 1st-round pick.....in 2024.

[ELA]

Lions still need all kinds of front seven help.  Hutchinson I think will be fine, and Malcolm Rodriguez looks like a steal, but you can't have your two best front seven players be rookies.

If either Will Anderson or Jalen Carter is there with their first pick, you jump on them.  I think I prefer Carter.  Honestly, if Will Levis is there late first, you kind of have to take him, but he won't be.  He's going top 5.  And I don't necessarily disagree.  I'm not convinced he's worse than Stroud.  Depending on whether they go interior line (Carter) or LB (Anderson) with their first pick, I'd take the opposite out of LB Isaiah Foskey (ND) or DL Gervon Dexter (Florida) with the second pick.

Im a little intrigued by KJ Jefferson at the top of the 2nd, if they are going to go QB early

[Mdot21]

Lions still need all kinds of front seven help.  Hutchinson I think will be fine, and Malcolm Rodriguez looks like a steal, but you can't have your two best front seven players be rookies.

If either Will Anderson or Jalen Carter is there with their first pick, you jump on them.  I think I prefer Carter.  Honestly, if Will Levis is there late first, you kind of have to take him, but he won't be.  He's going top 5.  And I don't necessarily disagree.  I'm not convinced he's worse than Stroud.  Depending on whether they go interior line (Carter) or LB (Anderson) with their first pick, I'd take the opposite out of LB Isaiah Foskey (ND) or DL Gervon Dexter (Florida) with the second pick.

Im a little intrigued by KJ Jefferson at the top of the 2nd, if they are going to go QB early

I don't believe in Will Levis at all. The only QBs I'd touch in the first this draft are Bryce or CJ Stroud and that's basically it.

If I'm running the Lions I am targeting Will Anderson or Jalen Carter with my first pick in the first round. This game is still won and lost in the trenches. And yeah, they SUCK in the front 7 on defense. I'd then use my other first round pick and my second round pick on any combination of Isaiah Foskey, Bryan Breese, Gervon Dexter, Myles Murphy, Jack Campbell, Zachh Pickens, Noah Sewell, Trenton Simpson, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Siaki Ika, Tyree Simpson- just take whoever you can get in the front 7. 

[Mdot21]

Panthers trade RB Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers for 2nd, 3rd & 4th round picks in 2023 and a 5th round pick in 2024. Wow. I'm thinking he's about to explode in that Shannahan offense.

[GopherRock]

Panthers trade RB Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers for 2nd, 3rd & 4th round picks in 2023 and a 5th round pick in 2024. Wow. I'm thinking he's about to explode in that Shannahan offense.

SF should have sent that trade package to Green Bay in the off-season for Aaron Rodgers. They're gonna look really stupid when McCaffrey gets hurt before Thanksgiving and is out for the season. 

I remember when a team that fancied themselves a Super Bowl contender sent a pile of picks to a bottom feeder for an RB that they thought would push them over the top. Vikings didn't do anything with Herschel Walker, but the Cowboys sure did. 

[Mdot21]

sounds like the Lions might finally mix in the 3-4 and put Hutchinson at Rush OLB/EDGE and in a two point stance. Good move. They should move to the 3-4 permanently. I don't know why anyone would run any other defense....Steelers forever, Patriots, NY Giants (with LT)...imo 3-4 best defense there is. It just is. 


https://twitter.com/kmeinke/status/1583480117921468416?s=20&t=Uxg-bC6wHQxXol75qM9W9Q

[Mdot21]

https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-season-s-top-10-shutdown-cornerbacks-eagles-duo-leads-group-sauce-gardn

Eagles have the #1 and #2 CB in NextGen Stats "Coverage Score" - it supposedly measures how well CBs do in man coverage...former Detroit Lions CB Darius Slay is #2 in the entire NFL in this metric according to them.

Have to wonder how much better this Lions defense is with a legit Pro Bowl CB still on the roster and how much better Okudah could be with some help and a vet to learn from had they not traded away a top flight CB to the Eagles for a ham sandwich. 

Sauce Gardner - a rookie - already in the top 10. Impressive. He's gonna be really good.