2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[medinabuckeye1]

I don't normally do mid-weekend let alone mid-day updates to our projections but there have been a lot of changes since I last updated and the projected finish is pretty wild so here goes, projected final standings/BTT seeds:

• 14-6/23-7 Wisconsin
• 14-6/25-6 Purdue
• 14-6/22-9 Illinois
• 14-6/21-8 Ohio State
• 13-7/22-9 Michigan State
• 12-8/18-12 Rutgers
• 12-8/18-12 Michigan
• 11-9/21-10 Iowa
• 10-10/19-11 Indiana
• 7-13/12-16 Penn State (wins tie over NU based on H2H, won in Evanston)
• 7-13/14-15 Northwestern
• 6-14/14-17 Maryland
• 5-15/14-15 Minnesota
• 1-19/7-24 Nebraska

Tiebreaker for the 14-6 teams:
The first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H where:

• UW is 3-2 (no home game against IL, won at PU)
• PU is 3-2 (no game in Columbus, won at IL, lost at home to UW)
• IL is 2-2 (no games at tOSU or UW, lost at home to PU)
• tOSU is 1-3 (no home games against PU or IL)

Thus, IL is the #3 seed and tOSU is the #4 seed while UW and PU move to the next step:

The second tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the league (or next best) which in this case is MSU where these two are projected to be:

• 1-1 UW, won in E Lansing, lost at home
• 0-1 PU, no home game

Thus, UW would get the #1 seed and PU would get the #2 seed


Tiebreaker for the 12-8 teams:
The first tiebreaker is H2H but Rutgers already won the game in Piscataway and is projected to lose the game in Ann Arbor so we move to step 2:

The second tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the league which is determined BEFORE breaking their tie so you have to look at Michigans' and Rutgers' records against the combination of UW, IL, PU, and tOSU which is projected to be:

• 5-2 RU:  Does not play at tOSU, won at UW
• 3-4 M:  Does not host UW

Thus, the match-ups at the BTT in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:

• #11 Northwestern vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
• #12 Maryland vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN

Thursday, March 10, 2022:

• #5 Michigan State vs UMD/MN, 230 BTN
• #6 Rutgers vs NU/UNL, 9 BTN
• #7 Michigan vs #10 Penn State, 630 BTN
• #8 Iowa vs #9 Indiana, noon BTN

Friday, March 11, 2022:

• #1 Wisconsin vs IA/IU, noon BTN
• #2 Purdue vs M/PSU, 630 BTN
• #3 Illinois vs RU/NU/UNL, 9 BTN
• #4 Ohio State vs MSU/UMD/MN, 230 BTN

Saturday, March 12, 2022:

• UW/IA/IU vs tOSU/MSU/UMD/MN, 1 CBS
• PU/M/PSU vs IL/RU/NU/UNL, 330 CBS

Sunday, March 13, 2022:

• UW/IA/IU/tOSU/MSU/UMD/MN vs PU/M/PSU/IL/RU/NU/UNL, 330 CBS

[medinabuckeye1]

My thoughts on Rutgers' bubble situation:

They are currently 9-5/15-9 with plenty of quality/Q1 wins but held back by three dreadfully bad losses.  We project them to finish 3-3 (win home games against IL, UW, PSU; lose road games at PU, M, IU) so they would end up 12-8/18-12 with a SLEW of quality/Q1 wins and still held back by those three bad losses. 

FWIW, so long as they win the home game against PSU I think the other games are basically interchangeable so they can trade a road win for a home loss. 

12-8 in the B1G would normally be an obviously tournament team but normal 12-8 B1G teams don't have losses to DePaul, Lafayette (at home no less), and UMASS on their resume. 

As showed above we project them to be the #6 seed so their BTT opener would be against the #11/14 winner.  I think they HAVE to win that not so much because they need the win as because they can't afford another bad loss and losing to the #11 or #14 B1G team would be a bad loss. 

So beating the 11/14 winner would get them to 19-12 heading into a game against #3.  Right now that projects to be Illinois but it really doesn't matter, #3 will be a very good team so a loss wouldn't really hurt.  My question is would they need the win? 

I'm fairly certain that getting to the weekend in Indianapolis would get Rutgers in but I feel like beating the 11/14 then losing to #3 would leave them right on the edge at 19-13 with lots of good wins and three BAD losses.  A lot of it depends on how the committee evaluates things.  If the committee has any recency bias that will obviously help the Scarlet Knights immensely because on December 12 they were 5-5/1-1 with all three of those BAD losses already and since then they've gone 10-4/8-4 and looked VERY MUCH like a Tournament team. 

Are there any Rutgers fans on here with thoughts?  What about @JerseyTerrapin , you at least live in the area.  Anyone else?  

[medinabuckeye1]

As an Ohio State fan I'd love to believe that this result is an indication of Ohio State's strength or at least Michigan's weakness but in reality I do not think either is the case. I think this result is just because this is Michigan's third game in five days. Michigan is 3-16 from three and, IMHO that is largely a product of tired legs.

[MaximumSam]

As an Ohio State fan I'd love to believe that this result is an indication of Ohio State's strength or at least Michigan's weakness but in reality I do not think either is the case. I think this result is just because this is Michigan's third game in five days. Michigan is 3-16 from three and, IMHO that is largely a product of tired legs.

I'm just happy to see them finally get a road win over a decent team. As far as tiredness, I dunno, this is what Michigan has been all season, outside of a couple games where they were shot really well.

[Brutus Buckeye]

[bayareabadger]

I'm just happy to see them finally get a road win over a decent team. As far as tiredness, I dunno, this is what Michigan has been all season, outside of a couple games where they were shot really well.

I don't know what the hell to do with OSU. When they're one, they're mighty. But they seem to have weird runs of being off. 

Defense is bad, backcourt is a freshman and senior transfer. Liddell is Liddell, which can be up and down on defense. And then there's that weird mix of forwards. 

They're good, but how good?

[bayareabadger]

My thoughts on Rutgers' bubble situation:

...

12-8 in the B1G would normally be an obviously tournament team but normal 12-8 B1G teams don't have losses to DePaul, Lafayette (at home no less), and UMASS on their resume. 

...

So beating the 11/14 winner would get them to 19-12 heading into a game against #3.  Right now that projects to be Illinois but it really doesn't matter, #3 will be a very good team so a loss wouldn't really hurt.  My question is would they need the win? 

I'm fairly certain that getting to the weekend in Indianapolis would get Rutgers in but I feel like beating the 11/14 then losing to #3 would leave them right on the edge at 19-13 with lots of good wins and three BAD losses.  A lot of it depends on how the committee evaluates things.  If the committee has any recency bias that will obviously help the Scarlet Knights immensely because on December 12 they were 5-5/1-1 with all three of those BAD losses already and since then they've gone 10-4/8-4 and looked VERY MUCH like a Tournament team.

Are there any Rutgers fans on here with thoughts?  What about @JerseyTerrapin , you at least live in the area.  Anyone else? 

I THINK that 18-13 makes it. It's pretty hard to get to 12-8 in the Big Ten and not make it unless the conference is a mess like 2017-18.

Those losses are BAD, but I think the set of wins they need to get to 18-13 are enough. They might be an 11 seed, but you gotta put 36 at-large teams in. And it gets LEAN at the end. Big conference teams are holding more of those spots than it felt like historically, and some it's not like the Pac 12 or SEC are usually covering themselves in glory.

But, Rutgers does have to get to 18-13 or better. If they're 19-13, I'd say close to a lock. 

[ELA]

Well, our reservation is Saturday night, so it would just cut our Saturday afternoon a little shorter, but give us more time in the morning to get there.  It's increasingly clear that the in person fans are an afterthought to TV

Fortunately, I bought my tickets through Ohio State, rather than through StubHub, so I'm hoping they can just switch them to the Iowa game. Iowa game. But worst case scenario, they've offered me the option to cancel. So I can cancel them, and then just buy Iowa tickets. StubHub doesn't offer you a refund option unless the game is actually cancelled

[medinabuckeye1]

Fortunately, I bought my tickets through Ohio State, rather than through StubHub, so I'm hoping they can just switch them to the Iowa game. Iowa game. But worst case scenario, they've offered me the option to cancel. So I can cancel them, and then just buy Iowa tickets. StubHub doesn't offer you a refund option unless the game is actually cancelled

Good deal, hope it works out for you and your little Ohio State fan.

On that note, while it is maybe a bit annoying for a Spartan to have a Buckeye, that isn't THAT bad. How do his Wolverine Grandparents feel?

[medinabuckeye1]

I don't know what the hell to do with OSU. When they're one, they're mighty. But they seem to have weird runs of being off.

Defense is bad, backcourt is a freshman and senior transfer. Liddell is Liddell, which can be up and down on defense. And then there's that weird mix of forwards.

They're good, but how good?

Ya know, it *FEELS* like Ohio State is up and down but oddly, per our tier system they were the only team in the league with no upsets before they beat Michigan yesterday and even that, I think, had more to do it being Michigan's third game in five days and them not having the legs for long shots.

[ELA]

Good deal, hope it works out for you and your little Ohio State fan.

On that note, while it is maybe a bit annoying for a Spartan to have a Buckeye, that isn't THAT bad. How do his Wolverine Grandparents feel?

They wonder where they went wrong

[medinabuckeye1]

Good news for Purdue:
They just had I think a 19-0 run.

Bad news for Purdue:
They needed that to gain a one point lead over Maryland at home.

[bayareabadger]

I think I figured out Rutgers. 

Against much of the non-conference schedule, they played like a team set to battle Nebraska for last. 

Against the bottom third of the conference, they played like a solid 11th place team. 

Against the top 2/3rds of the league, they play like a Big Ten champ.

See. Figured out. 

[medinabuckeye1]

I think I figured out Rutgers.

Against much of the non-conference schedule, they played like a team set to battle Nebraska for last.

Against the bottom third of the conference, they played like a solid 11th place team.

Against the top 2/3rds of the league, they play like a Big Ten champ.

See. Figured out.

Yep, that is it.

Makes no sense whatsoever but you've got it.