Over the weekend all 14 teams played and there was only one result not correctly predicted by the tiers, Northwestern's win in Madison.
Northwestern is just an odd case. There have now been a total of 20 upsets and the Wildcats have been involved in more than a third of them, seven. Northwestern has played 12 games and more than half have not gone according to the projections. It would be easy to say that we have them in the wrong tier except that the upsets do not really lean one way or the other. they have four positive upsets (road wins in East Lansing, Bloomington, Lincoln, and Madison) and three negative upsets (home losses to Ohio State, Rutgers, and Michigan). I see no way to square that circle other than just to say that the Wildcats, for whatever reason, are just a highly unpredictable team.
So with that upset not much changes but here are the updated projected final standings/BTT seeds:
- 18-2/29-2 Purdue
- 12-8/21-10 Illinois
- 12-8/20-11 Rutgers
- 12-8/20-11 Michigan State
- 11-9/19-12 Iowa
- 11-9/20-11 Penn State
- 11-9/20-11 Maryland
- 11-9/17-14 Michigan
- 11-9/20-11 Northwestern
- 11-9/20-11 Indiana
- 9-11/17-13 Wisconsin
- 7-13/14-17 Nebraska
- 3-17/11-20 Ohio State
- 1-19/7-23 Minnesota
Tiebreakers:
The three-way tie at 12-8 is broken first based on H2H2H:
- 2-0 Illinois because they do not visit Piscataway nor East Lansing
- 1-2 Rutgers because they do not host the Illini. They beat MSU due to a better record against PU
- 1-2 Michigan State because they do not host the Illini. They lose to RU due to a worse record against PU
The six-way tie at 11-9 is broken first based on H2H2H2H2H2H:
- 4-3 Iowa ties PSU and UMD in the six-way H2H, beats PSU and UMD based on record against the 12-8 teams
- 4-3 Penn State ties IA and UMD in the six-way H2H, finishes between them based on record against the 12-8 teams
- 4-3 Maryland ties IA and PSU in the six-way H2H, loses to them based on record against the 12-8 teams
- 5-4 Michigan because they do not host Iowa and beat Northwestern in Evanston
- 4-4 Northwestern because they do not host Maryland, do not travel to State College, beat Indiana in Bloomington, and lost to Michigan in Evanston
- 2-6 Indiana because they do not host Maryland nor Penn State and lost at home to Northwestern.
Thus the projected match-ups for the BTT at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois would be:
Wednesday, March 8, BTN:
- #11 Wisconsin vs #14 Minnesota, 830
- #12 Nebraska vs #13 Ohio State, 6
Thursday, March 9, BTN:
- #5 Iowa vs UNL/tOSU, 230
- #6 Penn State vs UW/MN, 9
- #7 Maryland vs #10 Indiana, 630
- #8 Michigan vs #9 Northwestern, noon
Friday, March 10, BTN:
- #1 Purdue vs M/NU, noon
- #2 Illinois vs UMD/IU, 630
- #3 Rutgers vs PSU/UW/MN, 9
- #4 Michigan State vs IA/UNL/tOSU, 230
Saturday, March 11, CBS:
- PU/M/NU vs MSU/IA/UNL/tOSU, 1
- IL/UMD/IU vs RU/PSU/UW/MN, 330
Sunday, March 12, CBS:
- PU/M/NU/MSU/IA/UNL/tOSU vs IL/UMD/IU/RU/PSU/UW/MN, 330
At this point it appears that Ohio State and Wisconsin have separated themselves from the group, in a negative way. That said, there is still a lot of fluidity here. Our projected #2 seed (IL) is projected to finish only ONE GAME ahead of our projected #10 seed (IU) so for each of the teams in that 2-10 group even a single upset can mean a dramatic change in projected seeding.
Additionally, while Minnesota, Ohio State, and Nebraska are too far behind in the loss column to catch up with the group, the Badgers are still tied in the loss column with Penn State, just one game behind MSU, and only two games down to UMD, NU, IU, IL, IA, and M. Thus, if Wisconsin can get things figured out and pull a couple of upsets they are right back in the thick of the 2-10 group. They are rapidly running out of time, but it wouldn't be impossible.
Speaking of Wisconsin, I think that the next two games are crucial for them. They visit State College this week and Lincoln this weekend. Both are projected losses but neither seems altogether impossible for the Badgers to win. If they DO lose both, I think they join UNL, tOSU, and MN as the league's crappy teams. If they win both, they are back in the thick of the 2-10 group. Split and they are kinda half-way.