Idk, looking at the top programs in the last 20 years, it simply looks like the south and west are taking over. I think we may have hit the population tipping point that we've discussed on here before, a few years back.
There's still more people in the north, but it may have ticked past a certain point that it no longer matters.
Look at the best P5 programs by win% the last 20 years:
1. Ohio St
2. Oklahoma
3. LSU
4. Georgia
5. Alabama
6. Clemson
7. Oregon
8. TCU
9. USC
10. Wisconsin
11. Florida
12. Texas
13. Virginia Tech
14. FSU
15. Auburn
.
19. Miami
20. Michigan
21. Penn St
26. Nebraska
27. Notre Dame
33. Tennessee
------------------------
Look at the same thing, just 10 years before (so a 10-year overlap):
1. Florida
2. Ohio St
3. Nebraska
4. FSU
5. Miami
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Michigan
9. Virginia Tech
10. Penn St
11. Georgia
12. Oklahoma
13. USC
14. Auburn
15. Kansas St
.
16. Oregon
18. Wisconsin
19. Notre Dame
20. LSU
22. Alabama
23. Clemson
.
While the Florida schools have fallen off some, Nebraska and Tennessee have fallen off a cliff. Michigan and Penn St have fallen some, and all of them have been replaced by Wisconsin, Oregon, Alabama, LSU, and Clemson.
ND wasn't good enough to fall off a cliff
In the 10 years before this (with overlap), LSU, Oregon, and Wisconsin were irrelevant. Washington was 9th and they've fallen off way worse than even Tennessee has. USC didn't matter during that stretch, and Texas and OU were outside the top 15 as well.
But the former staples Penn St, Michigan, Tennessee, and Nebraska are basically gone. As they hop from HC to HC, the deeper they fall and will have to climb out. The harder it will be to find that necessarily great HC, who'll be getting offers from better programs. Alabama was 10th in this 3rd rolling era, so they swooned and came back stronger than ever before. Will one of these listed do the same?