League title race update:
Obviously it is still Purdue's race to lose. They are two up in the loss column with five to go so:
- If Purdue goes 4-1 or better they win outright.
- If Purdue goes 3-2 they are guaranteed at least a share.
- If Purdue goes 2-3 or worse then the door is open.
Penn State, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Minnesota each have nine or more losses so they are mathematically eliminated.
Wisconsin has eight losses. They are mathematically in the race but only if they win out and Purdue loses out so, as a practical matter, they are out.
The six-loss teams:
UMD, MSU, IA, RU, and M each have six losses. They are mathematically in the race but only Purdue goes 2-3 or worse down the stretch.
I'm going to ignore the teams with six or more losses for now because they are only in the race if Purdue basically collapses down the stretch and they win out (or close to it). That brings us to:
The five-loss teams:
Northwestern, Indiana, and Illinois each have five losses so each could tie Purdue by winning out if Purdue finishes 3-2. That said, only one of them can actually do that because they all play each other:
- Northwestern: hosts IU on Wednesday, travels to Urbana-Champaign on 2/23.
- Indiana: visits Evanston on Wednesday, hosts Illinois on Saturday.
- Illinois: visits Bloomington on Saturday, hosts Northwestern on 2/23.
In addition to their games against each other, Indiana (2/25) and Illinois (3/5) both visit Mackey. As a practical matter, the chances of any of them winning out are minimal.