2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[ELA]

MSU got a combined 8 points against Iowa from their 5 man* senior class

Bingham - 8
Brown - 0
Henry - NBA
Loyer - transferred to Davidson
Kithier - transferred to Valparaiso

[bayareabadger]

Any road win is a good win.

@Rutgers is gonna be a tough one this weekend.

Trying to decide how “must win” it is. 

If they are to finish 2-1, you’d rather beat Purdue. But banking that one early would be nice. 

Then again, if they could just win the next two, would take that. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Welp, Wisconsin burped up a lease 8-point lead, lost Johnny Davis in a tie game for the final 2-plus minutes. Went ahead and won anyway.

UW functionally clinches a top-4 seed. Not too bad.

Wisconsin's win moves them up to 13-4, tied with Purdue for first place.  The Badgers and Boilermakers play each other so the winner can do no worse than 14-6.  That combined with Rutgers' loss at Michigan last night and Michigan State's loss at Iowa means that there are now only four teams left mathematically in the league title race:

• 13-4 Purdue, @MSU, @UW, vsIU:  The Boilermakers control their own destiny to a league title.  Winning out would take out the Badgers and beat anything the Buckeyes could do and PU would win a tie with IL.  
• 13-4 Wisconsin, @RU, vsPU, vsUNL:  The Badgers control their own destiny to a share of the league title but they need an IL loss to be THE league Champion as opposed to a league Champion.  Winning out would take out PU and beat anything the Buckeyes could do but the Badgers lose a tie with IL.  
• 12-4 Illinois, vstOSU, @M, vsPSU, vsIA:  The Illini control their own destiny to a share of the league title but they need a PU loss to be THE league Champion as opposed to a league Champion.  Winning gets them to no worse than a tie with the UW/PU winner but the Illini would lose a tie with PU.  
• 10-5 Ohio State, @IL, @UMD, vsUNL, vsMSU, vsM:  The Buckeyes would need a loss by the PU/UW winner to get a share of the league title.  Winning out would take out Illinois and the PU/UW loser will have five losses but the Buckeyes would still need a loss by the PU/UW winner.  As far as ties, the Buckeyes would win a tie with IL and lose a tie with PU.  A tie with UW is more complicated since the Buckeyes and Badgers split so it would be determined based on record against the next best team.  

All other teams have at least seven losses so they can't win even a share of the league title.  

The IL/tOSU game tonight will most likely be Ohio State's exit from practical contention for the league title.  Mathematically the Buckeyes could lose and still win at least a share of the league title but they'd be two games back in the loss column with three games to go for the teams ahead of them so they would need all three to go no better than 1-2 in their last three games.  Mathematically possible, effectively not going to happen.  Thus, an Illinois win moves the Illini into a three-way tie for first and drops the Buckeyes out of the race.  

An Ohio State upset in Champaign would put a severe dent in Illinois' title chances while keeping Ohio State's title chances alive (albeit on life support).  After an Ohio State win both the Illini (12-5) and the Buckeyes (11-5) would be just one game back in the loss column behind PU/UW with a guarantee that one of the two will lose on Monday when they play each other.  Purdue and Wisconsin are both on the road this weekend at Rutgers and Michigan State respectively.  If one of them loses this weekend then beats the other on Monday that would open things up for a potential 5-loss champion but otherwise the chances are slim since the Badgers and Boilermakers finish their seasons with relatively tame home games (UNL and IU).  There is almost zero chance of the Cornhuskers going into Madison and winning and while the IU/PU game is a rivalry and the Hoosiers DID win the first meeting, that was in Bloomington.  I have a hard time seeing an Indiana team currently on a 5-game losing streak suddenly finding themselves and winning in W. Lafayette.  

As @bayareabadger stated, Purdue and Wisconsin have effectively wrapped up top-4 seeds.  Each of their worst-case-scenario is 13-7 which could be no worse than tied for fourth behind the other one, Illinois, and Ohio State.  In theory they could be tied with Rutgers, the Iowa/M winner, and the MSU/M winner.  While this is mathematically possible the chances are less than remote since it would require them to lose out and these other teams to win out and they still might win the tie and get a top-4 seed anyway.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Top four seeds:
As stated above first by @bayareabadger and then reiterated by me, Purdue and Wisconsin have effectively clinched.  

Illinois will effectively clinch with a win over Ohio State tonight.  If not . . . hold on.  

Ohio State at 10-5 is two games ahead in the loss column of:

• 10-7 Rutgers, vsUW, @IU, vsPSU
• 9-7 Iowa, vsNU, @M, @IL
• 9-7 Michigan State, vsPU, @M, @tOSU, vsUMD
• 9-7 Michigan, vsIL, vsMSU, vsIA, @tOSU

The problem for the Buckeyes is that they would lose almost any tie:

• The Buckeyes are 0-1 against Rutgers (lost there) and do not play again
• The Buckeyes are 0-1 against Iowa (lost at home) and do not play again
• The Buckeyes are 0-0 against Michigan State but in order for MSU to tie tOSU they would almost certainly have to beat tOSU thus also gaining the tiebreaker.  
• The Buckeyes are 1-0 against Michigan but in order for M to tie tOSU they would almost certainly have to beat tOSU thus tying up that tiebreaker.  

The only tie in there that Ohio State could possibly win would be a two-team tie with the Wolverines and even that is no guarantee.  It would come down to record against the best team(s) in the league which would be PU, UW, and IL in an order TBD.  For those:

• tOSU is 0-1 against PU, M is 1-1.  
• tOSU is 1-1 against UW, M is 0-1.  
• tOSU is 0-0 against IL, M is 0-1 and both teams play IL again.  

In order for Ohio State and Michigan to end up tied the Illini would likely have to beat tOSU and lose to M so that tiebreaker wouldn't work for tOSU either.  


It isn't likely that any specific one of the 7-loss teams will win out but I also think it isn't all that unlikely that one of them will.  Ohio State doesn't have much margin for error to hang on to a top-4 seed.  

[bayareabadger]

Wisconsin‘s effective clinch is even more clear when you consider it closes the season with Nebraska at home

[medinabuckeye1]

Wisconsin‘s effective clinch is even more clear when you consider it closes the season with Nebraska at home

True but I've already assumed one win for either PU or UW and it isn't all that unlikely that Wisconsin could lose at Rutgers then lose to Purdue in which case they'd finish 14-6 with a win over Nebraska and 14-6 was already my floor because the PU/UW winner can do no worse mathematically.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Yeah, I get the idea of effective clinch... But think about this...

Only one of PU and UW has clinched--we just don't know which one yet. Worst case for the winner is 14-6.

The loser of that game could finish 13-7. 

Illinois is currently 12-4 and could conceivably finish as low as 12-8. However, let's assume that they lose to tOSU, M, and IA, the three teams currently sitting at 7 losses, and beat PSU who is a non-factor. Then they're at 13-7. 

That would give tOSU a win over Illinois, but two more losses (they have 5 games remaining, let's say they lose to MSU and M who are the remaining 7-loss teams). They're at 13-7. 

Rutgers can win out without affecting any remaining 7-loss teams. So they can get to 13-7 with a home win over UW, and then wins over teams below them in the standings. 

Iowa and MSU can conceivably both finish at 13-7 because they don't play each other. Michigan can finish 13-7 but only if they beat BOTH IA and MSU, meaning M at 13-7 would knock both teams out of 13-7 contention. 

So you could conceivably have one B1G team with the sole title at 14-6 or better, and then a six-way logjam at second:

• UW/Purdue loser 
• Illinois
• tOSU 
• Rutgers 
• Iowa
• MSU

You could also have a 5-way logjam, just dropping both Iowa and MSU and replacing them with M. 


This scenario isn't likely, of course... 

[847badgerfan]

UW not bad this year. Predicted to finish 10th in the conference.

FIRE GARD!!!

[Abba]

UW not bad this year. Predicted to finish 10th in the conference.

FIRE GARD!!!

And hire Tucker! 

[bayareabadger]

True but I've already assumed one win for either PU or UW and it isn't all that unlikely that Wisconsin could lose at Rutgers then lose to Purdue in which case they'd finish 14-6 with a win over Nebraska and 14-6 was already my floor because the PU/UW winner can do no worse mathematically. 

I was looking at the 13-7 part. M'bad there. 

[ELA]

Wisconsin is also 8-0 in Big Ten games and 13-1 overall in games decided by 6 points or less.

Which is why the predictive metrics don't really line up with their record.  KenPom's luck rating, whatever that is, has them #6 in the nation, which is the highest of any team in his top 40

[847badgerfan]

Better to win games by 6 points than to lose games by 6 points.

I hope they win all of the rest of their games by less than 6 points. 

I'll be happy, and I'll also lose weight because I'll be at target heart rate a lot.

[bayareabadger]

Wisconsin is also 8-0 in Big Ten games and 13-1 overall in games decided by 6 points or less.

Which is why the predictive metrics don't really line up with their record.  KenPom's luck rating, whatever that is, has them #6 in the nation, which is the highest of any team in his top 40

Yep. That “luck” is just the difference between how a team with that statistical profile against that schedule wild do, on average, and how they actually did.

That success in close games tends to not be predictive (ie, teams that win a lot of close games don’t tend to win close games at a high mark going forward overall), but if UW wants to keep doing it, I’ll take it

[bayareabadger]

Better to win games by 6 points than to lose games by 6 points.

I hope they win all of the rest of their games by less than 6 points.

I'll be happy, and I'll also lose weight because I'll be at target heart rate a lot.

Badge. Don’t do that to me. Let’s get some nice easy ones where we get to see how Gilmore and Ilver are coming along.