League title chase update, I'll start from the bottom:
Mathematically eliminated:
The Nittany Lions, Badgers, Huskers, Buckeyes, and Gophers each have more than seven losses so they are mathematically eliminated.
Need to win out:
The Terps, Illini, Hawkeyes, Scarlet Knights, Wolverines, and Spartans each have seven losses so they are mathematically in the race for a share but they are practically eliminated because they would need all of the following to get a share:
- They would need to win the rest of their games, and
- They would need Purdue to lose all the rest of their games, and
- They would need Northwestern to lose at least twice, and
- They would need Indiana to lose at least once
- In MSU's case, they would need the MN game to be rescheduled.
Thus, as a practical matter, this is down to a three team race between Northwestern and the two teams from Indiana. For those, I'll start at the top and go a little deeper here:
13-4 Purdue:
It is still the Boilermakers' race to lose. If they win out they win it outright no matter what happens behind them. FWIW, Purdue loses all ties. If they win two out of three they win at least a share. Their last three are:
- vs Indiana on Saturday, 2/25 at 730 on FOX.
- at Wisconsin on Thursday, 3/2 at 9 on FS1.
- vs Illinois on Sunday, 3/5 at 12:30pm on FOX.
11-5 Northwestern:
I can't remember a year when the Wildcats were this close to the league leader this late in the season. If they win out and Purdue loses one of their last three, they'll win a share of the title and they win the tiebreaker. Their last four are:
- at Illinois on Thursday, 2/23 at 9 on BTN.
- at Maryland on Sunday, 2/26 at noon on BTN. (Note that this is AFTER Purdue's game against IU so it *COULD* be for the league lead if everything breaks right for the Wildcats).
- vs Penn State on Wednesday, 3/1 at 9 on BTN.
- at Rutgers on Sunday, 3/5 at 730 on BTN. This (along with UW@MN at the same time) is literally the LAST B1G regular season game to tip off so if everything breaks right, the final game of the season could be for the title.
10-6 Indiana:
The Hoosiers have the advantage of getting a crack at Purdue but the disadvantage of having to play a game in Mackey. If the Hoosiers lose in Mackey, they are mathematically eliminated. They can lose any other game and still be in it mathematically but that drops them into the seven-loss group where they need a series of miracles for it to happen so as a practical matter, they have to win out. Indiana's last four are:
- at Michigan State on Tuesday, 2/21 at 9 on ESPN.
- at Purdue on Saturday, 2/25 at 730 on FOX.
- vs Iowa on Tuesday, 2/28 at 7
- vs Michigan on Sunday, 3/5 at 430
Indiana (@MSU) and Northwestern (@IL) are both on the road this week and if they both lose that will pretty much do it. However, if one or both of them win then the Indiana/Purdue game this weekend in West Lafayette becomes VERY important.