header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Misfits Thread

 (Read 397781 times)

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71094
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #686 on: March 10, 2020, 11:34:41 AM »
DJIA just went red.  This could be another dead cat.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71094
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #687 on: March 10, 2020, 11:39:27 AM »
I disagree. A bounce after a 2000 pt down move was to be expected.
The bounce was rather short lived, but of course it could come back.  DJIA down 150.


iahawk15

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 648
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #688 on: March 10, 2020, 11:45:17 AM »
The bounce was rather short lived, but of course it could come back.  DJIA down 150.


Yep, I said we're going lower in the near-term.

Intraday? I went long 5 mins ago, but will dump if SPY breaks below 273.30.

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25026
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #689 on: March 10, 2020, 11:46:05 AM »
DJIA just went red.  This could be another dead cat.
Very predictable. 
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71094
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #690 on: March 10, 2020, 12:03:45 PM »
Now the DJIA is up[ 250.  If traders can predict this movement, I'm impressed indeed.  I can't.

iahawk15

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 648
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #691 on: March 10, 2020, 12:04:00 PM »
Yep, I said we're going lower in the near-term.

Intraday? I went long 5 mins ago, but will dump if SPY breaks below 273.30.
And closed it out for a small profit when SPY touched the 20 dma (5 min chart). Sitting in 96% cash right now.

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25026
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #692 on: March 10, 2020, 12:12:46 PM »
Unload your cash and buy BAX. Check back on it in 10 years.

Thank you.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71094
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #693 on: March 10, 2020, 12:13:02 PM »
Whoever writes these headlines for the various web sites is busy today, up down up down up down.... +323.

iahawk15

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 648
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #694 on: March 10, 2020, 12:18:07 PM »
Unload your cash and buy BAX. Check back on it in 10 years.

Thank you.
I'm good for now, continuing to make small bets off support / resistance levels while this market chops around. When volatility flattens out, or QE5 is announced, I'll get very long and only continue to actively trade ~10% of my portfolio.

Anyway, further discussion seems fruitless, so I'm checking out.

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25026
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #695 on: March 10, 2020, 12:31:36 PM »
Probably wise. I'm checked out too. I won't be looking at anything for the rest of today. Need to get some work done.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Riffraft

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1093
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #696 on: March 10, 2020, 02:04:37 PM »
We're seeing a lot of the same, although I believe at this time we haven't had any employee [even worldwide] test positive. We instituted travel bans for international, restricted company meetings over a certain size, and moved certain meetings which would normally require people to fly in to one site to be remote. I might have a meeting coming up the first week of April in Colorado, and it remains to be seen whether that will be changed to be remote instead--I know my wife doesn't want me to go.

Like you, I work from home primarily now (went from about 30-40% work from home to 90% once we got the puppy). For my role that's normal; it's a field role and most of my peers work from home as they don't live near an office. I just happen to be near a major office so I have a desk there. But just this past week they've been making sure that people in other roles have been validating all of their work-from-home capability (connectivity, VPN, etc) in case they get the order to start.

Personally I think some of the panic is a bit overblown. But that said, we're currently at 730 cases tested positive in the US and 26 deaths. That's 3.6%, and given that probably 500+ of those positive tests have occurred in the last 96 hours, I would expect the death rate just amongst those 730 patients to climb as some of those 730 won't recover. Granted, I'm sure there are some unreported cases where [younger, healthier] people are either having mild symptoms and not getting checked out, or might even be entirely asymptomatic. As @847badgerfan says, that 3.6% rate is only based upon known positive tested patients, and clearly doesn't include everyone at this point. But it's still higher than we'd like to see.

And of course, people stockpiling their bunkers are buying Costco, Target, Walmart etc out of toilet paper, water, cleaning supplies, etc. It's madness.
The deaths are almost exclusively over 80yo and in bad health

This is a chart that was put out by WHO 



Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71094
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #697 on: March 10, 2020, 02:11:11 PM »
I won't claim those figures are "wrong" exactly, but I don't trust them much either because of reporting errors.  Some folks may not have been tested for COVIC-19 and still be added to some list.  Reporting from places like Iran strike me as not very reliable.  I think it clear that older folks are hit harder, just as they are with flu.  And apparently some folks have contracted the illness and had no symptoms, though how anyone would know that without broad scale testing I have no idea.  If I get slightly ill I'm not going to get tested for it.

The specific percentages however strike me as very possibly wrong.

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12128
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #698 on: March 10, 2020, 02:46:24 PM »
I won't claim those figures are "wrong" exactly, but I don't trust them much either because of reporting errors.  Some folks may not have been tested for COVIC-19 and still be added to some list.  Reporting from places like Iran strike me as not very reliable.  I think it clear that older folks are hit harder, just as they are with flu.  And apparently some folks have contracted the illness and had no symptoms, though how anyone would know that without broad scale testing I have no idea.  If I get slightly ill I'm not going to get tested for it.

The specific percentages however strike me as very possibly wrong.
Yeah, I think this is one of those cases where I don't trust the percentages exactly, but that I think the broad picture they paint is accurate. I.e. that it is FAR disproportionately fatal as you increase in age. That is one way that it differs from the flu--the flu tends to hit the very young as well as the very old. COVID-19 appears to spare the very young as far as we can tell so far.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71094
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #699 on: March 10, 2020, 03:20:59 PM »
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/early-mortality-rates-covid-19-misleading-experts/story?id=69477312

I think broad trends are probably about right, as you note, but I don't trust any specific statistics at this point.  If indeed 80% of cases involve mild symptoms, people would be sick and have no clue they were infected, and not get tested of course, nor added to any database.  They could be infectious carriers.

The elderly nearly always suffer more from respiratory ailments for obvious reasons.  Whether this one is more biased against them is TBD, I suspect.

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.