2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[847badgerfan]

I'd rather they have to forfeit, honestly.

[MaximumSam]

No Meechie tonight for the Bucks

[Abba]

No Meechie tonight for the Bucks

Young player, but he has probably done more harm than good so far this year.  I'll be patient with him, but for this one game, it's probably better that he's out.

[MaximumSam]

Young player, but he has probably done more harm than good so far this year.  I'll be patient with him, but for this one game, it's probably better that he's out.

Yeah he's been pretty rough. Also helps they have Sotos as another backup PG

[bayareabadger]

I forgot how feisty Wheeler is. 

[MaximumSam]

Buckeyes playing just terribly tonight, maybe the worst performance yet this season. Though as a bit of game theory, I suppose it's good to save your bad performances for the road against good teams. About the only positive I can take.

[bayareabadger]

Buckeyes playing just terribly tonight, maybe the worst performance yet this season. Though as a bit of game theory, I suppose it's good to save your bad performances for the road against good teams. About the only positive I can take.

UW had some real weird crappy moments in there, but lord has OSU played awful. Weird game, UW ran up a lead, has mostly led comfortably, but can't quite hit the Bucks in the head with a shovel to finish it. Also, Johnny Davis is just playing awful. 

Also, Kyle Young is odd to me. He in theory can shoot, but they don't want him to. He's kinda a smaller, mobile 4 who can let Liddell play center. But he just seems kinda there in an uninteresting way.

[MaximumSam]

UW had some real weird crappy moments in there, but lord has OSU played awful. Weird game, UW ran up a lead, has mostly led comfortably, but can't quite hit the Bucks in the head with a shovel to finish it. Also, Johnny Davis is just playing awful.

Also, Kyle Young is odd to me. He in theory can shoot, but they don't want him to. He's kinda a smaller, mobile 4 who can let Liddell play center. But he just seems kinda there in an uninteresting way.

Yeah the game was somewhat competitive solely because Davis played poorly. He puts in an average game and this is a laugher. 

And hey I'm in the Kyle Young fan club. He can generate offense near the basket and shoot threes if he's open. He is coming off an illness though and still getting healthy.

[bayareabadger]

With that UW could lose every game but the ones it's a large-scale favorite in and still go to the dance. 

They've also got five where they project to be favored by 4 or less, four games as underdogs. 

[bayareabadger]

And hey I'm in the Kyle Young fan club. He can generate offense near the basket and shoot threes if he's open. He is coming off an illness though and still getting healthy.

I'm not saying he's bad. I guess I'm saying he looks like he should be doing more. 

But I'm also a UW fan, so squat power forwards who are efficent but don't do that much are usually a favorite of mine. 

[betarhoalphadelta]

.

But I'm also a UW fan, so squat power forwards who are efficent but don't do that much are usually a favorite of mine.

Which means you either love Mason Gillis, or you hate him because he's not on your team 

[bayareabadger]

Which means you either love Mason Gillis, or you hate him because he's not on your team

I never thought of him as a power forward, really, mostly becuase I've not thought enough about their lineup construction and the state of Purdue's forward position feels weird. (It's like one-third Furst, the rest a mix of 6-6 guys in the 215-230 range?)

In any case, Gillis. He's got good Badger ties and when UW played them, I kept having to yell "DON'T LEAVE THAT MFer OPEN!" as the team simply refused to listen. So for now, we'll put more in the love than hate camp. 

[medinabuckeye1]

The only result this week that did not match our projections was Maryland's win at Northwestern but that simply cancelled out Northwestern's win at Maryland back in December. 

For review the tiers are:

• IL+1, UW+1, tOSU, MSU, PU-2
• IU, IA-1
• PSU+1, MN+1, RU+1, UMD (even, +1-1), M-1, NU -1 (+1, -2)
• blank
• UNL

As stated before, for the time being I am treating the Michigan games against PU and MSU as "not to be played".  I'll update that when some official word comes down as to if/when they are going to be rescheduled.  Thus, right now Michigan is projected to play 18 total league games while Purdue and MSU are projected to play 19 and everybody else is projected to play 20. 

Upsets so far are:


Projected final standings/BTT seeds:

• 17-3/25-6 Illinois
• 16-4/22-6 Ohio State (wins tie with UW based on record against MSU, no game in E. Lansing)
• 16-4/25-5 Wisconsin
• 15-4/24-6 Michigan State
• 12-7/23-7 Purdue
• 11-9/20-10 Indiana
• 10-10/20-11 Iowa
• 8-12/13-15 Penn State
• 7-13/15-16 Maryland (wins tie with MN and RU based on H2H2H, no game in Minneapolis)
• 7-13/16-13 Minnesota (second in tie with UMD and RU based on H2H2H, no game in Piscataway, doesn't host UMD)
• 7-13/13-17 Rutgers
• 6-12/12-18 Michigan
• 6-14/13-16 Northwestern
• 0-20/6-25 Nebraska

Thus the BTT match-ups in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:

• #11 Rutgers vs #14 Nebraska, 830pm, BTN
• #12 Michigan vs #13 Northwestern, 6pm, BTN

Thursday, March 10, 2022:

• #5 Purdue vs M/NU, 230pm, BTN
• #6 Indiana vs RU/UNL, 9pm, BTN
• #7 Iowa vs #10 Minnesota, 630pm, BTN
• #8 Penn State vs #9 Maryland, noon, BTN

Friday, March 11, 2022:

• #1 Illinois vs PSU/UMD, noon, BTN
• #2 Ohio State vs IA/MN, 630pm, BTN
• #3 Wisconsin vs IU/RU/UNL, 9pm, BTN
• #4 Michigan State vs PU/M/NU, 230pm, BTN

Saturday, March 12, 2022:

• IL/PSU/UMD vs MSU/PU/M/NU, 1pm, CBS
• tOSU/IA/MN vs UW/IU/RU/UNL, 330pm, CBS

Sunday, March 13, 2022:

• IL/PSU/UMD/MSU/PU/M/NU vs tOSU/IA/MN/UW/IU/RU/UNL, 330pm, CBS

[medinabuckeye1]

In case anyone wants to see the mechanics behind how I track this, here it is:


Columns:

• Team: duh.  Illinois for the first row.  
• noAwayx3:  These are the three teams that the team on that row does not visit.  tOSU, UW, and PSU for the Illini.  
• noHomex3:  These are the three teams that the team on that line does not host.  IU, MN, and UNL for the Illini.  
• RR-W:  Projected wins on a full double-round-robin schedule.  For the Illini and all teams in tier-1 this is 20 (two each against the teams in tier-3 and tier-5 and one each against the teams in tier-2 and the other four teams in tier-1.  
• RR-L:  Projected losses on a full double-round-robin schedule.  For the Illini and all teams in tier-1 this is 6 (one each against the other four teams in tier-1 and the two teams in tier-2).  
• miss-W:  Projected # of wins in the games not played.  For the Illini this is four, all three home games and the road game at Penn State.  
• miss-L:  Projected # of losses in the games not played.  For the Illini this is two, the road games in Columbus and Madison.  
• Proj-W:  RR-W minus miss-W.  For the Illini this is 16 (20-4).  
• Proj-L:  RR-L minus miss-L.  For the Illini this is 4 (6-2).  
• RR%:  Projected winning percentage in a full double-round-robin.  For the Illini this is .769.  
• Proj%:  Projected winning percentage in the games actually on the schedule.  For the Illini this is .800.  
• Diff:  The difference between the prior to columns.  For the Illini this is .031.  This is a rough measure of how favorable or unfavorable of a schedule each team has with the Illini, Buckeyes, and Spartans having the most favorable schedules while the Gophers and Scarlet Knights have the most unfavorable schedules.  
• +Var:  Positive upsets:  For the Illini this is one, their win in Iowa City.  
• -Var:  Negative upsets.  For the Illini this is none.  
• Var:  The net of the prior two columns.  
• Conf-W:  Projected conference wins after accounting for upsets.  For the Illini, 17.  
• Conf-L:  Projected conference losses after accounting for upsets.  For the Illini, 3.  
• OOC-W:  Out of Conference wins.  For the Illini this is 8.  
• OOC-L:  Out of Conference losses.  For the Illini this is 3.  
• Team:  A repeat of the first column.  
• ProjT-W:  Total of projected conference and OOC wins.  For the Illini this is 25.  
• ProjT-L:  Total of projected conference and OOC losses.  For the Illini this is 6.  
• Chk:  Check figure.  To the right of all of this I have a schedule grid with actual (for the games already played) and projected (for the scheduled games not yet played) results which generates the results in the following two columns.  This "Check Figure" column exists to check my work by making sure that those columns match the previous two.  
• ProjC-W:  Same as Conf-W but calculated from the schedule grid rather than the prior columns.  For the Illini this is 17.    
• ProjC-L:  Same as Conf-L but calculated from the schedule grid rather than the prior columns.  For the Illini this is 3.  

The "1"'s in the Check figure column for MSN and Purdue are because their calculated and schedule grid figures currently do NOT match because the calculations assume that they WILL play the PPD Michigan game while the schedule grid assumes that they will NOT play the PPD Michigan game.