2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[ELA]

Purdue is scary good when they are on. Ohio State was absolutely in this game at something like 24-21 then Purdue "clicked", I blinked, and ugh.

Clearly the highest ceiling in the conference, I think by far.  But so frustrating how frequently they play short of it

[ELA]

Oof refs missed a shove in the back on that Purdue rebound. Turns into a Purdue three. Goes from shooting foul shots down six to having the ball down 11.

I mean it's Mackey.  Just expect to get zero calls, and yet still have the Purdue fans boo the two legit calls that go against them

[medinabuckeye1]

One upset over the weekend (IU winning at UMD).  Maryland is easily the most unpredictable team.  There have been 16 upsets so far and they have been involved in six of them:

• The road team won both in the NU/UMD series (that is two upsets)
• The road team won both in the RU/UMD series (that is two, makes four)
• Maryland beat Illinois at home (that makes five)
• Maryland lost at home to Indiana (that makes six)

These are the tiers:

• PU+1 (+2,-1), tOSU, MSU even(+1,-1), IL-1 (+1,-2), UW even(+1,-1)
• RU even(+1,-1), IU even(+1,-1), IA-1 (+1,-2)
• M even(+1,-1), PSU+1, UMD even(+3,-3), NU even(+2,-2), MN even(+1,-1)
• blank
• UNL

These are the upsets so far:


These are the "postponed" games that I currently project will NOT be played.  If you know of any corrections/reschedules please let me know:


Projections in post to follow:

[medinabuckeye1]

Roughly 1/2 way through the season these are the projected final standings/BTT seeds:

• 15-5/26-5 Purdue
• 14-5/21-7 Ohio State (wins tie with MSU based on H2H, no game in E. Lansing)
• 14-5/23-7 Michigan State
• 14-6/22-9 Illinois (wins tie with UW based on H2H, no game in Madison)
• 14-6/23-7 Wisconsin
• 11-9/20-10 Indiana (wins tie with RU based on H2H, no game in Piscataway)
• 11-9/17-13 Rutgers
• 10-10/ 20-11 Iowa
• 7-12/12-15 Penn State (wins tie with M based on H2H, no game in Ann Arbor)
• 7-12/13-16 Michigan
• 7-13/14-15 Northwestern (wins tie with UMD based on record against the 14-5 teams, upset MSU)
• 7-13/15-16 Maryland
• 6-13/15-13 Minnesota
• 0-19/6-24 Nebraska

Thus, the match-ups at the B1G Tournament in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:

• #11 Northwestern vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
• #12 Maryland vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN

Thursday, March 10, 2022:

• #5 Wisconsin vs UMD/MN, 230 BTN
• #6 Indiana vs NU/UNL, 9 BTN
• #7 Rutgers vs #10 Michigan, 630 BTN
• #8 Iowa vs #9 Penn State, noon BTN

Friday, March 11, 2022:

• #1 Purdue vs IA/PSU, noon BTN
• #2 Ohio State vs RU/M, 630 BTN
• #3 Michigan State vs IU/NU/UNL, 9 BTN
• #4 Illinois vs UW/UMD/MN, 230 BTN

Saturday, March 12, 2022:

• PU/IA/PSU vs IL/UW/UMD/MN, 1 CBS
• tOSU/RU/M vs MSU/IU/NU/UNL, 330 CBS

Sunday, March 13, 2022:

• PU/IA/PSU/IL/UW/UMD/MN vs tOSU/RU/M/MSU/IU/NU/UNL, 330 CBS

[medinabuckeye1]

Side note, how I use this and suggest that it be used:

If you look at the top-5 teams in the projection they are only separated by one game.  Thus, I have no confidence whatsoever in the order of the top-5.  However, there is a projected three-game gap between #5 and #6 so I am relatively confident that the projected top-5 will end up as the top-5 with the possible exception of Michigan (which has oodles of talent but just can't seem to consistently play like it) figuring things out and moving into the top group.  

Similarly, the projected #6-#8 seeds are all within one game of each other so I have no confidence whatsoever in the order of those three but they project to be three games behind #5 and 2.5 games ahead of #9 so I am relatively confident that the projected #6-#8 teams will end up as the #6-#8 teams with the same exception as above.  

Similarly, the projected #9-#13 seeds are all within one game of each other so I have no confidence whatsoever in the order of those five but they project to be 2.5 games behind #8 and six games ahead of #14 so I am relatively confident that the projected #9-#13 teams will end up as the #9-#13 teams with the same exception as above.  

Nebraska is the only team whose seed I am fairly confident of.  It would be shocking if they were anything but the #14 seed.  

[ELA]

MSU-UM makeup game set for March 1.

5 day stretch now for MSU of PU, at UM, at OSU

[medinabuckeye1]

MSU-UM makeup game set for March 1.

5 day stretch now for MSU of PU, at UM, at OSU

I can't find this officially, did it necessitate changing anything else?  It looks like it wouldn't.  As of right now:

• MSU hosts PU on Saturday, 2/26
• M hosts IL on Sunday, 2/27
• Both off Monday, 2/28
• Both off Tuesday, 3/1
• Both off on Wednesday, 3/2
• MSU visits tOSU on Thursday, 3/3
• M hosts IA on Thursday, 3/3

I gotta be honest I'm kinda liking the way this is shaping up for Ohio State.  If this holds up the Buckeyes will visit an exhausted M on 2/12 and host an exhausted MSU on 3/3.  

[ELA]

I can't find this officially, did it necessitate changing anything else?  It looks like it wouldn't.  As of right now:

• MSU hosts PU on Saturday, 2/26
• M hosts IL on Sunday, 2/27
• Both off Monday, 2/28
• Both off Tuesday, 3/1
• Both off on Wednesday, 3/2
• MSU visits tOSU on Thursday, 3/3
• M hosts IA on Thursday, 3/3

I gotta be honest I'm kinda liking the way this is shaping up for Ohio State.  If this holds up the Buckeyes will visit an exhausted M on 2/12 and host an exhausted MSU on 3/3.

https://twitter.com/MSU_Basketball/status/1488225636074225664?t=kUzdhoGjLjnIrbb6mNoXSQ&s=19

[bayareabadger]

Some rumbling weather gonna complicate things in Illinois-Wisconsin.

I imagine they will find a way to make it happen, even if they have to ship police teams to the south to do it

[medinabuckeye1]

https://twitter.com/MSU_Basketball/status/1488225636074225664?t=kUzdhoGjLjnIrbb6mNoXSQ&s=19

Thanks, added to projection spreadsheet.  We now project that PU and MSU will tie for the league title at 15-5 with tOSU 1/2 game back at 14-5.  If Ohio State's home game against Nebraska gets rescheduled the Buckeyes would join what would then be a projected three-way tie for first.  

As projected, MSU would win the tie (no game in W. Lafayette) and get the #1 seed with PU and tOSU dropping to #2 and #3 respectively.  All of this is obviously very much up in the air since PU/MSU are projected to only be 1/2 game ahead of tOSU and one game ahead of IL/UW.  

[847badgerfan]

Some rumbling weather gonna complicate things in Illinois-Wisconsin.

I imagine they will find a way to make it happen, even if they have to ship police teams to the south to do it

I think it will be played.

[ELA]

Going to try to post an updated NCAA and NIT Bracketology each week, simply 2/3 SOR, and 1/3 KenPom.  Things should come into focus more as we go on.  Still have some outliers.

For auto-bid purposes, I'm assuming whoever is in first gets the autobid, but that the highest ranked KenPom team wins the tournament

January 31 update (meaning not including last night's results)

SOUTH

• #1 Auburn vs. #16 Texas Southern/Colgate
• #8 INDIANA vs. #9 Miami
• #5 Providence vs. #12 San Francisco/Belmont
• #4 Texas Tech vs. #13 UAB
• #3 Duke vs. #14 Towson
• #6 Connecticut vs. #11 Loyola(Chi)
• #7 Murray State vs. #10 Colorado State
• #2 Gonzaga vs. #15 South Alabama

MIDWEST

• #1 Baylor vs. #16 Yale/Nicholls
• #8 Wake Forest vs. #9 IOWA
• #5 Alabama vs. #12 West Virginia
• #4 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #13 Toledo
• #3 WISCONSIN vs. #14 Oakland
• #6 Xavier vs. #11 Arkansas
• #7 USC vs. #10 BYU
• #2 Kansas vs. #15 Norfolk State

EAST

• #1 PURDUE vs. #16 Longwood
• #8 North Carolina vs. #9 Iona
• #5 Iowa State vs. #12 Seton Hall/Ohio
• #4 LSU vs. #13 Wagner
• #3 Villanova vs. #14 Vermont
• #6 ILLINOIS vs. #11 Oklahoma
• #7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Davidson
• #2 Kentucky vs. #15 Liberty

WEST

• #1 Arizona vs. #16 UC Irvine
• #8 TCU vs. #9 Boise State
• #5 OHIO STATE vs. #12 Notre Dame
• #4 Tennessee vs. #13 South Dakota State
• #3 Houston vs. #14 NM State
• #6 Texas vs. #11 Chattanooga
• #7 Marquette vs. #10 Wyoming
• #2 UCLA vs. #15 Weber State

NIT
RICHMOND

• #1 VCU vs. #8 Southern
• #4 Creighton vs. #5 Cincinnati
• #3 Florida State vs. #6 Jacksonville State
• #2 Mississippi State vs. #7 Princeton

SAN DIEGO

• #1 San Diego State vs. #8 Hawaii
• #4 Saint Louis vs. #5 Furman
• #3 Texas A&M vs. #6 Memphis
• #2 Stanford vs. #7 Seattle

DALLAS

• #1 SMU vs. #8 New Orleans
• #4 MINNESOTA vs. #5 South Carolina
• #3 Oregon vs. #6 Fresno State
• #2 North Texas vs. #7 Navy

GAINESVILLE

• #1 Florida vs. #8 UNC Wilmington
• #4 Oklahoma State vs. #5 Louisiana Tech
• #3 St. Bonaventure vs. #6 Virginia Tech
• #2 MICHIGAN vs. #7 Appalachian State

• Maryland - #7 out of NIT
• Penn State - #9 out of NIT
• Rutgers - #11 out of NIT
• Northwestern - #22 out of NIT
• Nebraska - N/A

[medinabuckeye1]

In Lunardi's latest (updated this morning) the B1G has seven teams in and none on the bubble.  The teams are:

• #1 Purdue
• #3 Michigan State, Wisconsin
• #5 Illinois, Ohio State
• #7 Iowa, Indiana

Based on the historical performance of those seeds since expansion to 64, those seeds on average would result in:

• 5.18 teams in the R32
• 2.97 teams in the S16
• 1.47 teams in the E8
• 0.79 teams in the F4
• 0.47 teams in the NC
• 0.23 NC's

For the last three, Purdue makes up more than half of our chances.  Historical performance of #1 seeds:

• 99.31% win their opener (143-1)
• 85.42% make the S16 (123-20)
• 69.44% make the E8 (100-23)
• 41.67% make the F4 (60-40)
• 25.69% win the semi-final (37-23)
• 15.97% win the NC (23-14)

[medinabuckeye1]

Historical performance of all seeds:

• No #16 has ever won more than one game.  
• No #13 or below has ever won a second-weekend game.  
• No #12 or below has ever made the F4.  
• No #9 or below has ever made the NCG.  
• No #5 and only one each #4, #6, #7, and #8 have won the NC.