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Topic: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1456 on: March 10, 2022, 11:34:37 AM »
Not at all.  I had just speculated earlier if beating Maryland and Wisconsin would be enough to get them up to a 6.  Based on that, even beating Maryland, Wisconsin AND Purdue likely wouldn't.
Ok, I was just curious. 

Still, your chances of making the S16 are dramatically better as a #7 than as a #8/9:
  • 29.86% of #6 seeds have made the S16, 43 out of 144
  • 19.44% of #7 seeds have made the S16, 28 out of 144
  • 9.72% of #8 seeds have made the S16, 14 out of 144
  • 4.86% of #9 seeds have made the S16, 7 out of 144
  • 15.97% of #10 seeds have made the S16, 23 out of 144
  • 16.67% of #11 seeds have made the S16, 24 out of 144
  • 15.28% of #12 seeds have made the S16, 22 out of 144

Above #6 it continues to climb while below #12 it plummets to just 4.17% of #13 seeds, 1.39% of #14's and #15's and no #16's.  My point being that 8/9 have the least chance of making the S16 other than the #13's and below so you REALLY want to avoid those lines. 

It really shows up on this graph.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1457 on: March 10, 2022, 12:00:08 PM »
Yeah, the 8/9 line problem is just like the 4/5 line, but worse, in two ways...


  • Only once in history has an 8/9 seed avoided a 1 seed in the R32. So you're always getting one of the top teams in the tournament as your R32 opponent. 
  • The 8/9 team is a FAR worse team than a 4/5. So while a 4/5 is going to have trouble advancing past a 1 in the S16 because they're frankly just not as good, an 8/9 is going to be even more overmatched in the R32 game. 

The 7 (or 10) seed may face the #2 in the R32 quite often, but if what we've said previously is true, that the gap between 1/2 is bigger than the gap between 2/3, then a 7 seed is probably significantly less overmatched by the 2 than the 8/9 by the 1. 


MarqHusker

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1458 on: March 10, 2022, 01:06:27 PM »
Witness to big ten refs in Person.
.. wow.

SuperMario

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1459 on: March 10, 2022, 01:46:18 PM »
Michigan does not deserve to make the tournament. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1460 on: March 10, 2022, 01:47:41 PM »
Dammit... I wanted to root against Michigan due to the whole Juwan Morgan crap. So I'm happy to see Michigan lose...

...but sadly that means that Indiana won. Nobody needed to see that. 

MaximumSam

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1461 on: March 10, 2022, 01:55:37 PM »
Man what happened? I was going to turn it on, saw it was a Michigan blowout, so I didn't. Welp

ELA

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1462 on: March 10, 2022, 02:06:58 PM »
If the committee considers injuries, should they consider the fact that Phil Martelli will not be coaching Michigan in deciding whether or not they are in?

Nobody had them in the tournament, Phil coached them back into it, first game back for Howard, they blow a 17-point lead.  Still think it was a massive mistake by Michigan to not take advantage of a chance to get out from Howard without paying him a dime

Abba

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1463 on: March 10, 2022, 02:11:40 PM »
I never thought Ohio State could get Urban Meyer, so never say never, but if somehow the Buckeyes could get Beilein, that would be that level of excitement for a hire.  Yes, I realize there is still a coach here.

ELA

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1464 on: March 10, 2022, 02:47:20 PM »
I never thought Ohio State could get Urban Meyer, so never say never, but if somehow the Buckeyes could get Beilein, that would be that level of excitement for a hire.  Yes, I realize there is still a coach here.
If OSU had a coaching issue, I agree.  But I would run Holtzman off to bring in a guy that turns 70 next year.

That said, I'm sad Beilein was in his late 50s by the time he got somewhere he could win big.  If he was coaching in the P5 in the 80s like Pitino or K; or even as long as Izzo, I think he would absolutely be in the best of all time discussion.  Absolute offensive wiz, and modest enough to realize his teams had a hard ceiling unless they played defense, and he went out and got the best defensive mind he could find.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1465 on: March 10, 2022, 03:03:53 PM »
If OSU had a coaching issue, I agree.  But I would run Holtzman off to bring in a guy that turns 70 next year.

That said, I'm sad Beilein was in his late 50s by the time he got somewhere he could win big.  If he was coaching in the P5 in the 80s like Pitino or K; or even as long as Izzo, I think he would absolutely be in the best of all time discussion.  Absolute offensive wiz, and modest enough to realize his teams had a hard ceiling unless they played defense, and he went out and got the best defensive mind he could find.
This was my reservation as well.  If Beilein was a decade or two younger I would absolutely make that trade.  As is . . . not sure.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1466 on: March 10, 2022, 03:08:40 PM »
Wow!
Iowa is NOT leaving and doubts.  It is halftime and they already have about as many points as Michigan and Indiana each scored in their entire game earlier.  

ELA

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1467 on: March 10, 2022, 03:23:52 PM »
Wow!
Iowa is NOT leaving and doubts.  It is halftime and they already have about as many points as Michigan and Indiana each scored in their entire game earlier. 
They were at 1.85 ppp late in the first half.  That's insane

MarqHusker

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1468 on: March 10, 2022, 04:03:36 PM »
So who and why is this #1 on Michigan so hated?  I did see his douchy 3pt taunt and getting Td up for demanding an 'and 1' call.  Is he known for other stuff?  He seemed to get booed more than Juwan at the game today.

Keep in mind I haven't watched much of college hoops all year.


medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1469 on: March 10, 2022, 04:11:05 PM »
Northwestern scored two more points than Indiana and seven more points than Michigan today but unfortunately for the Wildcats they were not playing the Hoosiers or the Wolverines and they got outscored by 36 points.  

I'm pretty sure Wisconsin once won a BTT game while only scoring about 36 points.  

 

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