Games played/remaining:
- 17 down, 3 to go: PU, NU
- 16 down, 4 to go: UW, IL, RU, IA, MSU, IU, PSU, UMD, MN, UNL
- 15 down, 5 to go: tOSU, M
Michigan plays tonight and again on Sunday so entering next week they'll be at 17/3 and they play MSU on Monday.
Ohio State plays tomorrow night and again on Sunday so entering next week they'll be at 17/3 and they play UNL on Monday.
The game tonight between Rutgers and Michigan is big for NCAA purposes because both teams are on or close to the bubble depending on who you ask.
For Rutgers a win would be yet another tier-1 win for the Scarlett Knights but actually a loss might ALSO give Rutgers another Q1 win because Michigan is at #33 in the NET rankings and Rutgers already beat them in Piscataway. If they lose in Ann Arbor that loss might move Michigan up into the top-30 which would elevate Rutgers' earlier win to Q1. A loss wouldn't hurt too badly because a road loss to #33 is easily Q1. Rutgers' remaining schedule is @M, vsUW, @IU, vsPSU and they are currently 16-10/10-6. I think they need to go at least 2-2 and vsPSU is the only one you can feel very confident about so a win here helps a lot. A loss isn't fatal but it reduces their margin for error.
For Michigan the biggest problem is that their total number of losses is approaching a point where it gets hard to get an at-large bid. They are 14-11/8-7 so they don't have a lot of losses to give. Their remaining schedule is vsRU, vsIL, vsMSU, vsIA, @tOSU. All except this one are Q1 but Michigan probably needs to go 3-2 to feel even remotely comfortable heading into the BTT. Having four home games certainly helps but none of Michigan's remaining opponents are easy. By net ranking Michigan's remaining opponents are:
- #14 IL at home
- #18 IA at home
- #19 tOSU on the road
- #35 MSU at home
- #80 RU at home
At least in theory this is Michigan's easiest remaining game so while losing wouldn't be fatal it would be problematic because it would necessitate winning probably three of their other remaining four.
