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Topic: Misfits Thread

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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8022 on: September 02, 2020, 10:14:15 AM »
I expect a close election.  I don't really care much who wins really.  I think four more years of Trump would be more entertaining, so there is that.

On the other hand, Biden is entertaining in a different way, to the extent he would actually be President in real terms.
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longhorn320

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8023 on: September 02, 2020, 10:14:28 AM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on September 02, 2020, 10:11:23 AM
I think the single biggest thing, that wouldn't be that difficult, is if Trump was able to make a consistent effort at being the president. You saw the convention that was clearly the goal. But he's already back to prattling about secret airplanes and soup warriors, not the type of stuff that is very appealing to someone who could be swayed.  But it hasn't happened in years so it's tough to think it will happen.
just wait MS its going to be magic

and again Biden will never debate so thats also going to be a factor
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MaximumSam

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8024 on: September 02, 2020, 10:32:26 AM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 02, 2020, 10:14:28 AM
just wait MS its going to be magic

and again Biden will never debate so thats also going to be a factor
Oh I'm making no predictions, other than no one thinks Trump can win the popular vote, so he's resorting to the wing and prayer of threading the needle through the hot mess that is the electoral college
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longhorn320

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8025 on: September 02, 2020, 10:38:50 AM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on September 02, 2020, 10:32:26 AM
Oh I'm making no predictions, other than no one thinks Trump can win the popular vote, so he's resorting to the wing and prayer of threading the needle through the hot mess that is the electoral college
no prizes are given for winning the popular vote

if there were then Trump would be campaigning completely differently
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MaximumSam

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8026 on: September 02, 2020, 10:43:01 AM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 02, 2020, 10:38:50 AM
no prizes are given for winning the popular vote

if there were then Trump would be campaigning completely differently
Sadly yes. Probably governing in a different way as well
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847badgerfan

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8027 on: September 02, 2020, 10:50:10 AM »
It's all Trump's fault.

Except, oops.


Think back a few years ago, to U.S. Rep Maxine Waters, the California Democrat, trying to take things to the edge of anarchy, with angry confrontations, and use chaos as a ladder.

“If you see anybody from that (Trump) Cabinet in a restaurant, in a department store, at a gasoline station, you get out and you create a crowd, and you push back on them, and you tell them they’re not welcome anymore, anywhere,” Waters said in 2018.

Democrats didn’t criticize her. She was their hero. What she wanted grew. Just the other day, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul and his wife were surrounded by an angry Jacobin mob on the streets of Washington and much of the country saw it.




https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/john-kass/ct-trump-kenosha-kass-20200902-zaajb25zijeendcxngfsbvmwya-story.html
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U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8028 on: September 02, 2020, 11:00:21 AM »
I think Trump COULD win the popular vote this time.  I imagine I'm hardly alone in that.

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longhorn320

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8029 on: September 02, 2020, 11:00:25 AM »
my wife and I are both voting absentee this year so I sent in our request for two absentee voter applications

we will need to fill those out and send them in to receive our absentee ballots 

we have two cats who want to also vote so I need to send their requests also I'll do that tomorrow

the state is currently threatening to sue Harris County to keep them from just sending out blank voter 

ballots to 2 million residents of Harris County

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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8030 on: September 02, 2020, 11:02:05 AM »
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8031 on: September 02, 2020, 11:03:40 AM »
If these numbers give you a sense of deja vu, it may be because they’re very similar to our final forecast in 2016 … when Trump also had a 29 percent chance of winning! (And Hillary Clinton had a 71 percent chance.) So if you’re not taking a 29 percent chance as a serious possibility, I’m not sure there’s much we can say at this point, although there’s a Zoom poker game that I’d be happy to invite you to.

One last parallel to 2016 — when some models gave Clinton as high as a 99 percent chance of winning — is that FiveThirtyEight’s forecast tends to be more conservative than others. (For a more complete description of our model, including how it is handling some complications related to COVID-19, please see our methodology guide.)

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MaximumSam

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8032 on: September 02, 2020, 11:04:44 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 11:00:21 AM
I think Trump COULD win the popular vote this time.  I imagine I'm hardly alone in that.


Based on what?
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8033 on: September 02, 2020, 11:05:37 AM »
Our model says there’s an 81 percent chance that Biden wins the popular vote — compared to his 71 percent chance in the Electoral College. That means there’s about a 10 percent chance that Trump again wins the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote. (Conversely, the model puts the chance that Biden wins the Electoral College but loses the popular vote at only around 1 in 750.)

That reflects the fact that the tipping-point state — the state that would provide the decisive 270th electoral vote — is somewhat to the right of the national popular vote. More specifically, our projection as of Tuesday had Biden winning the popular vote by 6.3 percentage points nationally, but winning the tipping-point state, Wisconsin, by a smaller margin, 4.5 percentage points:

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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8034 on: September 02, 2020, 11:07:20 AM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on September 02, 2020, 11:04:44 AM
Based on what?
Probabilities.  If you think there is a 100% chance Trump loses the PV, you are holding an opinion quite different from many "experts".

Obviously, it cannot be a 100% chance, that would be illogical to presume.  You might say 95%, or even 99%.

The 19% chance 538 holds earlier in August is still one chance in five obviously.
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MaximumSam

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8035 on: September 02, 2020, 11:19:00 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 11:07:20 AM
Probabilities.  If you think there is a 100% chance Trump loses the PV, you are holding an opinion quite different from many "experts".

Obviously, it cannot be a 100% chance, that would be illogical to presume.  You might say 95%, or even 99%.

The 19% chance 538 holds earlier in August is still one chance in five obviously.
Roughly similar to the chance South Carolina would beat Clemson last year. Don't recall too many picks for the Cocks last year
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