2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[ELA]

71% and 82% FT shooters get a combined 1 of 6 points at the line.

[ELA]

Wisconsin can't feel much better about their FT shooting.

Don't let the door hit you on the way out Grayson Davison

[ELA]

Maybe step out on the only guy for Wisconsin who has made a shot in the past 5 minutes?

[bayareabadger]

Huh, and the top guy from that 2018 class gets them the win. Quite a day.

Also, man did UW's free throw shooters pick a day to all miss a bushel of important ones. Ugh. 

[ELA]

Huh, and the top guy from that 2018 class gets them the win. Quite a day.

Also, man did UW's free throw shooters pick a day to all miss a bushel of important ones. Ugh.

And nice of Brad Davison to have a final night like this after playing 2nd fiddle to, I assumed Michael Finlney?, in his class

Above I complained about a 71% and 82% FT shooters leaving 5 of 6 points open at the line in the final minutes, and then Wisconsin matched them.  In conference play, MSU is #1 in the Big Ten in 3pt shooting, and Wisconsin is dead last.  If you told me Wisconsin essentially shot their average, and MSU was 30% below, I would have assumed a 20 point loss.  Wisconsin was bad at the line, got nothing inside, and MSU turned the ball over the same number of times (7) as they did in the final 3 minutes yesterday

[bayareabadger]

And nice of Brad Davison to have a final night like this after playing 2nd fiddle to, I assumed Michael Finlney?, in his class

Second-to-last at least, I hope. Catching a push off elbow to the nads felt about right.

Now, now, he's younger than Finley. Dick Bennett had him as a commit off that Final Four, but Bo had to hold him through the coaching change.

[ELA]

There is no way David was 100%, so maybe resting up for the real tourney is a hidden blessing.

I also think MSU is a bad matchup for Wahl, because we have waves of guys who are too unathletic to be 3s, but slightly undersized 4s, who are just worse versions of him.  But we have like 5 of them to keep subbing it.  

[ELA]

Also bummed I missed Johnny Davis flashing L signs at a team he lost 2 of 3 meetings to this year after the game

[ELA]

Get yourself a hype man like Purdue has for every single broadcast in Robbie Hummel

[medinabuckeye1]

Oh I disagree with that. For one, we have already lost a good coach in Gary Williams leaving for Maryland. My biggest fear with Holtmann is his teams start rolling and we lose him to Kentucky. OSU is not a first tier basketball school by any definition and likely never will be. They do have strong resources, but they have a crappy arena and tepid fan support. It's not a destination job, which doesn't mean someone wouldn't stay there, but I'd say there's a lot of guys who would jump to the top tiers of the world if they had a chance.

Gary Williams played his college ball at Maryland and went home when called.  

I get that this isn't football and we aren't tier-1, but we aren't very far off. 
Here is a list of F4 appearances by program.  Ohio State is tied with MSU for 6th/7th with 10 (# program):

• 20 UNC
• 18 UCLA
• 17 Kentucky
• 16 Dook
• 15 Kansas
• 10 Michigan State
• 10 Ohio State
• 8 Indiana
• 8 L'Ville
• 6 Arkansas
• 6 Cincy
• 6 Houston
• 6 Michigan
• 6 OkSU
• 6 Cuse

We are not quite as good in S16's but ere is a list of programs with the most S16 appearances.  Ohio State is tied with Maryland for 18th/19th with 14.  The top-8 have at least half-again as many as Ohio State but the others aren't all that far ahead of us (#, program, last):

• 44 Kentucky 2019
• 34 UCLA 2021
• 34 UNC 2019
• 31 DOOK 2019
• 31 Kansas 2018
• 24 L'Ville 2015
• 24 Cuse 2021
• 22 Indiana 2016
• 20 MSU 2019
• 19 Zona 2018
• 18 Villanova 2021
• 17 K State 2018
• 17 Notre Dame 2016
• 17 UCONN 2014
• 16 Michigan 2021
• 16 Marquette 2013
• 16 Utah 2015
• 14 Ohio State 2013
• 14 Maryland 2002

The top-5 on both lists are the same and those are the ONLY programs that I would consider to be clearly superior to Ohio State:  Kentucky, UCLA, UNC, Dook, Kansas.  Then there are 12 programs ahead of Ohio State in S16's but behind (or tied in the case of MSU) in F4's.  Those 12 have an argument and some have a better argument than others but it is close enough that reasonable people can be on either side of those debates. 

Then there is Maryland which has the same number of S16's but only two F4's (to tOSU's 10).  Maryland is *MAYBE* equal to Ohio State.  I'd argue that they are NOT simply because the bulk of their success occurred in one magical spurt under the aforementioned Gary Williams.  He didn't do much in his first four years at Maryland (89/90 - 92/93) but then he went on an amazing run for 11 seasons during which he achieved:

• An NC, Maryland's only.  
• Two F4's, Maryland's only.  
• Seven S16's, half of Maryland's total.  
• 11 straight NCAA Appearances, more than one-third of Maryland's total.  

I don't think Maryland, as a program, is the equal of Ohio State because that one 11 year stretch accounts for so much of their total all-time accomplishments.  

IMHO there is a CLEAR top-5 in BB and Ohio State is somewhere in the next tier of probably a couple dozen programs that are just as good as the top-tier once in a while but haven't been able to achieve the consistency that the top programs have.  

[medinabuckeye1]

I will continue the drumbeat that conference titles and tourney advancement are fun and great, they are awful measures for judging the coach. The team was top 15 the last two years and likely would have been again this year if not for some rotten injury luck. That's not something you throw away willingly if you want to keep your job.

This is just silly.  If you are not judging your coach by the performance of his teams on the court then there is nothing to judge him by.  

I'll add that, to an extent, I get where you are coming from and, to an extent, I agree.  The #2 seed loss in the first round doesn't *REALLY* bother me as a one-off thing.  The home loss to a horrible Nebraska team doesn't really bother me as a one-off thing.  

I'm a statistics guy.  You are right to the extent that in a given game or a given season things go sideways.  There hasn't been an undefeated team since I was in diapers because the better team doesn't win every game.  By extension that also means that the better team doesn't always advance in the tournament and the best team doesn't always win the league.  

That said, time balances these things out.  If Ohio State has the best team in the B1G next year they will not necessarily win the league but if they are in the top two or three for the next four years straight they are bound to win a league title in there somewhere.  Here is what Holtmann's teams have done at Ohio State:

• 25-9/15-3, tied for 2nd/3rd in the B1G, one game out of first.  Two seed in the BTT, lost their opener.  Five seed in the NCAA, beat #12, lost to #4.  
• 20-15/8-12, tied for 8th/9th in the B1G, eight games out of first.  Eight seed in the BTT, beat #9 and lost to #1.  Eleven seed in the NCAA, beat #6, lost to #3.  
• 21-10/11-9, tied for 5th/6th/7th/8th in the B1G, three games out of first.  Seven seed in the BTT, BTT and NCAA cancelled.  
• 21-10/12-8, 5th in the B1G, three-and-a-half games out of first.  Five seed in the BTT, made it to the CG and lost.  Two seed in the NCAA, lost to #15.  
• 19-11/12-8 (so far), tied for 4th/5th/6th in the B1G, three games out of first.  Six seed in the BTT, lost to #11.  NCAA TBD but will likely be an 8/9 seed and see another first weekend exit.  

We are paying Holtmann MILLIONS of dollars a year to coach BB and we haven't finished within three games of the B1G Title since his first year (Matta's recruits).  We haven't been to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament in a decade.  

Tournament performance relative to seed:
The data-set is pretty limited here with just three completed tournaments but Holtmann's teams have been a #5 seed, a #11 seed, and a #2 seed.  Those seeds, on average, will achieve:

• 1.95 first round wins.  Holtmann's teams have two so he is up a little.  
• 1.14 S16 appearances.  Holtmann's teams have ZERO so he is way down here.  
• 0.58 E8 appearances.  Holtmann's teams have ZERO so he is down here but could catch up in one year.  
• 0.28 F4 appearances.  Holtmann's teams have ZEOR so he is down here but it rounds to zero anyway.  
• 0.10 NC appearances.  Holtmann's teams have ZERO so he is down but not by much.  
• 0.03 NC's.  Holtmann's teams have ZERO so he is down but not by much.  

Note on the above:
I don't put too much stock in this because the coach is responsible for the season which generates the seed.  If he has a crappy season (2018-19) and gets a low seed (#11) but then pulls off an upset the upset is nice but he is also responsible for getting the low seed due to the crappy season in the first place.  Conversely if he has a nice season (2020-21) and gets a high seed but then gets upset the upset sucks but he is also responsible for getting the high seed due to the nice season in the first place.  

The loss as a #2 seed last year was Holtmann's only first round NCAA loss so far and my point about statistics is basically that if you simply traded 2021's and 2019's Tournament performances such that his teams went 1-1 as a #2 seed and 0-1 as a #11 it looks more like what you would expect.  Ie, the first round loss as a #2 seed sucked but the first round win as a #11 seed was nice and they somewhat cancel out so who cares.  

That first round loss as a #2 seed would/will be a lot easier of a pill to swallow if his #5 seed in 2018 or his #11 seed in 2019 or his #8/9 seed this year had made/makes it to the S16.  

That, however, is what we have NOT seen.  We haven't seen a Holtmann team win the B1G or make it to the second weekend of the NCAA.  I'm not asking for that EVERY year but we are talking about a guy who has now had five attempts (granted only three wrt the NCAA since 2020 was cancelled and 2022 hasn't happened yet).  

My view, and Ohio State's historical averages back this up, is that it is NOT unreasonable for the AD at Ohio State to expect better.  We need to see league titles and/or S16 appearances and if those continually fail to materialize for whatever reason then a change needs to be made.  

I'm not exactly advocating for a change to be made RIGHT NOW, but Holtmann's seat should be warm.  You can't collect MILLIONS of dollars a year to coach at a program with Ohio State's resources, never win a league title, never get out of the first weekend of the NCAA, and expect to keep your job indefinitely.  

[ELA]

I think Iowa is on another level right now, and Id be a little surprised if they don't win the BTT, but I don't think I'd ever be happier than MSU doesn't hang BTT banners than for this year, if they pull it out.

For all of Izzos accomplishments, he's never won a random BTT.  But thinking bout it has anyone?  Seems like we've never had a team like Oregon State or Georgetown last year, or Georgia a decade ago, to pull out a BTT win when they needed it to get in.  Illinois made it to the title game as the last place team in one of the first years, but who is the worst team to actually win it?  The plane crash Michigan team?

[MaximumSam]

This is just silly.  If you are not judging your coach by the performance of his teams on the court then there is nothing to judge him by.  

Well, we are both judging the program by performance. I'm saying it's better to look at the FancyStats and you are saying look at the results. Which I get, the results are what we want. I'm just saying when you have a coach getting good players and consistently putting out good teams, which Holtmann is, you give him the benefit of the doubt and don't run him off based on the results of a handful of games each season, which is what we are talking about with the tourney and the few games out of first place.


The other thing is the B1G is ridiculously good and deep right now. It was easily its weakest year his first season, which is probably a lot more reason why that was his best finish in conference as opposed to Matta's guys. It certainly wasn't his best team.

In any event, feels like just repeating ourselves. Going forward, I would be interested to see how the team improves. The defense has sucked the last two years. Jamari Wheeler was supposed to be a defensive whiz. His offense has improved, but he hasn't been particularly effective defensively. It is weird that his teams were pretty good defensively his first three seasons and then fell in a hole. I don't really know what that is about and if it doesn't improve, I'll be there with you. He also needs to finally hit on a point guard. The parade of experienced but average guards won't cut it. Of course, D.J. Carton had a mental breakdown, then fled to Siberia, er, Marquette, and is now floating around the G League. Basketball is a fickle sport.

[MaximumSam]

I think Iowa is on another level right now, and Id be a little surprised if they don't win the BTT, but I don't think I'd ever be happier than MSU doesn't hang BTT banners than for this year, if they pull it out.

For all of Izzos accomplishments, he's never won a random BTT.  But thinking bout it has anyone?  Seems like we've never had a team like Oregon State or Georgetown last year, or Georgia a decade ago, to pull out a BTT win when they needed it to get in.  Illinois made it to the title game as the last place team in one of the first years, but who is the worst team to actually win it?  The plane crash Michigan team?

Iowa looks really good. Some peak Fran.

Yeah I recall that Michigan team, can't really recall other teams that made a desperate run. We could possibly get a Indiana-MSU desperate hours special. Though MSU is definitely in, right? I haven't followed the bracketology a lot - do people think Rutgers is in?