2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[ELA]

Yeah, if you go to the daily schedule, it's showing as being on espn2

[847badgerfan]

I don't get that either.  When the new poll comes out this could well be a top-15 match-up. 

UW 13. OSU 16.

[bayareabadger]

I actually watched this game because it came on right after the tOSU/NU track meet and I thought weird also.  Early on it looked like UW was going to run UMD out of the gym and then it ended up as a one point win.  But I agree with this:Take any road win you can get, even UNL. 

UW is in an intersting spot. They're No. 10 in the country in the somewhat useful but poorly named in terms of triggering people "luck" rating. There's a bit of gambler's fallacy, but they've been really good in close games, and that often evens out.

They are looking down three projected tossups after winning two and pulling a big road upset. Going 1-2 would be fine, 2-1 quite good, 0-3 not damning by any stretch. 

More notably, UW has five more should-wins (favored by 7 plus in the ratings), home vs Minn, PSU, Neb, Rutgers and at Neb. If they can avoid an upset, they're a win away from the dance before considering any of the other games. They've got probably six-ish more toss-ups, including Purdue at home (UW at 42% to win), plus three TOUGH road games, as Ill, MSU, IU. KenPom and T-Rank project getting to 13-7 in league. I might take the under there because I'm a sandbagger, but if they want to be there, would take it. 

[medinabuckeye1]

UW 13. OSU 16.

Well close and it is the only game between two ranked teams that day.  The other ranked teams in action are:

• #20 Seton Hall at DePaul (9-5/0-4)
• #19 TxTech vs OkSU (8-5/1-1)
• #3 UCLA vs Oregon (8-6/1-2)
• #2 Gonzaga vs BYU (14-3/2-0)
• #5 USC vs OrSU (3-10/1-2)
• #6 Zona vs Colorado (11-3/3-1)

Only TxTech is in the same time-slot (7pm).  Seton Hall is at 5 and all the others are later West Coast games.  One would think that tOSU@UW would be the biggest draw of the night. 

ESPN's site now says ESPN2 on both tOSU's and UW's schedules.  

[medinabuckeye1]

UW is in an intersting spot. They're No. 10 in the country in the somewhat useful but poorly named in terms of triggering people "luck" rating. There's a bit of gambler's fallacy, but they've been really good in close games, and that often evens out.

They are looking down three projected tossups after winning two and pulling a big road upset. Going 1-2 would be fine, 2-1 quite good, 0-3 not damning by any stretch.

More notably, UW has five more should-wins (favored by 7 plus in the ratings), home vs Minn, PSU, Neb, Rutgers and at Neb. If they can avoid an upset, they're a win away from the dance before considering any of the other games. They've got probably six-ish more toss-ups, including Purdue at home (UW at 42% to win), plus three TOUGH road games, as Ill, MSU, IU. KenPom and T-Rank project getting to 13-7 in league. I might take the under there because I'm a sandbagger, but if they want to be there, would take it.

Yeah, by a lot.  To be fair you did present it as basically a worst case scenario. 

In the tiers system we now project them to go 16-4/25-5.  I'd definitely take the under on that.  Nothing against Wisconsin but typically tier-1 teams tend to get upset more than the pull off upsets simply because they have a LOT more opportunities to get upset. 

With respect to the tOSU@UW game on Thursday I have no idea what to expect.  At their best the Buckeyes are the team that beat Dook and blew out Wisconsin in Columbus but since the Holidays and their COVID pause the Buckeyes haven't looked very good:

• They needed OT against Nebraska,
• They got run out of the gym in Bloomington, and
• They scored LOTS of points but defended poorly and turned the ball over about a gazillion times such that they only barely beat Northwestern at home. 

Meanwhile Wisconsin obviously looked terrible in Columbus and they had uncomfortably close wins after that over Nicholls and Illinois State but since the calendar flipped to 2022 the Badgers have been on fire with the huge win at Purdue and wins over Iowa (home) and Maryland (away). 

I also think that the next three for UW as a whole, are better than a toss-up.  Per ESPN:

• 61.8% to beat tOSU at home
• 45.7% to beat NU on the road
• 58.4% to beat MSU at home

The tiers say 3-0 and 2-1 wouldn't shock me but if UW goes 1-2 I'd be surprised and if they were to go 0-3 I'd wonder what went wrong.  

[ELA]

Going to try to post an updated NCAA and NIT Bracketology each week, simply 2/3 SOR, and 1/3 KenPom.  Things should come into focus more as we go on.  Still have some outliers.

For auto-bid purposes, I'm assuming whoever is in first gets the autobid, but that the highest ranked KenPom team wins the tournament

January 10 update

SOUTH

• #1 Baylor vs. #16 Nicholls/Texas Southern
• #8 San Francisco vs. #9 Belmont
• #5 Alabama vs. #12 TCU/Memphis
• #4 Duke vs. #13 UAB
• #3 PURDUE vs. #14 Vermont
• #6 Loyola(Chi) vs. #11 Miami
• #7 Texas vs. #10 MINNESOTA
• #2 UCLA vs. #15 Texas State

MIDWEST

• #1 Auburn vs. #16 Winthrop/Howard
• #8 Connecticut vs. #9 Wake Forest
• #5 Iowa State vs. #12 Murray State/Marquette
• #4 OHIO STATE vs. #13 Oakland
• #3 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #14 Toledo
• #6 Seton Hall vs. #11 Chattanooga
• #7 Colorado State vs. #10 IOWA
• #2 Kansas vs. #15 Towson

EAST

• #1 LSU vs. #16 Liberty
• #8 BYU vs. #9 Oklahoma
• #5 Tennessee vs. #12 Iona
• #4 Xavier vs. #13 Wagner
• #3 WISCONSIN vs. #14 Navy
• #6 West Virginia vs. #11 Ohio
• #7 North Carolina vs. #10 INDIANA
• #2 Villanova vs. #15 Princeton

WEST

• #1 Arizona vs. #16 Weber State
• #8 Kentucky vs. #9 San Diego State
• #5 Providence vs. #12 Texas A&M
• #4 Gonzaga vs. #13 NM State
• #3 Houston vs. #14 South Dakota State
• #6 Texas Tech vs. #11 Saint Mary's
• #7 ILLINOIS vs. #10 Davidson
• #2 USC vs. #15 UC Irvine

NIT
LARAMIE

• #1 Wyoming vs. #8 UC Davis
• #4 Colorado vs. #5 Saint Louis
• #3 Central Florida vs. #6 Virginia Tech
• #2 Louisville vs. #7 Louisiana

OMAHA

• #1 Creighton vs. #8 UNC Wilmington
• #4 Virginia vs. #5 Stanford
• #3 Florida vs. #6 Cleveland State
• #2 Notre Dame vs. #7 Texas A&M-CC

RUSTON

• #1 Louisiana Tech vs. #8 Norfolk State
• #4 Florida State vs. #5 South Carolina
• #3 Oklahoma State vs. #6 Fresno State
• #2 St. Bonaventure vs. #7 TUNC Asheville

RICHMOND

• #1 VCU vs. #8 Southern
• #4 Boise State vs. #5 Monmouth
• #3 Mississippi State vs. #6 MICHIGAN
• #2 Clemson vs. #7 Jacksonville

Big Ten team who made neither...

• Rutgers is the 8th team out of the NIT
• Penn State is the 9th
• Northwestern is the 12th
• Maryland is the 15th

[847badgerfan]

How is Nova a 2 seed?

[ELA]

How is Nova a 2 seed?

#13 in SOR and #5 in KenPom.

I did also realize I accidentally sorted KenPom to be the tiebreaker instead of SOR, so really, MSU should be the final 2 seed, and Villanova the top 3 seed, but either way, they come up as the #8/#9 overall team

[847badgerfan]

Man, their losses are just ugly though.

[bayareabadger]

Yeah, by a lot.  To be fair you did present it as basically a worst case scenario. 

In the tiers system we now project them to go 16-4/25-5.  I'd definitely take the under on that.  Nothing against Wisconsin but typically tier-1 teams tend to get upset more than the pull off upsets simply because they have a LOT more opportunities to get upset. 

With respect to the tOSU@UW game on Thursday I have no idea what to expect.  At their best the Buckeyes are the team that beat Dook and blew out Wisconsin in Columbus but since the Holidays and their COVID pause the Buckeyes haven't looked very good:

• They needed OT against Nebraska,
• They got run out of the gym in Bloomington, and
• They scored LOTS of points but defended poorly and turned the ball over about a gazillion times such that they only barely beat Northwestern at home. 

Meanwhile Wisconsin obviously looked terrible in Columbus and they had uncomfortably close wins after that over Nicholls and Illinois State but since the calendar flipped to 2022 the Badgers have been on fire with the huge win at Purdue and wins over Iowa (home) and Maryland (away). 

I also think that the next three for UW as a whole, are better than a toss-up.  Per ESPN:

• 61.8% to beat tOSU at home
• 45.7% to beat NU on the road
• 58.4% to beat MSU at home

The tiers say 3-0 and 2-1 wouldn't shock me but if UW goes 1-2 I'd be surprised and if they were to go 0-3 I'd wonder what went wrong. 

I mean, I don't think they'll go 0-3 the next 3, but I could see it. They had a worse chance of going 3-0 across the past three. 

As said, I use the projections, not the tiers. So 2-1 or 1-2 is most likely. UW's been running a little hot of late, catching two good teams at home, one solid one on the road. The thing is, even if they did go 0-3, I wouldn't find myself terribly worried. 

[ELA]

Composite Computer Rankings (last week in parenthesis) - 43 computers

• Baylor (1)
• Auburn (5)
• Arizona (2)
• LSU (9)
• Gonzaga (3)
• Kansas (4)
• Houston (8)
• PURDUE (6)
• USC (10)
• Villanova (13)
• UCLA (14)
• MICHIGAN STATE (12)
• Duke (7)
• Xavier (19)
• ILLINOIS (20)
• Alabama (11)
• Tennessee (16)
• OHIO STATE (15)
• WISCONSIN (-)
• Kentucky (18)
• Texas (17)
• Loyola(Chi) (24)
• Seton Hall (-)
• Connecticut (23)
• Texas Tech (25)

• 29. Indiana (39)
• 31. Iowa (29)
• 54. Michigan (38)
• 60. Minnesota (43)
• 75. Northwestern (66)
• 78. Penn State (90)
• 89. Maryland (70)
• 93. Rutgers (114)
• 179. Nebraska (165)

[medinabuckeye1]

Results last night were as projected so no changes.  

In Lunardi's latest Bracketology we are down to seven teams in with none of those seven "one the bubble" and two teams barely out (Minnesota is the first team out and Michigan is the sixth team out).  Lunardi's projections:

• #2 PU
• #3 MSU
• #4 UW, IL
• #5 tOSU
• #8 IU
• #9 IA

Based on past results by seed, on average those seeds would result in:

• 5 teams in the R32
• 2.57 teams in the S16
• 1.15 teams in the E8
• 0.59 teams in the F4
• 0.24 teams in the NC
• 0.08 National Champions

[ELA]

Titus & Tate (The Fox Sports College Basketball Podcast) spent the whole first segment going off on how many "coincidences" there seem to be where Michigan seems to have a COVID outbreak right before a big game, and leaning into the Juwan Howard the Duck nickname.  Half tongue in cheek, half it's getting weird

[ELA]

Greg Gard picking a good year to have a year to exceed expectations, considering how Lamont Paris is doing at Chattanooga.  They are a top 60 KenPom team now