I will continue the drumbeat that conference titles and tourney advancement are fun and great, they are awful measures for judging the coach. The team was top 15 the last two years and likely would have been again this year if not for some rotten injury luck. That's not something you throw away willingly if you want to keep your job.
This is just silly. If you are not judging your coach by the performance of his teams on the court then there is nothing to judge him by.
I'll add that, to an extent, I get where you are coming from and, to an extent, I agree. The #2 seed loss in the first round doesn't *REALLY* bother me as a one-off thing. The home loss to a horrible Nebraska team doesn't really bother me as a one-off thing.
I'm a statistics guy. You are right to the extent that in a given game or a given season things go sideways. There hasn't been an undefeated team since I was in diapers because the better team doesn't win every game. By extension that also means that the better team doesn't always advance in the tournament and the best team doesn't always win the league.
That said, time balances these things out. If Ohio State has the best team in the B1G next year they will not necessarily win the league but if they are in the top two or three for the next four years straight they are bound to win a league title in there somewhere. Here is what Holtmann's teams have done at Ohio State:
- 25-9/15-3, tied for 2nd/3rd in the B1G, one game out of first. Two seed in the BTT, lost their opener. Five seed in the NCAA, beat #12, lost to #4.
- 20-15/8-12, tied for 8th/9th in the B1G, eight games out of first. Eight seed in the BTT, beat #9 and lost to #1. Eleven seed in the NCAA, beat #6, lost to #3.
- 21-10/11-9, tied for 5th/6th/7th/8th in the B1G, three games out of first. Seven seed in the BTT, BTT and NCAA cancelled.
- 21-10/12-8, 5th in the B1G, three-and-a-half games out of first. Five seed in the BTT, made it to the CG and lost. Two seed in the NCAA, lost to #15.
- 19-11/12-8 (so far), tied for 4th/5th/6th in the B1G, three games out of first. Six seed in the BTT, lost to #11. NCAA TBD but will likely be an 8/9 seed and see another first weekend exit.
We are paying Holtmann MILLIONS of dollars a year to coach BB and we haven't finished within three games of the B1G Title since his first year (Matta's recruits). We haven't been to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament in a decade.
Tournament performance relative to seed:
The data-set is pretty limited here with just three completed tournaments but Holtmann's teams have been a #5 seed, a #11 seed, and a #2 seed. Those seeds, on average, will achieve:
- 1.95 first round wins. Holtmann's teams have two so he is up a little.
- 1.14 S16 appearances. Holtmann's teams have ZERO so he is way down here.
- 0.58 E8 appearances. Holtmann's teams have ZERO so he is down here but could catch up in one year.
- 0.28 F4 appearances. Holtmann's teams have ZEOR so he is down here but it rounds to zero anyway.
- 0.10 NC appearances. Holtmann's teams have ZERO so he is down but not by much.
- 0.03 NC's. Holtmann's teams have ZERO so he is down but not by much.
Note on the above:
I don't put too much stock in this because the coach is responsible for the season which generates the seed. If he has a crappy season (2018-19) and gets a low seed (#11) but then pulls off an upset the upset is nice but he is also responsible for getting the low seed due to the crappy season in the first place. Conversely if he has a nice season (2020-21) and gets a high seed but then gets upset the upset sucks but he is also responsible for getting the high seed due to the nice season in the first place.
The loss as a #2 seed last year was Holtmann's only first round NCAA loss so far and my point about statistics is basically that if you simply traded 2021's and 2019's Tournament performances such that his teams went 1-1 as a #2 seed and 0-1 as a #11 it looks more like what you would expect. Ie, the first round loss as a #2 seed sucked but the first round win as a #11 seed was nice and they somewhat cancel out so who cares.
That first round loss as a #2 seed would/will be a lot easier of a pill to swallow if his #5 seed in 2018 or his #11 seed in 2019 or his #8/9 seed this year had made/makes it to the S16.
That, however, is what we have NOT seen. We haven't seen a Holtmann team win the B1G or make it to the second weekend of the NCAA. I'm not asking for that EVERY year but we are talking about a guy who has now had five attempts (granted only three wrt the NCAA since 2020 was cancelled and 2022 hasn't happened yet).
My view, and Ohio State's historical averages back this up, is that it is NOT unreasonable for the AD at Ohio State to expect better. We need to see league titles and/or S16 appearances and if those continually fail to materialize for whatever reason then a change needs to be made.
I'm not exactly advocating for a change to be made RIGHT NOW, but Holtmann's seat should be warm. You can't collect MILLIONS of dollars a year to coach at a program with Ohio State's resources, never win a league title, never get out of the first weekend of the NCAA, and expect to keep your job indefinitely.