I am with grillrat. I'd switch UM and UW.
And I'm not sure the Gophers win against Michigan should be treated as an aberration. They kept the game close going into the half....and then completely controlled the second half. Even with a 19 point deficit to MSU....they managed to pull the game back to single digits with four minutes remaining and down to six with less than a minute. That was on 6-23 (26.1%) shooting from three. MSU went 10-21 (47.6%) for the game.
I don't necessarily disagree with you and
@grillrat , it is just that I already built the spreadsheet and I'm really not sure so I'd rather wait until we have more information.
FWIW, here are the impacts of the proposed changes:
Effect of moving Michigan down:
This changes the projected result to L from W for the following four games:
- vs PU - 1/11
- @NU - not played
- @MN - not played
- @UMD - not played
Since three of the four aren't played this would only have a minimal impact. Michigan's projection would drop from 12-8 into a tie with IA, UW, and IU at 11-9.
Effect of moving Wisconsin up:
This changes the projected result to W from L for the following four games:
- vs PU - 3/1
- @NU - 1/18
- @MN - 2/23
- @UMD - 1/9
In this case all four games are on the schedule so it would improve Wisconsin's projected finish to 15-5 from 11-9. That would be in a tie with tOSU and MSU for 3rd/4th/5th.
Effect of moving Minnesota up:
This changes the projected result to W from L for the following six games:
- vs IL - 1/2
- vs MSU - already lost
- vs tOSU - 1/27
- vs M - not played
- @PSU - 1/19
- @RU - not played
Since two of the games are not played and a third they already lost this change would only improve their projected final to 11-9 from 8-12. This would be into the tie with IA/UW/IU. In this case the change would also create an upset but making Michigan State's win in Minneapolis an upset. Furthermore, Minnesota's next league game is vs Illinois which is another of the group where this matters. We'll see what happens on January 2.
In the second half of December the Wolverines have three OOC games that they should easily win then they resume conference play at Rutgers on January 4. If they struggle with their OOC opponents then lose in Piscataway we'll move them down. If not then probably not.
In the second half of December the Badgers have three OOC games that they should easily win then they resume conference play at Purdue on January 3 followed by hosting Iowa on January 6. If they steamroll their OOC opponents then (at least) give PU a good game in West Lafayette and cruise past Iowa at home we'll move them up. If not then probably not.
In the second half of December the Gophers have three OOC games that they should easily win then they resume conference play at home against Illinois on January 2. If they crush their OOC opponents then beat the Illini in Minneapolis we'll move them up. If not then probably not.