2020 NFL Draft/Offseason thread

[Mdot21]

Are those QBs winners because they are exceptional QBs or because they have an exceptional supporting cast?

I GUESS the worst starting QB in the NFL is an exceptional QB by other metrics.  Maybe he simply looks bad because he needs an extra 0.2 seconds to pass, or a better offensive scheme, or something, maybe a better defense.  I wouldn't say top QBs are "dime a dozen", but then look how many are available this year who looked to be pretty good. 

I think Joe Burrow on a crappy team will be a crappy QB, while Jake Fromm on a very good team might well be a winning QB.  I pick on Jake because his raw talent is not the sames as it is with the others.

Aside from Roethlisberger, those QBs haven’t had all-star casts around them. They have been able to raise the level of play of the players around them. Seattle, GB, and NE had mediocre talent around their QBs forever and Brady, Rodgers, and Wilson were still able to lift the play of the players around them and get the max out of the guys they had. Roethlisberger on the other hand almost always had elite weapons at his disposal.

A great NFL QB can cover a lot of warts on his team.

[Mdot21]

have to wonder what Belichik rejects Bob Quinn and clown show coach Matty P will do with the #3 pick in the draft. Could’ve drafted Jeff Okudah and paired him with Darius Slay to have a great CB tandem. But nope. Traded the best defensive player on their team away for a ham sandwich.

Still think the most sense would be to draft Tua and trade Stafford to the Chargers or Patriots or any team that is desperate for a QB.

Time to blow this thing up, let Stafford go to a real franchise, get the QB of the future at a cheap price in Tua, fire the Belichik rejects, then hopefully get a good player with the guaranteed top 10 pick next year.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Is 18 fumbles (8 FR, 4 SO, 6 JR) in 968 touches a lot?

According to this, they consider averaging a fumble in <75 touches to be "red flag" territory.

https://www.upi.com/Sports_News/NFL/2018/02/11/2018-NFL-Draft-Fumble-rates-for-all-running-back-prospects/7311518380025/

18 in 968 is once every 52 touches. So yeah, I think that's considered a lot.

[MaximumSam]

I find it interesting how a top level CFB player might get drafted fairly late, second or third round anyway.  I'm also surprised somewhat that even Cleveland would draft Manziel, that one had mistake written all over it from the start, but it was Cleveland.

In this day of "analytics" and whatnot, you'd perhaps think they would be more, um, efficient. 

I've noted many times my idea would be to focus on the OL and DL and build from there if I had a bad team.  The idea that Joe Burrow can go to the Bungles and turn that franchise around strikes me as unlikely to pay off.

See last years Super Bowl. 49ers led by dominant DL and running game and mediocre QB v. Super QB and decent enough team around him.

[Mdot21]

See last years Super Bowl. 49ers led by dominant DL and running game and mediocre QB v. Super QB and decent enough team around him.

Great point. 

49ers had a better roster top to bottom, especially along the DL and OL. The mismatch along the lines wasn’t even close imo. 49ers were far superior at both lines of scrimmage.

It was pretty much a wash at TE, but Chiefs had better WR’s and the best QB in the entire league. That Super QB took the game over in the 4th QTR while the 49ers mediocre QB folded under pressure.

[OrangeAfroMan]

The thinking is: you can’t win in the NFL without a QB. Those teams you listed that always won around 10+ games a year- had- Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Ben Roethlisberger.

The Seahawks were picking early every year before they got Russell Wilson. The Belichik Patriots were 5-13 with Bledsoe before Brady fell from heaven into the starting line-up.

It is impossible to win in the NFL without a QB. The teams that don’t have an elite QB never win anything.

The 2000 Ravens disagree.  As do the 02 Bucs and 15 Broncos.  Oh, and the 90 Giants and 17 Eagles won the SB with their backup QBs, so there's that.
.
Funny you specify Brady and Wilson, who were both the 7th QBs taken in their drafts.  Too slow, too short, blah blah.  GMs are throwing darts at a board and over-drafting QBs. 

[Cincydawg]

I don't even know who won the SB, I reckon it was the Chiefs.  But I gather the Niners had a rather good team as well.

[bayareabadger]

See last years Super Bowl. 49ers led by dominant DL and running game and mediocre QB v. Super QB and decent enough team around him.

I mean, that's an example of something, but in the end, that Super QB threw a pick down 10 with less than 12 minutes to go in the Super Bowl. And if that running game had been all that dominant and that Chiefs defense had been all that mediocre, then SF can probably grind out more than a first down on the two biggest possessions that could've sealed a title. 

All pieces work in concert. A great QB certianly helps. But the Chiefs are a cut above in terms of thermonuclear offenses (and they have a lot of good pieces). It was but a few years ago that Old Manning edged a team with an MVP QB. And the year before that, Manning had put up the greatest QB season we'd seen, and it ended with 8 points in the Super Bowl. 

A good QB remains super valuable, but it's not quite that be-all/end-all unless the QB has a mess of stupid good playmakers and a great coach and that last little burst he needs to close it out. 

[FearlessF]

Niners should have won the game

I blame the coach

[Cincydawg]

I'd still start by drafting linemen if I had a bad team.  Even a Johnny Manziel couldn't show his inherent greatness with Cleveland.

[ELA]

I'd still start by drafting linemen if I had a bad team.  Even a Johnny Manziel couldn't show his inherent greatness with Cleveland.

Wasn't Joe Thomas still there then?

That's kind of the point, even with the best lineman of his generation, playing the most important position on the line, the Browns didn't do crap.

[Cincydawg]

I'd still start with linemen.  I don't see the other approach ever working, e.g., having a classic bad team that is somehow turned around because they drafted a superstar.  I'm not saying you don't want a superstar of course, but wait, be patient, build your lines, then go for the talent.  You might even stumble across a superstar running back or QB or WR.  Where was Jerry Rice drafted?  Well, OK, not a great example.

I would bet some that top rated DLs and OLs are less often busts in the NFL than RBs.

[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.72)] Terrell Davis (No. 196, 6th round, 1995)[/color]

[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.72)]After nine years on the ballot and more vociferous debate about his candidacy than any player before him, Terrell Davis was inducted into the Hall of Fame last summer. His highs were meteoric, if short-lived. He helped John Elway win his first Super Bowl in 1997 (getting named the game’s MVP) and then backed it up in 1998 by rushing for 2,008 yards, scoring 23 touchdowns and being awarded NFL MVP. Injuries ended his career before he turned 30 and his prime lasted exactly three seasons. But what a prime it was.[/color]

[Mdot21]

I'd still start with linemen.  I don't see the other approach ever working, e.g., having a classic bad team that is somehow turned around because they drafted a superstar.  I'm not saying you don't want a superstar of course, but wait, be patient, build your lines, then go for the talent.  You might even stumble across a superstar running back or QB or WR.  Where was Jerry Rice drafted?  Well, OK, not a great example.

Cowboys took Aikman #1. Broncos essentially took Elway #1 when they traded. Ditto NY Giants for Eli. Colts took Peyton #1. All those teams got Super Bowls out of their #1 overall QB picks. That’s just off the top of my head. I’m sure there are a couple more in NFL history. 

Has there ever been a team take an OL #1 overall and win a Super Bowl? 

[bayareabadger]

Cowboys took Aikman #1. Broncos essentially took Elway #1 when they traded. Ditto NY Giants for Eli. Colts took Peyton #1. All those teams got Super Bowls out of their #1 overall QB picks. That’s just off the top of my head. I’m sure there are a couple more in NFL history.

Has there ever been a team take an OL #1 overall and win a Super Bowl?

Orlando Pace. No. 1 pick, on the short list of best to ever play. Ron Yary was also taken No. 1 and he didn't win a Super Bowl, but led his team there four times. Eric Fisher actually was taken No. 1 overall and did win a title with him, though he hasn't been all that. Jake Long was only a four-time Pro Bowler.

No. 1 overall QBs beside the ones you named (I'll start in 1960).
Terry Baker - Three seasons and done
Terry Bradshaw - Four titles, though he was kinda in the Aikman category 
Jim Plunkett - Won two titles with another team
Steve Bartkowski - Generally good QB, no SBs
Vinny Testaverde - Didn't do much for Tampa
Jeff George - Yeesh
Drew Bledsoe - The epitome of pretty good, played in one SB
Tim Couch - Yep
Michael Vick - He was fun
David Carr - Won a ring with Eli
Carson Palmer - Played a few snaps of a playoff game with the team that picked him
Alex Smith - Peaked in SF as a game manager and was replaced by a sometimes-good passer
JaMarcus Russell - Oof
Matthew Stafford - Yer guy
Sam Bradford - Ouch
Cam Newton - MVP that no one is signing
Andrew Luck - Pretty good
Jameis Winston - Available 
Jared Goff - Did lead a team to a Super Bowl
Baker Mayfield - Who's to say
Kyler Murray - Pretty OK last year

Basically, as soon as everyone said "We need good QBs" more than needing good RBs, the quality of No. 1 overall QBs fell off.