2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[medinabuckeye1]

If the fancystats are right, OSU projects as a 1.5-2 point underdog.

No big guy like the last few years, however.

The scores ap on my phone shows tOSU as a 1 point underdog. I think that is generous to the Buckeyes, they are ridiculously overseeeded as a #7. 

[bayareabadger]

The scores ap on my phone shows tOSU as a 1 point underdog. I think that is generous to the Buckeyes, they are ridiculously overseeeded as a #7.

 Ridiculously? 

In what sense? 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Not a huge fan of the potential matchup with a Chris Beard team in R32... His style of play is not the best matchup for Purdue. We're more athletic than we were some of those years though... 

[ELA]

Welp, told my son if OSU wound up in Pittsburgh, I'd buy tickets

[medinabuckeye1]

Ridiculously?

In what sense?

It is mostly a time/injury issue. Right now they aren't a tournament quality team at all. By overall body of work this isn't out of line.

I'd probably have more recency bias than the committee so I'd have Rutgers higher and tOSU lower.

[medinabuckeye1]

Welp, told my son if OSU wound up in Pittsburgh, I'd buy tickets

I'd love to be wrong but I'm fairly confident that you and your son are going to be see the Buckeyes lose again.

[MaximumSam]

Welp, told my son if OSU wound up in Pittsburgh, I'd buy tickets

That's awesome! Getting those NCAA package tickets is pretty cool. Can watch them and Nova.

[MaximumSam]

Times are out:

Tuesday: 9:15, TruTv, #12 Indiana v. #12 Wyoming, (winner played #5 St. Mary's at 7:20 on Thursday)
Wednesday: 9:10, Trutv, #11 Rutgers v. #11 Notre Dame (winner plays #6 Alabama at 4:15 Friday)
Thursday

• #11 Michigan v. #6 Colorado State, 12:15, CBS
• #5 Iowa v. #12 Richmond, 3:10, truTV

Friday

• #7 Ohio State v. #10 Loyola Chicago, 12:15, CBS
• #3 Purdue v. #14 Yale, 2 pm, TBS
• #4 Illinois v. #13 Chattanooga, 6:50, TNT
• #7 Michigan State v. #10 Davidson, 9:40, CBS
• #3 Wisconsin v. #14 Colgate, 9:50, TBS

[Brutus Buckeye]

How many sub-NIT tournaments are there? 

I had heard of the CBI and the CIT, but what in the Hell is the Basketball Classic? 

[ELA]

That's awesome! Getting those NCAA package tickets is pretty cool. Can watch them and Nova.

Worst case scenario we get to skip school to watch a full day of basketball

[medinabuckeye1]

So the final result is the following seeds:

• #3 Purdue, Wisconsin
• #4 Illinois
• #5 Iowa
• #7 Michigan State, Ohio State
• #11 Michigan, Rutgers (as a play-in)
• #12 Indiana (as a play-in)

Based on past history of those seeds, here is what those nine teams should accomplish (NOTE: I'm treating RU as 1/2 of an 11 seed and Indiana as 1/2 of a 12 seed because they have to win a play-in to get to the 64 team bracket and I'm just treating that as a 50/50 proposition).  

• 5.07 teams in the R32
• 2.56 teams in the S16
• 0.96 team in the E8
• 0.46 teams in the F4
• 0.21 teams in the NC
• 0.08 NC's

Here is the chart and here is then then the explanation:

• #3 seeds win their R64 game 84.72% of the time.  We have two so that should get us 1.69 team in the R32.  
• #4 seeds win their R64 game 78.47% of the time.  We have one so that should get us 0.78 teams in the R32.  
• #5 seeds win their R64 game 64.58% of the time.  We have one so that should get us 0.65 teams in the R32.  Note that cumulatively these four teams should win barely over three opening games (3.12) so statistically it is fairly likely that one of them will lose.  
• #7 seeds win their R64 game 60.42% of the time.  We have two so that should get us 1.21 teams in the R32.  
• #11 seeds win their R64 game 37.50% of the time.  We have 1-1/2 so that should get us 0.56 teams in the R32.  
• #12 seeds win their R64 game 35.42% of the time.  We have 1/2 so that should get us 0.18 teams in the R32.  
• Add that up and you have just over five teams in the R32.  

I've used the same table of past results to also calculate the number of S16, E8, F4, NCG, and NC teams.  Note that the deeper you get into the tournament the more the expected results are dependent upon the two #3 seeds (PU and UW):

• We have 5.07 teams getting to the R32, the two #3 seeds are just 1/3 of that total.  
• We have 2.56 teams making the S16, the two #3 seeds are 41% of that total.  
• We have 0.96 teams making the E8, the two #3 seeds are over half of that total.  
• We have 0.47 teams making the F4, the two #3 seeds are over half of that total.  
• We have 0.21 teams making the NC Game, the two #3 seeds are nearly 3/4 of that total.  
• We have 0.08 NC's, the two #3 seeds are nearly 3/4 of that total. 

[medinabuckeye1]

What to expect for your team:
#3 seeds Purdue and Wisconsin:

• 84.72% chance to make the R32
• 52.08% chance to make the S16
• 25.69% chance to make the E8
• 11.81% chance to make the F4
• 7.64% chance to make the NC
• 2.78% chance to win the NC

#4 seed Illinois:

• 78.47% chance to make the R32
• 46.53% chance to make the S16
• 14.58% chance to make the E8
• 9.03% chance to make the F4
• 2.08% chance to make the NC
• 0.69% chance to win the NC

#5 seed Iowa:

• 64.58% chance to make the R32
• 34.03% chance to make the S16
• 6.25% chance to make the E8
• 4.86% chance to make the F4
• 2.08% chance to make the NC
• 0.00% chance to win the NC - NOTE:  The chance isn't actually ZERO but no #5 seed has ever done it so based on past history, it is.  

#7 seeds Michigan State and Ohio State:

• 60.42% chance to make the R32
• 19.44% chance to make the S16
• 6.94% chance to make the E8
• 3.47% chance to make the F4
• 2.08% chance to make the NC
• 0.69% chance to win the NC

#11 seeds Michigan and Rutgers (for Rutgers cut all of these in half because you have to win the play-in to actually BE the #11 seed):

• 37.50% chance to make the R32
• 16.67% chance to make the S16
• 6.25% chance to make the E8
• 3.47% chance to make the F4
• 0.00% chance to make the NC - NOTE:  See above wrt Iowa.  

#12 seed Indiana (cut all of these in half because they have to win the play-in to actually BE the #12 seed):

• 35.42% chance to make the R32
• 15.28% chance to make the S16
• 1.39% chance to make the E8
• 0.00% chance to make the F4 - NOTE:  See above.  

[medinabuckeye1]

It depends. For context, Scott Drew is in his 19th season at Baylor. They have advanced past the second weekend four times and won the conference one time. But I think the school is pretty happy he is there. Basketball is a fickle sport and you don't just need a good coach, but also a lot of luck and a lot of stars aligning. Malaki Branham having a great season and likely headed to the pros isn't just a credit to him, it's a credit to Holtmann to have a freshman buy in and play so efficiently. But it also hurts next year's team a lot. That's not something you ding a coach for.

I wouldn't feel comfortable moving on until I'm reasonably sure what I have. The timing is weird but if he was a coach like Fran, I'd feel more comfortable moving on, because it feels like Fran's teams have a real cap because they never play great defense. But if they do round into form defensively and they are fielding good teams, you keep the coach. The risk of getting worse, or much worse, is much greater than the chance at getting better.

I'm a little more pessimistic and a little less patient than you.  

My coaching decision matrix basically starts with assessing the school's long-term average performance:

• Ohio State has 20 league titles in ~100 years of league BB so that is roughly one every five years.  
• Ohio State also has 14 S16's and 10F4's but those are all-time numbers so not really comparable to the current format.  Still, I consider a S16 to be somewhat equivalent to a league title so my view is that the program on average is good for any combination of two league titles and/or S16's every five years.  

That is the baseline.  If the current coach is performing below the baseline it is time to move on.  If he is performing near the baseline then he is no better than the average coach for your program so be thinking about moving on but no rush.  If he is above the baseline then you want to keep him.  

Holtmann is clearly below the baseline but he isn't THAT far off.  I think it is time to move on but I'm not in THAT big of a hurry about it.  

I also view the risks MUCH differently than you do.  My threshold for a memorable BB season is either a league title or a S16 appearance.  If we are below that then the difference between being slightly below that and WAY below that is basically negligible to me.  If we aren't winning league titles or making S16 appearances then I really don't care whether we are three games out of first (tOSU this year) or 11 games out of first (UNL this year).  Either way you didn't win a league title and you didn't make an appearance in the S16.  

I'll add this on time since I asked you:
Ohio State's average is a league title roughly every five years.  Holtmann is about to complete year five without a league title.  He is behind but, to be fair, he is only down by one relative to the average.  I think the team is going to regress next year and at that point he'll be down by 1.2 relative to the average.  If I were tOSU's AD I would not allow that number to get above 1.5 unless there was clear improvement such that it looked like things were looking up dramatically.  Thus, my maximum timeline is as follows:

• 2017/18 - 2021/22 is five years, average is 1 title, Holtmann has zero, he is -1.  
• 2017/18 - 2022/23 is six years, average is 1.2 titles, if Holtmann still has zero he'll be at -1.2.  
• 2017/18 - 2023/24 is seven years, average is 1.4 titles, if Holtmann still has zero he'll be at -1.4.  
• 2017/18 - 2024/25 is eight years, average is 1.6 titles, if Holtmann still has zero I would be 100% in favor of moving on.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Damn. I'll be in Paso Robles for the weekend. Wine tasting Friday before the Purdue game concludes.

Hopefully I can remain radio silent Sunday long enough to watch the R32 game (assuming they advance) on DVR.