Right now, the nerd math projects UW finishing one game out of functional lock status, which I'm guessing would mean needing to win twice in Indy (18-13 is probably in, 18-14 is our bubble, 19-14 that includes a higher-level Big Ten win is probably in). The biggest BTT risk is that if the seeds fall wrong, they might get a PSU-Purdue path, and I want none of that.
The projected win percentages the rest of the way:
74
58
56
52
41
30
26
So it's basically about going 4-1 in that top group, which means win three of the next four. If they want to win the next four or win three and then upset someone to take the pressure off that last game, I'd take that as well.