2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[847badgerfan]

If he keeps this up, he will have a good case for the second-best individual season in program history. I don’t think he’ll push Frank, and I would have to double check how good Harris was when he peaked, but he’s on pace to top Tucker’s best, Happ’s 19-10-5 and a few others.

If he keeps this up, he's probably a lottery pick. I knew his 3* ranking was BS.

[medinabuckeye1]

So, an update. 

The current tiers (although there was a lot of disagreement about this) are:

• PU
• IL, MSU, tOSU, M
• IA, UW, IU
• NU, MN, UMD
• PSU, RU
• UNL

The upsets, based on those tiers, are:

The teams are:

• +2:  RU
• +1:  IL, UW, NU, MN, PSU
• even:  MSU, tOSU, UNL
• -1:  IA, IU, UMD
• -2:  PU, M

The teams that we should start thinking about moving are those that are outside of +/-1 so:

Rutgers is at +2 with two positive upsets:

• They won a home game over PU on 12/9
• They won a home game over M on 1/4

Those would still both be upsets even if we moved them up a spot but the Michigan game wouldn't be if we also move Michigan down which appears to be needed at this point.  Thus, I think Rutgers will be placed back within +/-1 by moving Michigan. 

Purdue is at -2 with two negative upsets:

• They lost at RU on 12/9
• They lost a home game to UW on 1/3

Maybe they should move down into the tier with IL, MSU, and tOSU but they seem better than that to me, maybe these are just upsets that we should let ride or maybe Wisconsin should move up but I don't think we've seen enough to know for sure. 

Michigan is at -2 with two negative upsets:

• They lost a home game to MN on 12/11
• They lost at RU on 1/4

I think they should move down a tier. 

Thoughts?

Questions:

• Should Michigan move down to tier 3?  
• Should Rutgers move up to tier 4?  
• Should Purdue move down to tier 2 (which would become tier-1)?  
• Should we make any other moves at this time?  

[ELA]

I would flip UM and UW and move Rutgers up

[medinabuckeye1]

Based on the current tiers (see above) the projected final standings/BTT seeds are:

• 16-4 Illinois
• 15-5 Michigan State (wins H2H tiebreaker with PU, no game in W. Lafayette)
• 15-5 Purdue
• 15-5 Ohio State (loses 3-way tie with PU and MSU based on record against IL)
• 12-8 Wisconsin
• 11-9 Michigan (wins tie with IA based on record against IL)
• 11-9 Iowa
• 10-10 Indiana
• 9-11 Northwestern
• 8-12 Minnesota
• 7-13 Maryland
• 5-15 Rutgers (wins tie with PSU based on record against the 15-5 teams due to their upset of PU)
• 5-15 Penn State
• 1-19 Nebraska

The BTT match-ups would be:

Wednesday, March 9, 2022:

• #11 Maryland vs #14 Nebraska, 830pm, BTN
• #12 Rutgers vs #12 Penn State, 6pm, BTN

Thursday, March 10, 2022:

• #5 Wisconsin vs RU/PSU, 230pm, BTN
• #6 Michigan vs UMD/UNL, 9pm, BTN
• #7 Iowa vs #10 Minnesota, 630pm, BTN
• #8 Indiana vs #9 Northwestern, noon, BTN

Friday, March 11, 2022:

• #1 Illinois vs IU/NU, noon, BTN
• #2 Michigan State vs IA/MN, 630pm, BTN
• #3 Purdue vs M/UMD/UNL, 9pm, BTN
• #4 Ohio State vs UW/RU/PSU, 230pm, BTN

Saturday, March 12, 2022:

• IL/IU/NU vs tOSU/UW/RU/PSU, 1pm, CBS
• MSU/IA/MN vs PU/M/UMD/UNL, 330pm, CBS

Sunday, March 13, 2022:

• IL/IU/NU/tOSU/UW/RU/PSU vs MSU/IA/MN/PU/M/UMD/UNL, 330pm, CBS

[medinabuckeye1]

I would flip UM and UW and move Rutgers up

FWIW:
I'm going to hold off on the update until Friday.  That way, when I do the update I can include the results of the games tonight and tomorrow.  

I don't object to your suggestion but while I'm waiting we'll see what consensus develops.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

I'd move Purdue down. 

At this point in the season, they're just not good at defense. They gave up 90 to Nicholls. This is something that has been worrying Purdue fans for weeks, and everyone has just been hoping that Matt Painter will get it figured out. Well, giving up 29 to Gordon from Nicholls and 37 to Davis from Wisconsin suggests they're just not very close to turning it around. 

They're not a complete team without defense, and thus I don't see how they're going to be able to separate themselves from the tier below them in any meaningful way until/unless they figure out how to play D. 

Granted, moving them down one tier still leaves them at -2 on the upsets, since they lost to Wisconsin at home and Rutgers on the road, EVEN if you move Rutgers up. 

But either way, I can't justify them being in a tier all by themselves based on their play on the court. 

[MaximumSam]

Torvik rankings

9. Purdue
13. Illinois
16. MSU
22. Indiana
23. OSU
24. Iowa
37. Michigan
39. Wisconsin
52. Northwestern
62. Minny
93. Maryland
99. PSU
111. Rutgers
170. Nebraska

As far as tiers, hmm. I'd probably arrange them:
1. Purdue, Illinois, MSU
2. OSU, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin
3. Michigan, Northwestern, Minny, Maryland, PSU, Rutgers
4. Nebraska

Purdue looked lights out early, but they really have been struggling on defense, which is very surprising. Their profile resembles Iowa more than, er, Purdue right now. You have to think that will change given their history, but I'm not sure they are worlds better or have way more potential than Illinois or Sparty. The next group are solid tourney level teams, though Wiscy needs to get more consistent. The third tier are teams that are likely to struggle to make the tourney, which Michigan is definitely a part of right now. The fourth tier is Nebraska Who Sucks. 

[ELA]

Wednesday, March 9, 2022:

• #11 Maryland vs #14 Nebraska, 830pm, BTN
• #12 Rutgers vs #12 Penn State, 6pm, BTN

Yay expansion!

[ELA]

Torvik rankings

Is that removing preseason data?

[bayareabadger]

I would flip UM and UW and move Rutgers up

Now, now, now, let’s keep UW nice and below the radar please 

[MaximumSam]

Is that removing preseason data?

Yeah probably, I was looking at both and thought I was doing with but maybe not. Though differences are starting to get pretty minimal at this point.

[MaximumSam]

Torvik with preseason data

7. Purdue
13. Illinois
16. MSU
20. OSU
21. Indiana
25. Iowa
35. Michigan
40. Wisconsin
52. Northwestern
69. Minny
83. Maryland
93. PSU
103. Rutgers
164. Nebraska

[medinabuckeye1]

@MaximumSam 
If you could make your suggestions in a comparable format that would help.  I have:

• PU down which @betarhoalphadelta also voted for.  
• M down two tiers.  @ELA and I also have them moving down one.  
• RU up a tier which ELA also voted for.  
• tOSU down a tier.  
• PSU up a tier.  

I think that is all:


The "Torvik" column is just basically using the natural gaps in the Torvik rankings as posted by Max:

• 9-PU, 13-IL, 16-MSU
• 23-tOSU, 22-IU, 24-IA
• 37-M, 39-UW, 52-NU, 62-MN
• 93-UMD, 99-PSU, 111-RU
• 170-UNL

Max has four tiers.  We currently have six and ELA's suggestion implicitly kept six.  Beta's suggestion to move PU down compresses that to five.  We only get to four if we move PSU up along with RU to eliminate tier-5.  

[ELA]

I would argue Torvik still has 6, splitting the 3rd tier in half