2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[medinabuckeye1]

That's impressive! 

Sorry, typo.  Fixed.  

[medinabuckeye1]

The programs wiki page has conference wins by team. I looked up OSU and IU after I read the Purdue milestone.

From Memory:
OSU has 840
IU has 973

EDIT: wiki has Illinois at 973 also.

Per wiki, B1G Basketball started in 1906 (Minnesota won at 6-1).  It notes that IU did not compete in BB in 1907 or 1908 (why?).  

Ohio State joined in 1913 so part of tOSU's win deficit relative to PU, IU, and IL is the up to seven less seasons but that doesn't explain it all because tOSU is 133 behind IU/IL and 160 behind PU.  

Ohio State Basketball is highly inconsistent unlike football where the Buckeyes are pretty clearly the most consistently good team in the country.  

B1G BB programs:

That last table is league titles, 1951-2021 to make it a fair comparison for MSU.  

Some things that stand out:

• Indiana has been REALLY good at converting F4's to NC's.  They "only" have eight F4's which is behind MSU and tOSU (10 each) and barely ahead of M (6) but they have more NC's than MSU (2), tOSU (1), and M (1) combined.  
• Michigan has been REALLY good at converting NCAA appearances into S16's.  They are tied for 7th/8th in the league with "only" 27 NCAA appearances but they are third in the league in S16's with 16.  
• Ohio State has been REALLY good at converting NCAA appearances and particularly S16's into F4's.  The Buckeyes are 5th in the league with "only" 30 NCAA appearances but fully one-third of those have resulted in a F4 appearance.  Moreover, 10 of tOSU's 14 S16 appearances have resulted in a F4.  
• Purdue . . .  What can you say about Purdue . . .  They are REALLY good in the regular season with the most league titles and the first team to reach 1,000 league wins.  They are also third in NCAA appearances with 32 but sixth in the league with only 12 S16's and tied for 8th/9th with only two F4's.  They also have no NC's which is odd for a team with such a strong regular season performance history.  They are obviously very consistent because you don't get to 1,000 wins on 24 league titles and a bunch of crap but their ceiling has been lower than a slew of teams that aren't nearly as good consistently.  

[ELA]

Going to try to post an updated NCAA and NIT Bracketology each week, simply 2/3 SOR, and 1/3 KenPom.  Things should come into focus more as we go on.  Still have some outliers.

For auto-bid purposes, I'm assuming whoever is in first gets the autobid, but that the highest ranked KenPom team wins the tournament

February 6 update

NCAA
SOUTH

• #1 Auburn vs. #16 Gardner Webb/Colgate
• #8 Connecticut vs. #9 INDIANA
• #5 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #12 UAB
• #4 UCLA vs. #13 Wagner
• #3 Houston vs. #14 Furman
• #6 Murray State vs. #11 Notre Dame
• #7 Wyoming vs. #10 San Francisco
• #2 Baylor vs. #15 Liberty

MIDWEST

• #1 Kansas vs. #16 Texas Southern/Nicholls State
• #8 Loyola(Chi) vs. #9 IOWA
• #5 Marquette vs. #12 Saint Louis
• #4 WISCONSIN vs. #13 South Dakota State
• #3 Tennessee vs. #14 Toledo
• #6 Iowa State vs. #11 Colorado State
• #7 Saint Mary's vs. #10 Seton Hall
• #2 Duke vs. #15 Montana State

EAST

• #1 PURDUE vs. #16 Norfolk State
• #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Davidson
• #5 OHIO STATE vs. #12 Florida/Ohio
• #4 Providence vs. #13 Vermont
• #3 Villanova vs. #14 Towson
• #6 Texas vs. #11 Iona
• #7 Wake Forest vs. #10 TCU
• #2 Kentucky vs. #15 Princeton

WEST

• #1 Arizona vs. #16 South Alabama
• #8 Xavier vs. #9 North Carolina
• #5 LSU vs. #12 BYU/Miami
• #4 ILLINOIS vs. #13 NM State
• #3 Texas Tech vs. #14 Oakland
• #6 Alabama vs. #11 Belmont
• #7 USC vs. #10 Boise State
• #2 Gonzaga vs. #15 UC Irvine

NIT
MORGANTOWN

• #1 West Virginia vs. #8 UNC Wilmington
• #4 Dayton vs. #5 Virginia Tech
• #3 Creighton vs. #6 Fresno State
• #2 MICHIGAN vs. #7 Cleveland State

DENTON

• #1 North Texas vs. #8 New Orleans
• #4 Dayton vs. #5 Texas A&M
• #3 SMU vs. #6 PENN STATE
• #2 Oklahoma vs. #7 Arkansas State

EUGENE

• #1 Oregon vs. #8 Yale
• #4 Oklahoma State vs. #5 MINNESOTA
• #3 Stanford vs. #6 South Carolina

• #2 San Diego State vs. #7 CS Fullerton

STARKVILLE

• #1 Mississippi State vs. #8 Southern
• #4 VCU vs. #5 Florida State
• #3 Kansas State vs. #6 Cincinnati
• #2 Chattanooga vs. #7 Longwood

• Rutgers - #3 team out
• Northwestern - #10 team out
• Maryland - #20 team out
• Nebraska - n/a

[medinabuckeye1]

In Lunardi's latest we still have seven teams in with none on the bubble.  The teams are:

• #1 Purdue
• #3 Illinois
• #4 Wisconsin, Michigan State
• #5 Ohio State
• #7 Indiana, Iowa

Based on historic performance by those seeds since the expansion to 64 those seeds, on average, would result in:

• 5.26 teams in the R32
• 3.03 teams in the S16
• 1.44 teams in the E8
• 0.81 teams in the F4
• 0.41 teams in the NC
• 0.22 NC's

Method:
In opening round games:

• #1 seeds win 99.31% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.9931 teams in the R32.  
• #3 seeds win 84.72% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.8472 teams in the R32, cumulatively 1.8403.  
• #4 seeds win 78.47% of the time, we have two so that makes 1.5694 teams in the R32, cumulatively 3.4097.  
• #5 seeds win 64.58% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.6458 teams in the R32, cumulatively 4.0556 (Ie, one of the top five teams/seeds statistically will lose the opener and it is most likely to be #5 tOSU but not altogether unlikely to be an even higher seed).  
• #7 seeds win 60.42% of the time, we have two so that makes 1.2083 teams in the R32, cumulatively 5.2639.  

To get to the S16:

• #1 seeds make the second weekend 85.42% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.8542 teams in the S16.  
• #3 seeds make the second weekend 52.08% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.5208 teams in the S16, cumulatively 1.3750.  
• #4 seeds make the second weekend 46.53% of the time, we have two so that makes 0.9306 teams in the S16, cumulatively 2.3056.  
• #5 seeds make the second weekend 34.03% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.3403 teams in the S16, cumulatively 2.6458.  
• #7 seeds make the second weekend 19.44% of the time, we have two so that makes 0.3839 teams in the S16, cumulatively 3.0347.  

To get to the E8:

• #1 seeds win a S16 game 69.44% of the time.  We have one so that makes 0.6944 teams in the E8.  
• #3 seeds win a S16 game 25.69% of the time.  We have one so that makes 0.2569 teams in the E8, cumulatively 0.9514.  
• #4 seeds win a S16 game 14.58% of the time.  We have two so that makes 0.2917 teams in the E8, cumulatively 1.2431.  
• #5 seeds win a S16 game 6.25% of the time.  We have one so that makes 0.0625 teams in the E8, cumulatively 1.3056.  
• #7 seeds win a S16 game 6.94% of the time (more often than #5 seeds 10 times vs 9).  We have two so that makes 0.1389 teams in the E8, cumulatively 1.4444.  

To get to the F4:

• #1 seeds make the F4 41.67% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.4167 teams in the F4.  
• #3 seeds make the F4 11.81% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.1181 teams in the F4, cumulatively 0.5347 (ie, roughly a 50/50 chance that either PU or IL makes the F4).  
• #4 seeds make the F4 9.03% of the time, we have two so that makes 0.1806 teams in the F4, cumulatively 0.7153.  
• #5 seeds make the F4 4.86% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.0486 teams in the F4, cumulatively 0.7639.  
• #7 seeds make the F4 2.08% of the time, we have two so that makes 0.0417 teams in the F4, cumulatively 0.8056.  

To get to the NC:

• #1 seeds win a F4 game 25.69% of the time.  We have one so that makes 0.2569 teams in the NC.  
• #3 seeds win a F4 game 7.64% of the time.  We have one so that makes 0.0764 teams in the NC, cumulatively 0.3333 (ie, a one in three chance that either PU or IL makes the NC).  
• #4 seeds win a F4 game 2.08% of the time.  We have two so that makes 0.0417 teams in the NC, cumulatively 0.3750.  
• #5 seeds win a F4 game 2.08% of the time.  We have one so that makes 0.0208 teams in the NC, cumulatively 0.3958.  
• #7 seeds win a F4 game 0.69% of the time.  We have two so that makes 0.0139 teams in the NC, cumulatively 0.4097 (ie, a slightly less than 50/50 chance that one of our teams makes the NC)

To win the NC:

• #1 seeds win the NC 15.97% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.1597 NC's.  
• #3 seeds win the NC 2.78% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.0278 NC's, cumulatively 0.1875.  
• #4 seeds win the NC 0.69% of the time, we have two so that makes 0.0139 NC's, cumulatively 0.2014.  
• #5 seeds have never won an NC.  
• #7 seeds win the NC 0.69% of the time, we have two so that makes 0.0139 NC's, cumulatively 0.2153 NC's.  

[ELA]

Two straight years without a PG leads to some tough offense to watch.

[ELA]

3-4 in their last 7.  4 of those 7 against teams not sniffing the tourney.  Before that was a buzzer beater home win over Minnesota

[bayareabadger]

Stealing from my post on another board: 

This game reminded me of some of the early big wins this year because there is simply no give up in this team. Plenty of good squads see MSU make that push and get overtaken. This team never did. They matched buckets, they eventually made a few plays to pull away. This isn't to say they have that "clutch" magic, but man, they do not back down at all.

And they needed that because woo boy did they do a lot of stuff you can't on the road. Just a litany of shitty offensive outcomes, missed open looks with some bad defensive miscues mixed in. Seven turnovers is great, but man did some look ugly. Not to mention the free throws.

It's also interesting to note that MSU has a ton of talent, but man, they are missing 1-2 motherfuckers. Like, lots of guys can be super on any night, but not a lot of guys are usually super. When your best player is a power wing who specializes in spot up 3s, that's not ideal.

But after that, if UW just avoids any slip ups, it very likely goes into that second-to-last game vs Purdue at home with a chance to either functionally or actually clinch a conference title. 

Also, question for @ELA : Is Houser a good post defender? I was under the impression he was a bad defender, but UW didn't try to punish him inside when he was at center.

[ELA]

I wouldn't say MSU has a ton of talent.  They have a ton of Big Ten caliber players.  They have like 9 guys who would be a good 3rd option.

[bayareabadger]

I wouldn't say MSU has a ton of talent.  They have a ton of Big Ten caliber players.  They have like 9 guys who would be a good 3rd option.

I meant in the sense they have six top-60 recruits and nine top-100 guys. Which means most of those guys have some ceiling to them, even if they're not playing at the top end of that. 

[ELA]

I think it's more that they all have high floors.  None are busts.  But, as I said, none look like good first or second options.

[847badgerfan]

Hardy har har.

[bayareabadger]

Hardy har har.

SHHHHHHH. We want in-state, All-American quality players having their best offers as Iowa/Wisconsin/Minnesota. Keep that s%&( quiet. 

[bayareabadger]

I think it's more that they all have high floors.  None are busts.  But, as I said, none look like good first or second options.

Interesting. In my more limited (and maybe a bit more optimistic) perspective, it seems like the young guards, Bingham and Hall all have moments where you say "Well tip your hat, they just made a play that only one Badger can make." But none actually take the reins and do it consistently.

Two other observations:
1. MSU is becoming an example of why I roll my eyes at "depth" on a basketball team. MSU has a ton of bench guys getting a good bit of work, and that's because they have like two that actually grab their role and just take it. And Christie is one of those guys.
2. The recent Tyson Walker slippage has been notable. When he came over, I was annoyed becuase UW also had a new point on its wish list. But man, after a nice game against the Badgers in Madison, he's been kinda brutal. 

[847badgerfan]

SHHHHHHH. We want in-state, All-American quality players having their best offers as Iowa/Wisconsin/Minnesota. Keep that s%&( quiet.

Yeah... 


Too bad UW can't keep any of the blue chips home.


Like Joey Joe Joe.