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Topic: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

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bayareabadger

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #896 on: February 10, 2022, 09:57:55 PM »
I don't know.

UW's losses are to Providence, @OSU, MSU and @IL.

All are ranked teams in both polls. Providence #11 in AP. OSU 16, MSU 17, IL 13.

NET #25, #18, #27 and #12, respectively.

Then you look at win quality. I don't get it.
This is a good point, and the reason that it doesn't track with win quality is because it's a tool that's not designed to measure that primarily. If anything, it's mostly there to track the quality of each win for assessing a resume, i.e. it's to give us that second batch of numbers. 

These rankings ar basically designed to pop out a score that roughly equates to strength and how hard a team will be to play. In basketball, the main metric at its base is blending scoring and schedule. Winning big and losing close is better than losing big and winning close. Doing those things better against a better schedule is better, obviously. 

I think this UW-Iowa quirk is more about UW than Iowa. Iowa is maybe a bit above where you'd expect their record to be because they've been relatively competitive in losses and dominant in wins against a pretty good schedule. UW has faced a better schedule, but is more often playing like a team worse than it's record (not being in it late in three of those losses, getting pushed by PSU at home, Minnesota at home, a Southland conference team). So that's dragging UW down. It's also worth noting that with any ranking of teams, there will be some oddities, and this just happens to be one on front street. 

It's important to note these are less "rankings" in the sense that it's saying UW is definitively behind Iowa and more just stacking numbers. So they might be 0.1 points apart, which is functionally nothing. And ideally it doesn't matter because there's only really a few situations where a team's own NET should impact its tournament placement, and UW is far from those. 

(There often is a complaint about this that some teams are just better at winning close games, but for the most part, barring the rare exception, previous close game success is not a predictor of future close game success)

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #897 on: February 11, 2022, 12:25:35 AM »
I think it is time to move Michigan up to tier-2 from tier-3.  The difference is projected result in home games against tier-1 teams and for Michigan those are:

  • vs UW, not scheduled
  • vs PU, won on 2/10 (and it wasn't close)
  • vs tOSU this weekend
  • vs IL, 2/27
  • vs MSU, 3/1

So they are 1-0 with three more to play.  The thing is though that they also have two additional positive upsets:
  • A win at PSU this week, and
  • A blowout win at Indiana
They do have an upset home loss to Minnesota but note that the upset loss was way back in December while all three upset wins have come in the last three weeks.  Ie, I think Michigan is getting better.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #898 on: February 11, 2022, 12:40:26 AM »
New tiers:

  • UW+1 (+2,-1), IL even(+2,-2), PU+1 (+2,-1), tOSU, MSU-1 (+1,-2)
  • M+1 (+2,-1), IA even (+2,-2), RU even (+1,-1), IU-1 (+1,-2)
  • NU even(+2,-2), PSU even(+1,-1), UMD-1 (+3,-4), MN-1 (+1,-2)
  • blank
  • UNL+1
The upsets so far have been:

The "postponed" games that have not, to my knowledge, been rescheduled are:


The updated projected final standings/BTT seeds are:
  • 15-5/24-6 Wisconsin
  • 14-6/25-6 Purdue (wins tie with IL based on H2H, won in Champaign)
  • 14-6/22-9 Illinois
  • 13-6/20-8 Ohio State
  • 13-7/22-9 Michigan State
  • 12-8/18-12 Michigan
  • 11-8/21-9 Iowa
  • 11-9/17-13 Rutgers
  • 10-10/19-11 Indiana
  • 7-13/14-15 Northwestern
  • 6-13/11-16 Penn State
  • 6-14/14-17 Maryland
  • 5-14/14-14 Minnesota
  • 1-19/7-24 Nebraska

Thus, the match-ups at the BTT in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
  • #11 Penn State vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
  • #12 Maryland vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
  • #5 Michigan State vs UMD/MN, 230 BTN
  • #6 Michigan vs PSU/UNL, 9 BTN
  • #7 Iowa vs #10 Northwestern, 630 BTN
  • #8 Rutgers vs #9 Indiana, noon BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
  • #1 Wisconsin vs RU/IU, noon BTN
  • #2 Purdue vs IA/NU, 630 BTN
  • #3 Illinois vs M/PSU/UNL, 9 BTN
  • #4 Ohio State vs MSU/UMD/MN, 230 BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
  • UW/RU/IU vs tOSU/MSU/UMD/MN, 1 CBS
  • PU/IA/NU vs IL/M/PSU/UNL, 330 CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
  • UW/RU/IU/tOSU/MSU/UMD/MN vs PU/IA/NU/IL/M/PSU/UNL, 330 CBS


medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #899 on: February 11, 2022, 12:51:24 AM »
We have a busy weekend coming up with all 14 teams in action but five of the seven games involve teams in the top-half of the league hosting teams in the bottom half of the league.  The two exceptions are the Michigan/Ohio State game in Ann Arbor and the PSU/MN game in Minneapolis.  

Minnesota is coming off of an embarrassing loss to Nebraska so I expect them to come out mad and probably drill PSU but you never know.  

Both tOSU and M project to finish in the top-half of the league.  Michigan is coming off of a HUGE win over Purdue while tOSU is coming off of a heartbreaking win that got away at Rutgers so I'm not sure who that favors.  Things are so close that the unexpected outcome would change a lot:

Ohio State:
If the Buckeyes win their projection improves to 14-5 and alone in second place from 13-6 and alone in fourth place.  

Michigan:
If the Wolverines lose their projection drops to 11-9 and tied for 7th/8th with Rutgers from 12-8 and alone in sixth place.  

The rest of the games frankly shouldn't be terribly exciting.  Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, and Iowa should easily win home games against Rutgers, Northwestern, Maryland, Indiana, and Nebraska respectively.  

847badgerfan

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #900 on: February 11, 2022, 07:30:47 AM »
Yeah, I'd say it's time to move M up.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #901 on: February 11, 2022, 11:21:11 AM »
Yeah, I'd say it's time to move M up.
This makes their home game against my Buckeyes tomorrow a projected win but I'm still hopeful for my team and will not advocate moving Michigan back down even if Ohio State wins for a number of reasons including:
  • Upsets happen, and
  • It wouldn't be altogether shocking for Michigan to suffer a bit of a hangover effect coming off of their BIG win over projected #1 seed Purdue, and
  • The game on Saturday will be Michigan's third game in five days (@PSU on 2/8, vsPU on 2/10, vstOSU on 2/12) and that can impact performance against a more rested foe.  



medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #902 on: February 11, 2022, 11:58:05 AM »
If the Buckeyes and Boilermakers win this week that all but eliminates the Scarlet Knights, Wolverines, Hoosiers, and Hawkeyes from any chance at a top-4 seed (and Thursday bye).  At that point RU and M would have two more losses than #5 MSU and three more losses than the league leaders and that is too big of a hill to climb with only 6-9 games left.  Conversely, if the Scarlet Knights and Wolverines both win then we'd have three four-loss teams (MSU, PU, tOSU) and two five-loss teams (RU, M) all in contention with each other. 
Earlier this week I noted (see above) that if tOSU (@RU) and PU (@M) won it would open a significant gap between the top-5 and the bottom nine in the league.  The Buckeyes and Boilermakers both lost so now it appears that instead the big gap is between the top-9 and the bottom five.  Currently we have:
  • Two 3-loss teams (UW, IL)
  • Three 4-loss teams (PU, MSU, tOSU)
  • Two 5-loss teams (RU, M)
  • Two 6-loss teams (IU, IA)
  • Then a big gap, then
  • Two 8-loss teams (NU, PSU)
  • Two 10-loss teams (UMD, MN)
  • 12-loss 1-12 Nebraska
So it appears that the big gap is between the top-9 (the teams with six or less losses) and the bottom five.  In my opinion the top-9 each have at least a plausible path to the Tournament while the bottom five would need miracles.  

With their win over Purdue the Wolverines have to be at least on the bubble and Rutgers has plenty of quality wins they just have some disturbingly bad early OOC losses that are holding them back.  Both of them could make it and the other seven would be in if the Tournament started today.  Thus, as I see it we have:
  • Seven teams that are either already locks or clearly "should be in".  Ie, they'll make it as long as they keep pace.  UW, IL, PU, MSU, tOSU, IU, IA
  • Two teams that are on or reasonably close to the bubble:  M, RU
  • Five teams that need a miracle (probably in the form of winning the BTT):  NU, PSU, UMD, MN, UNL


bayareabadger

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #903 on: February 11, 2022, 06:05:20 PM »
The nerd's math says UW should be comfortable in a win vs. Rutgers.

Logical brain says it'll be find, but those last two Knights games got me a tad nervous. 

ELA

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #904 on: February 11, 2022, 06:37:09 PM »
My son refuses to stop being an OSU fan, so as the last part of his Christmas gift we are headed to Columbus next weekend to go to the OSU-IU game, and then go to the Legoland

MaximumSam

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #905 on: February 11, 2022, 06:42:07 PM »
My son refuses to stop being an OSU fan, so as the last part of his Christmas gift we are headed to Columbus next weekend to go to the OSU-IU game, and then go to the Legoland
That's a good lad

bayareabadger

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #906 on: February 11, 2022, 07:00:57 PM »
My son refuses to stop being an OSU fan, so as the last part of his Christmas gift we are headed to Columbus next weekend to go to the OSU-IU game, and then go to the Legoland
The love of family that prevents you from smothering him is a biological wonder.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #907 on: February 11, 2022, 07:22:49 PM »
My son refuses to stop being an OSU fan, so as the last part of his Christmas gift we are headed to Columbus next weekend to go to the OSU-IU game, and then go to the Legoland
Enjoy the Schott. 

It and the RAC are the only B1G arenas I've seen BB games in so I imagine you'll have a better basis of comparison than me.

ELA

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #908 on: February 11, 2022, 07:27:57 PM »
Enjoy the Schott.

It and the RAC are the only B1G arenas I've seen BB games in so I imagine you'll have a better basis of comparison than me.
This will be my 6th (UM, MSU, IU, PU, PSU)

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #909 on: February 12, 2022, 10:19:53 AM »
This will be my 6th (UM, MSU, IU, PU, PSU)
Nice!

Maybe someday I'll catch all the B1G arenas. I think if I do it will be for any game rather than specifically a tOSU game.

 

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