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Topic: 2020 Simulated College Football Season

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ELA

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2020 Simulated College Football Season
« on: August 24, 2020, 04:03:24 PM »
I said half-jokingly back in May that I'd have to sim the season if we got to that point.  In May that seemed laughable.  Yet, here we are.  At best we'll get an extremely diluted season of partial schedules, partial participation, and partial attendance.  But quite possibly, we get nothing.

So no matter where we go from here, I'll sim out the season as it was intended to be played.  I'll sim the games I can (ideally 15 or so per week), and use a mix of FPI/SP+ to sim the remaining games.  I'll use a weighted probability to just sim the game one time, so that upsets still can happen.

I was expecting the opt out teams to be omitted from the AP Poll.  They weren't, but I don't know if voters factored that into their vote or not, so I'll use the coaches poll, released when we still thought everyone was at least going to try to play...


  • Clemson
  • OHIO STATE
  • Alabama
  • Georgia
  • LSU
  • Oklahoma
  • PENN STATE
  • Florida
  • Oregon
  • Notre Dame
  • Auburn
  • WISCONSIN
  • Texas A&M
  • Texas
  • MICHIGAN
  • Oklahoma State
  • USC
  • MINNESOTA
  • North Carolina
  • Utah
  • Central Florida
  • Cincinnati
  • IOWA
  • Virginia Tech
  • Iowa State


Season kicks off Saturday afternoon with Notre Dame playing Navy in Dublin
« Last Edit: September 03, 2020, 11:37:15 PM by ELA »
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2020 What-If College Football Season
« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2020, 05:30:40 PM »
You should post them on you tube. Full game sims
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2020 What-If College Football Season
« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2020, 05:36:32 PM »
I'm wanting to do the same with Whoa Nellie.  I think a 2020 season set, if done properly, would be a big seller.  

Most of it could be done with a preseason mag, honestly.  Although determining who would get the 4th-most carries, 6th-most receptions, etc would be tough.  

And yards per _____ numbers.....when, say, a backup RB from last year is now the starter, his yards per carry may decrease with the larger load...but they could increase as well.  

I'd need time to do it, and I'm very short on that now.  Thanks to covid, I spend more time on teachery work than I did with in-person learning.

Fun.
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: 2020 What-If College Football Season
« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2020, 05:58:12 PM »
Quote from: ELA on August 24, 2020, 04:03:24 PM
I said half-jokingly back in May that I'd have to sim the season if we got to that point.  In May that seemed laughable.  Yet, here we are.  At best we'll get an extremely diluted season of partial schedules, partial participation, and partial attendance.  But quite possibly, we get nothing.

So no matter where we go from here, I'll sim out the season as it was intended to be played.  I'll sim the games I can (ideally 15 or so per week), and use a mix of FPI/SP+ to sim the remaining games.  I'll use a weighted probability to just sim the game one time, so that upsets still can happen.

I was expecting the opt out teams to be omitted from the AP Poll.  They weren't, but I don't know if voters factored that into their vote or not, so I'll use the coaches poll, released when we still thought everyone was at least going to try to play...


  • Clemson
  • OHIO STATE
  • Alabama
  • Georgia
  • LSU
  • Oklahoma
  • PENN STATE
  • Florida
  • Oregon
  • Notre Dame
  • Auburn
  • WISCONSIN
  • Texas A&M
  • Texas
  • MICHIGAN
  • Oklahoma State
  • USC
  • MINNESOTA
  • North Carolina
  • Utah
  • Central Florida
  • Cincinnati
  • IOWA
  • Virginia Tech
  • Iowa State


Season kicks off Saturday afternoon with Notre Dame playing Navy in Dublin
Thank you for doing it ELA.  A gem in an otherwise field of manure for us.
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FearlessF

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Re: 2020 What-If College Football Season
« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2020, 06:14:20 PM »
and this poll shows the Big Ten as the strongest conference~
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2020 What-If College Football Season
« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2020, 06:54:54 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on August 24, 2020, 06:14:20 PM
and this poll shows the Big Ten as the strongest conference~
I think it shows the SEC as the strongest, followed by the B1G then a BIG dropoff, then the ACC, B12, and PAC, then another BIG dropoff, then the AAC:

What I've done here is ranked the six conferences that have ranked teams by their highest ranked team's ranking compared to the other five then their second highest ranked team's ranking compared to the other five, etc.  
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FearlessF

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Re: 2020 What-If College Football Season
« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2020, 07:10:37 PM »
well, this is the Big Ten board, so I disagree  :)
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ELA

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Re: 2020 What-If College Football Season
« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2020, 08:04:58 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on August 24, 2020, 05:36:32 PM
I'm wanting to do the same with Whoa Nellie.  I think a 2020 season set, if done properly, would be a big seller. 

Most of it could be done with a preseason mag, honestly.  Although determining who would get the 4th-most carries, 6th-most receptions, etc would be tough. 

And yards per _____ numbers.....when, say, a backup RB from last year is now the starter, his yards per carry may decrease with the larger load...but they could increase as well. 

I'd need time to do it, and I'm very short on that now.  Thanks to covid, I spend more time on teachery work than I did with in-person learning.

Fun.
I'd buy that.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2020 What-If College Football Season
« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2020, 11:06:55 PM »
It'd basically be a preseason set - predictive.....and with no actual season to correct them, they'd simply become the 2020 season set.  

I have to get some big orders out so I can toil with it.  I hadn't had an order in a few days and was looking forward to getting caught up.  But someone ordered all of the 2019 Big Ten teams today.  :)



And looking at the AP poll, the SEC is obviously #1 - 6 teams in the top 13.  I think we'll all squirm and want to club a baby seal in week 2 when a bunch of schools drop out of the rankings.  This is all such a mess.
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ELA

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Re: 2020 What-If College Football Season
« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2020, 11:27:30 PM »
Also, I'll update the poll weekly, but I am looking for input.  Hopefully lots of it.

The only thing is that we won't have MOV for games I don't sim on the video game,.so that sort of screws with things.
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 What-If College Football Season
« Reply #10 on: August 25, 2020, 09:57:24 AM »
UGA should be able to beat Arky.
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ELA

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Re: 2020 What-If College Football Season
« Reply #11 on: August 28, 2020, 02:38:00 PM »
Weekend schedule


TIMETV
.SATURDAY.
3:30#10 Notre Dame vs. Navy @ Dublin, IrelandABC
6:00Marshall at East Carolina
7:00Hawaii at ArizonaESPN
Southern Illinois at Kansas
8:00Idaho State at New Mexico
8:30California at UNLVCBSSN
9:00New Mexico State at UCLAP12N
UC Davis at Nevada

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FearlessF

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Re: 2020 What-If College Football Season
« Reply #12 on: August 28, 2020, 02:51:56 PM »
awesome, I have a 9am tee time saturday, so should be in front of the TV by the time the Navy game kicks
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CWSooner

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Re: 2020 What-If College Football Season
« Reply #13 on: August 28, 2020, 06:22:06 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on August 28, 2020, 02:51:56 PM
awesome, I have a 9am tee time saturday, so should be in front of the TV by the time the Navy game kicks
How do you figure that?
If kickoff is in Dublin at 3:30 p.m., it's going to be (IIRC) 9:30 a.m. in Iowa when that happens.
Maybe I'm mis-figuring something, like how long it takes you to play 18 holes.
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