2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[bayareabadger]

Greg Gard picking a good year to have a year to exceed expectations, considering how Lamont Paris is doing at Chattanooga.  They are a top 60 KenPom team now

Good for Lamont. Though Gard was gonna need a highly rough year for that to matter. 

[ELA]

MSU is not that good.  Their early Big Ten schedule has been a joke, and home Saturday vs. Northwestern doesn't change that

[ELA]

Good for Lamont. Though Gard was gonna need a highly rough year for that to matter.

Also, tonight was not the night to post that apparently

[bayareabadger]

This OSU team is interesting to me. Their whole front court is shorter, thicker guys. Their best player is this 6-8, 245-pound rangy guy who can be a center, or power forward. They have a banger in Key, a kinda odd all over the place guy in Young, a wing shooter, a great freshman and a mess of guards. 

They're still scorching on long 2s, but shoot more 3s this year. Good at getting to the line too. Interesting task for UW for sure. 

[bayareabadger]

MSU is not that good.  Their early Big Ten schedule has been a joke, and home Saturday vs. Northwestern doesn't change that

Can they trip up a week from Friday? Just for me?

[ELA]

They should win at home against Northwestern this weekend to get to 6-0, then the schedule gets nasty.  If they are 9-5 after 14,.I'll take it

[ELA]

Bingham has been a shell of himself since returning from COVID.  The defensive numbers have reflected that.  This was not a particularly great defensive team, but.in basketball, athleticism and length can go a long way.  This team leaned heavily into that, with a elite rim protector.  Without him being that level at the back, the defense has looked very different

[MaximumSam]

This OSU team is interesting to me. Their whole front court is shorter, thicker guys. Their best player is this 6-8, 245-pound rangy guy who can be a center, or power forward. They have a banger in Key, a kinda odd all over the place guy in Young, a wing shooter, a great freshman and a mess of guards.

They're still scorching on long 2s, but shoot more 3s this year. Good at getting to the line too. Interesting task for UW for sure.

They are really loving the three point line this year, hitting 39% as a team. Only Key and Brunk won't shoot them - everyone else has the green light. The guard play has been inconsistent - Branham has come on of late, though on the road at the Kohl Center guarding Davis doesn't make me think he'll have a great time tonight.

[ELA]

Also lost last night in the ending is that Eric Curry had to be helped off the court.  He might be the most irreplaceable player on their team, and that could be a major blow if he's done, and it didn't look good

[medinabuckeye1]

They should win at home against Northwestern this weekend to get to 6-0, then the schedule gets nasty.  If they are 9-5 after 14,.I'll take it

I think this is a really good illustration of why we do the tiers.  It helps us to temper expectations when a team starts off 6-0 but has had an easy schedule and also helps us to not lose sight of a hypothetical good team that starts out 2-4 on a really tough schedule.  

Michigan State so far this year is a good example, their games so far:

• 12/8 at MN, tier-3
• 12/11 vs PSU, tier-3
• 1/2 at NU, tier-3
• 1/5 vs UNL, tier-5
• 1/12 vs MN, tier-3
• 1/15 vs NU, tier-3

Assuming they win this weekend they'll be 6-0 but that is on four home games and only two road games all six will have been against teams in the bottom half of the conference.  Then, as you pointed out, it gets much tougher:

• 1/21 at UW, tier-1
• 1/25 at IL, tier-1
• 1/29 vs M, tier-3
• 2/1 at UMD, tier-3
• 2/5 at RU, tier-3
• 2/8 vs UW, tier-1
• 2/12 vs IU, tier-2
• 2/15 at PSU, tier-3
• 2/19 vs IL, tier-1
• 2/22 at IA, tier-2

[medinabuckeye1]

Michigan State's win over Minnesota in East Lansing last night was expected but Maryland's win over Northwestern in Evanston was not.  

There really isn't any viable prediction system that would predict Northwestern and Maryland to split their series with each team winning on the road but that is exactly what happened.  

That drops Northwestern's projected finish to 6-14 (13th place) and improves Maryland's projected finish to 7-13 (tied with MN and RU for 10th/11th/12th).  

[medinabuckeye1]

Titus & Tate (The Fox Sports College Basketball Podcast) spent the whole first segment going off on how many "coincidences" there seem to be where Michigan seems to have a COVID outbreak right before a big game, and leaning into the Juwan Howard the Duck nickname.  Half tongue in cheek, half it's getting weird

How likely are Michigan's games against PU and MSU to be rescheduled?  

Looking at the remainder of the season:

• M and MSU both play on Tuesday, February 8 then again on Saturday, February 12.  In theory they could play each other on Thursday, February 10 but that winds up as a pretty quick turn-around for both teams for the games before and after (at PSU, vs tOSU for M; vs UW, vs IU for MSU).  It helps, however, that the two teams are close so there isn't a lot of travel time involved.  It also helps that MSU's games before and after are both home games as is Michigan's game after.  
• If Purdue's game at Northwestern (close geographically) on Wednesday, February 16 could get moved to Thursday (same as Michigan's game at Iowa) then PU and Michigan could play on Tuesday, February 15 but it would be a pretty quick turn-around on both ends for both teams.  

As noted before, for purposes of the tier-based projections I'm treating both games as if they are NOT going to be played until I actually see them scheduled.  

[ELA]

The schedule looks tough.  February 10 works, but if I'm MSU, I tell them no way.  That I believe makes 4 games in 7 days for MSU, 3 on the road.  I'm fine with doing away with the forfeit policy, but the non-COVID team should get to pick the makeup date.

[medinabuckeye1]

The schedule looks tough.  February 10 works, but if I'm MSU, I tell them no way.  That I believe makes 4 games in 7 days for MSU, 3 on the road.  I'm fine with doing away with the forfeit policy, but the non-COVID team should get to pick the makeup date.

It ends up a mess for everybody involved for sure.  If the league mandated what I suggested here, this is what MSU would end up with:

• 2/8 vs UW
• 2/10 at M
• 2/12 vs IU
• 2/15 at PSU

Purdue:

• 2/13 vs UMD
• 2/15 at M
• 2/17 at NU

Then there is Michigan:

• 2/8 at PSU
• 2/10 vs MSU
• 2/12 vs tOSU
• 2/15 vs PU
• 2/17 at Iowa

How exactly are these games being treated right now by the league?  AFAIK the league considers them "postponed" so there is no forfeit because there is the intention to reschedule.  Ok, what if they don't?  At some point if they don't get rescheduled you either have to charge Michigan with a forfeit or just plan on Purdue and Michigan State playing only 19 league games while M plays only 18.  

If they just don't play them that sucks for MSU and PU because they are projected to win.  The projections right now have MSU finishing 15-4 which is 1/2 game behind the Buckeyes and Badgers.  If the game is rescheduled then MSU would move into a projected tie for 2nd/3rd/4th.