I like Illinois a lot - Cockburn is a monster and they surround him with experienced shooters. They got clipped early in the season when Cockburn was getting back from suspension and Curbelo was playing with a concussion, but since then their only blip is a close loss to Arizona. No shame in that. They have two road wins in conference already, and they are still waiting for Curbelo to come back.
I agree so I'll keep IL in the top tier.
I think I'd leave PU in the top top, but have them be joined by MSU, and MAYBE Illinois.
Then OSU, UW, IL (if not in with the 1's), Iowa.
The problem for this is tOSU. As a Buckeye fan I'd rather have them under the radar in tier-2 but based on results so far, they should stay in tier-1.
The difference is projected result in road games against tier-3 teams. For Ohio State those are:
- @ NU, not scheduled
- @ PSU, W on
- @ MN - 1/27
- @ RU - 2/9
- @ M - 2/12
- @ UMD - 2/27
Right now tOSU is 1-0 in these games with four more to be played. If they lose at Minnesota or generally look bad between now and then I'll move them down but for now moving them down would add to the total number of "upsets". f
Thus, new tiers:
- IL, MSU, tOSU, PU
- UW, IU, IA
- NU, MN, RU, PSU, UMD, M
- BLANK
- UNL
New projected final standings/BTT seeds:
- 17-3 Illinois
- 16-4 Ohio State (wins tie with MSU based on H2H, no game in E. Lansing)
- 16-4 Michigan State
- 13-7 Purdue
- 12-8 Wisconsin
- 11-9 Indiana
- 10-10 Iowa
- *8-12 Penn State
- 8-12 Minnesota
- 8-12 Northwestern
- 8-12 Rutgers
- 7-13 Maryland
- 6-14 Michigan
- 0-20 Nebraska
Thus, the projected BTT match-ups in Indianapolis are:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Rutgers vs #14 Nebraska, 830pm, BTN
- #12 Maryland vs #13 Michigan 6pm, BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Wisconsin vs UMD/M, 230pm, BTN
- #6 Indiana vs RU/UNL, 9pm, BTN
- #7 Iowa vs #10 Northwestern, 630pm, BTN
- #8 Penn State vs #9 Minnesota, noon, BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Illinois vs PSU/MN, noon, BTN
- #2 Ohio State vs IA/NU, 630pm, BTN
- #3 Michigan State vs IU/RU/UNL, 9pm, BTN
- #4 Purdue vs UW/UMD/M, 230pm, BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- IL/PSU/MN vs PU/UW/UMD/M, 1pm, CBS
- tOSU/IA/NU vs MSU/IU/RU/UNL, 330pm, CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- IL/PSU/MN/PU/UW/UMD/M vs tOSU/IA/NU/MSU/IU/RU/UNL, 330pm, CBS
*Breaking the 4-way tie at 8-12 for seeds 8-11 between NU, MN, RU, and PSU:
The H2H2H2H would theoretically be 3-3 for each if we played a full double-round-robin but we don't.
- NU and RU don't play in Piscataway. That improves NU to 3-2 and drops RU to 2-3.
- MN and RU don't play in Piscataway. That improves MN to 3-2 and drops RU to 1-3.
- PSU won in Evanston. That improves PSU to 4-2 and drops NU to 2-3.
Thus the projected H2H2H2H between the 8-12 teams is:
- 4-2 Penn State
- 3-2 Minnesota
- 2-3 Northwestern
- 1-3 Rutgers
