2020 NFL Draft/Offseason thread

[OrangeAfroMan]

If you believe, as I do, that teams overdraft QBs, then we can't gauge a surplus until a decade down the road.  
These guys are 2 different things.  They're prospects first and then they are players.
A draft can be QB-heavy or have a surplus of WRs while they're still prospects.  But we won't know if a draft is actually either of those things until years later, when they're players.  

[FearlessF]

When I was a kid and dinosaurs roamed the Earth, teams seemed to have one QB for ages and ages.  Johnny U.  Bart Starr.  Y.A. Title.  Fran Tarkenton.  Roman Gabriel.  Manziel.  They personified their teams.  How good were those guys by modern standards?

I don't recall such a surplus of really good QBs coming out of CFB in one year either.

and back then, those QBs were referred to as Field Generals, they called the plays.

[Cincydawg]

Those QBs "back in the day" played a long time with little protections.  Why is that?  They were tough hombres?  DLs weren't as nasty?  More running?

[FearlessF]

the DLs were nasty

and the MLBs were worse

[Cincydawg]

Would you "guess" Joe Burrow is as close to a "sure thing" as we've seen in a while?  (Other than being a Bengal?)

[OrangeAfroMan]

It's hard to gauge how good Aikman actually was, because he had the best of everything around him and he didn't squander it.  So he wasn't bad, we can cross that off the list.  But name a QB and drop him into that offense - you could list A LOT of names before you start getting to some that wouldn't have succeeded. 
You're behind a great OL.  You're throwing to a bona-fide #1 WR.  You have good 2-3 WRs (Alvin Harper/Kelvin Martin/Kevin Williams).  You have a good TE.  You're handing the ball off to the all-time leading rusher. 
I'm not saying this is the case, but you could argue any QB who wasn't actively horrible could have won at least 1 SB with that offense around him.

The case FOR Aikman, is that he enjoyed all of the successes a guy in his position was set up to achieve.  Pro-Bowls, Super Bowls, and the Hall of Fame.  He did what he was supposed to do.

[OrangeAfroMan]

Those QBs "back in the day" played a long time with little protections.  Why is that?  They were tough hombres?  DLs weren't as nasty?  More running?

Far FAR fewer pass attempts.  

[OrangeAfroMan]

Would you "guess" Joe Burrow is as close to a "sure thing" as we've seen in a while?  (Other than being a Bengal?)

Not at all. 
He had those same WRs the year before and wasn't special.  I don't know how much to attribute to Brady coming in.  No one was talking about how great Burrow was a year ago. 
Now credit due to him, he did the things he did on the field - they happened.  But he had an NFL mind orchestrating things with top-flight athletes at a big-boy program.  He's not going to have those specific advantages in the NFL.  The DCs he'll face are legit.  The talent disparity is almost zero. 

Personally, I'd rather have Joe Brady than Joe Burrow.  And it didn't cost Carolina their top draft pick to get him.

[Cincydawg]

In 1973, he led the NFL with 3,219 yards and 23 touchdown passes, for which he was awarded the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award. As of the end of the 2016 NFL season, he still holds the Rams' career records for touchdown passes (154), passes attempted (3,313), and wins by a starting quarterback (74).

That is Roman Gabriel who started in 1962 (not as starting QB).  They didn't play as many games back then of course.  

[Cincydawg]

Tittle played in 179 games and attempted 3, 817 passes, 21 attempts per game.

[Cincydawg]

If Burrow is not as close to a sure thing as we've seen in a while (call it ten years), I'd pass on him.  Aside from Maziel, who was the best "sure thing" at QB in the past 20 years?

[Mdot21]

If Burrow is not as close to a sure thing as we've seen in a while (call it ten years), I'd pass on him.  Aside from Maziel, who was the best "sure thing" at QB in the past 20 years?

Manziel was never considered that.

Andrew Luck. Injuries derailed what could've been a HOF career.

[Cincydawg]

Guys, I keep mentioning Manziel for some levity.

EVeryone I knew saw him as a sure fire bust.

[OrangeAfroMan]

I'd go
1. Luck
2. Stafford
3. Palmer

Not an easy exercise, because you have to ignore what they did in the NFL.  I know some of us are utterly incapable of the task.