2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[RestingB!tchFace]

I'm thinking, for the time being, that we should treat the Gophers' win in Ann Arbor as an aberration but obviously be cognizant that if MN pulls off another unpredicted win or two then they move up and if Michigan has another unpredicted loss or two then they move down. 

Wisconsin at two or three:
I think three is appropriate for now.  Their games are a home win over IU and a road loss to tOSU which would match the projections regardless but the win over IU was close while the loss to tOSU was a blowout.  If that were reversed I'd be more open to moving them up. 

I am with grillrat.  I'd switch UM and UW.

And I'm not sure the Gophers win against Michigan should be treated as an aberration.  They kept the game close going into the half....and then completely controlled the second half.  Even with a 19 point deficit to MSU....they managed to pull the game back to single digits with four minutes remaining and down to six with less than a minute.  That was on 6-23 (26.1%) shooting from three.  MSU went 10-21 (47.6%) for the game.

[medinabuckeye1]

Most to least favorable schedules:

Most favorable are Northwestern and Maryland.  We project that both would go 9-17 in a double-round-robin and the six games not on the schedule for the Wildcats and the Terrapins are five losses and just a single win which improves their projections up to 8-12.  

Least favorable is Michigan.  We project that they would go 19-7 in a double-round-robin but they miss six wins and zero losses so that drops to just 13-7 on the actual schedule.  

Rutgers' schedule is also fairly unfavorable but everybody else is pretty even.  

[ELA]

Most favorable are Northwestern and Maryland.  

No.  No.  No.  No.  No.

Didn't you know the Big Ten added Maryland only to screw them?

[medinabuckeye1]

I am with grillrat.  I'd switch UM and UW.

And I'm not sure the Gophers win against Michigan should be treated as an aberration.  They kept the game close going into the half....and then completely controlled the second half.  Even with a 19 point deficit to MSU....they managed to pull the game back to single digits with four minutes remaining and down to six with less than a minute.  That was on 6-23 (26.1%) shooting from three.  MSU went 10-21 (47.6%) for the game.

I don't necessarily disagree with you and @grillrat , it is just that I already built the spreadsheet and I'm really not sure so I'd rather wait until we have more information.  

FWIW, here are the impacts of the proposed changes:
Effect of moving Michigan down:
This changes the projected result to L from W for the following four games:

• vs PU - 1/11
• @NU - not played
• @MN - not played
• @UMD - not played

Since three of the four aren't played this would only have a minimal impact.  Michigan's projection would drop from 12-8 into a tie with IA, UW, and IU at 11-9.  

Effect of moving Wisconsin up:
This changes the projected result to W from L for the following four games:

• vs PU - 3/1
• @NU - 1/18
• @MN - 2/23
• @UMD - 1/9

In this case all four games are on the schedule so it would improve Wisconsin's projected finish to 15-5 from 11-9.  That would be in a tie with tOSU and MSU for 3rd/4th/5th.  

Effect of moving Minnesota up:
This changes the projected result to W from L for the following six games:

• vs IL - 1/2
• vs MSU - already lost
• vs tOSU - 1/27
• vs M - not played
• @PSU - 1/19
• @RU - not played

Since two of the games are not played and a third they already lost this change would only improve their projected final to 11-9 from 8-12.  This would be into the tie with IA/UW/IU.  In this case the change would also create an upset but making Michigan State's win in Minneapolis an upset.  Furthermore, Minnesota's next league game is vs Illinois which is another of the group where this matters.  We'll see what happens on January 2.  

In the second half of December the Wolverines have three OOC games that they should easily win then they resume conference play at Rutgers on January 4.  If they struggle with their OOC opponents then lose in Piscataway we'll move them down.  If not then probably not.  

In the second half of December the Badgers have three OOC games that they should easily win then they resume conference play at Purdue on January 3 followed by hosting Iowa on January 6.  If they steamroll their OOC opponents then (at least) give PU a good game in West Lafayette and cruise past Iowa at home we'll move them up.  If not then probably not.  

In the second half of December the Gophers have three OOC games that they should easily win then they resume conference play at home against Illinois on January 2.  If they crush their OOC opponents then beat the Illini in Minneapolis we'll move them up.  If not then probably not.  

[ELA]

Also, this Northwestern team looks good enough that, if the schedule does break that way for them, could be a 5th or 6th place type team, that sneaks into the tourney

[medinabuckeye1]

We are now in a fairly quiet period between the challenge and other early big OOC games along with the early league games and the resumption of league play in January.  Between now and January 2 when league play resumes these are the only games that I see as being of much note:

• Purdue vs Butler in Indianapolis at noon on Saturday, December 18, FOX
• Indiana vs Notre Dame in Indianapolis at 2:30 on Saturday, December 18, FOX
• Ohio State vs Kentucky in Vegas at 5:15 on Saturday, December 18, CBS
• Illinois vs Mizzou in St. Louis at 9pm on Wednesday, December 22, BTN

Then nine of our 14 schools have bowl games all between Tuesday, December 28 and Saturday, January 1.  

On Sunday, January 2 league BB games resume with more than half of our teams in action on that day.  The tip times on Sunday, January 2 are staggered such that if you want it you can watch eight straight hours of B1G BB starting with MSU and Northwestern tipping off in Evanston at 2pm and ending with Ohio State and Nebraska finishing up around 10pm in Lincoln.  

[ELA]

I had totally forgot, until someone recently mentioned it, that the Big Ten played on Christmas Day last year

[FearlessF]

If they are cheating, they really suck at it.

https://twitter.com/TrevAlberts/status/1470881454674649093?s=20

[Benthere2]

No one is more surprised with the Gophers season so far than me or any gopher fan
but the days of Pitino's weaka$$ defense, and selfish offense are gone. these players play hard and while they are not ultra talented they have some talent and if hot can hit from 3 and pound it inside enough to give any team that wants a night off to pay the price

they are a much more fun team to watch than in the past 5-10 years

things are looking up at the Barn 

[medinabuckeye1]

No one is more surprised with the Gophers season so far than me or any gopher fan
but the days of Pitino's weaka$$ defense, and selfish offense are gone. these players play hard and while they are not ultra talented they have some talent and if hot can hit from 3 and pound it inside enough to give any team that wants a night off to pay the price

they are a much more fun team to watch than in the past 5-10 years

things are looking up at the Barn

How do things look for the Gophers?

They are now 9-1/1-1 with two more OOC match-ups in December before league play resumes in January.  None of their OOC opponents are great but they should pretty easily beat Green Bay and Alcorn State to finish 10-0 OOC.  

Within the league their current, tier-4 placement suggests a final record of 7-13 but they already have an upset win (at Michigan) so that improves to 8-12.  Added to their presumed 10-0 OOC, that would put them at 18-12/8-12 heading into the B1G Tournament where we project them to be the #10 seed.  That would put them into a Thursday game against a likely tournament-bound team (currently projected Iowa) and if they win that they'd get the #2 seed on Friday in a game where a loss wouldn't really hurt and a win would be HUGE.  If they did manage to knock off the #2 seed (projected PU right now) that would put them in a Saturday game against the #3/6/11/14 winner which would likely be yet another tournament-bound team (currently projected tOSU/UW/UMD/UNL).  

As I see it, their current projection is probably just outside of the Tournament but certainly in the bubble discussion so over the whole course of the season they probably either need:

• To get another unpredicted win or two (plus one more for each unpredicted loss if necessary), or
• To go on a little run in Indianapolis.  

My point being that I see the Gophers as probably very close to the cut-line based on this projection so every game matters because an extra loss or two would likely necessitate winning the B1G Tournament while an extra couple of wins would likely eliminate the need to do much in Indianapolis (with the possible exception of avoiding a bad loss in their opener if they manage to move up enough to get an opening game opponent that would constitute a bad loss.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Confirming the above, in Lunardi's latest Bracketology (updated for the 12/9 games) the Gophers are listed as the #8 team out.  

The B1G leads all conferences with nine teams projected in (B12 and SEC are tied for second with seven each, BE and ACC are tied for fourth with six each).  

The projected B1G teams are:

• #1 Purdue
• #4 Michigan State
• #5 Wisconsin
• #6 Ohio State
• #7 Michigan, Illinois
• #9 Indiana, Iowa
• #11 (play-in) Northwestern

Those seeds would result in the following number of teams making each round based on tournament history since expansion to 64 in 1985:

• 5.47 teams in the R32
• 2.52 teams in the S16
• 1.23 teams in the E8
• 0.65 teams in the F4
• 0.33 teams in the NC
• 0.19 teams winning the NC

Method:

• I treat Northwestern as 1/2 of an 11 seed on the basis that they have to win a play-in game to get it.  
• In the R64 #1 seeds have won 99.31% of the time, #4 seeds 78.47%, #5 seeds 64.58%, #6 seeds 62.50%, #7 seeds 60.42%, #9 seeds 48.61%, and #11 seeds 37.50%.  Add those up for the nine projected teams and you get 547.22% or roughly five-and-a-half teams in the R32
• In the R32 #1 seeds have won 85.42% of the time, #4 seeds 46.53%, #5 seeds 34.03%, #6 seeds 29.86%, #7 seeds 19.44%, #9 seeds 4.86%, and #11 seeds 16.67%.  Add those up for the nine and you get 252.78% or roughly two-and-a-half teams in the S16.  
• Etc.  

[medinabuckeye1]

NCAA Tournament performance by seed in the 36 Tournaments from 1985-2021:
#1 seeds:

• 143/144 won their opener against #16.  
• 123/143 won their second round game against #8/9 to make the S16.  
• 100/123 won their S16 game against #4/5/12/13 to make the E8.  
• 60/100 won their E8 game against #2/3/6/7/10/11/14/15 to make the F4.  
• 37/60 won their F4 game to make the NC.  
• 23/37 won the NC.  

#2 seeds:

• 135/144 won their opener against #15.  
• 91/135 won their second round game against #7/10 to make the S16.  
• 65/91 won their S16 game against #3/6/11/14 to make the E8.  
• 29/65 won their E8 game against #1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16 to make the F4.  
• 12/29 won their F4 game to make the NC.  
• 5/12 won the NC.  

#3 seeds:

• 122/144 won their opener against #14.  
• 75/122 won their second round game against #6/11 to make the S16.  
• 37/75 won their S16 game against #2/7/10/15 to make the E8.  
• 17/37 won their E8 game against #1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16 to make the F4.  
• 11/17 won their F4 game to make the NC.  
• 4/11 won the NC.  

#4 seeds:

• 113/144 won their opener against #13.  
• 67/113 won their second round game against #5/12 to make the S16.  
• 21/67 won their S16 game against #1/8/9/16 to make the E8.  
• 13/21 won their E8 game against #2/3/6/7/10/11/14/15 to make the F4.  
• 3/13 won their F4 game to make the NC.  
• 1/3 won the NC.  

#5 seeds:

• 93/144 won their opener against #12.  
• 49/93 won their second round game against #4/13 to make the S16.  
• 9/49 won their S16 game against #1/8/9/16 to make the E8.  
• 7/9 won their E8 game against #2/3/6/7/10/11/14/15 to make the F4.  
• 3/7 won their F4 game to make the NC.  
• ZERO won the NC.  

#6 seeds:

• 90/144 won their opener against #11.  
• 43/90 won their second round game against #3/14 to make the S16.  
• 15/43 won their S16 game against #2/7/10/15 to make the E8.  
• 3/15 won their E8 game against #1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16 to make the F4.  
• 2/3 won their F4 game to make the NC.  
• 1/2 won the NC.  

#7 seeds:

• 87/144 won their opener against #10.  
• 28/87 won their second round game against #2/15 to make the S16.  
• 10/28 won their S16 game against #3/6/11/14 to make the E8.  
• 3/10 won their E8 game against #1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16 to make the F4.  
• 1/4 won their F4 game to make the NC.  
• 1/1 won the NC.  

#8 seeds:

• 70/144 won their opener against #9.  
• 14/70 won their second round game against #1 (all #1 because the one #16 to knock off a #1 played a #9) in the second round to make the S16.  
• 8/15 won their S16 game against #4/5/12/13 to make the E8.  
• 5/8 won their E8 game against #2/3/6/7/10/11/14/15 to make the F4.  
• 3/5 won their F4 game to make the NC.  
• 1/3 won the NC.  

#9 seeds:

• 74/144 won their opener against #8.  
• 7/74 won their second round game (six against #1, one against #16) to make the S16.  
• 4/7 won their S16 game against #4/5/12/13 to make the E8.  
• 1/4 won their E8 game to make the F4.  
• No #9 seed or lower has ever won a F4 game.  

#10 seeds:

• 57/144 won their opener against #7.  
• 23/57 won their second round game against #2/15 to make the S16.  
• 8/23 won their S16 game against #3/6/11/14 to make the E8.  
• 1/8 won their E8 game against #1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16 to make the F4.  

#11 seeds:

• 54/144 won their opener against #6.  
• 24/54 won their second round game against #3/14 to make the S16.  
• 9/24 won their S16 game against #2/7/10/15 to make the E8.  
• 5/9 won their E8 game against #1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16 to make the F4.  

#12 seeds:

• 51/144 won their opener against #5.  
• 22/51 won their second round game against #4/13 to make the S16.  
• 2/22 won their S16 game against #1/8/9/16 to make the E8.  
• No #12 seed or lower has ever won an E8 game.  

#13 seeds:

• 31/144 won their opener against #4.  
• 6/31 won their second round game against #5/12 to make the S16.  
• No #13 seed or lower has ever won a S16 game.  

#14 seeds:

• 22/144 won their opener against #3.  
• 2/22 won their second round game against #6/11 to make the S16.  

#15 seeds:

• 9/144 won their opener against #2.  
• 2/9 won their second round game against #7/10 to make the S16.  

#16 seeds:

• 1/144 won their opener against #1.  
• The one that made the second round lost to a #9 seed.  

[Benthere2]

wow all that stats would make me dizzy
all i can say watching them is that if they get an injury or two they will drop fast and hard

if they stay healthy and get on a hot streak they will win a game or two they are not supposed to win.  

last night they has 28 or so turn overs?  but they were very hot from 3 early and built a lead up.  Coach played true freshmen the last 2-3 minutes and they gave up a 16 point lead and held on for an 8 point game that wasnt that close even with all the turn overs

they play a tough defense and all can shot the ball so when one is cold another might be hot enough to win 

but again if they get an injury it is all over they are not deep at all

[bayareabadger]

Drop Wisconsin low. I dislike expectations