I think the BCR (blue chip ratio) has been predictive every year since 1998 (inaugural BCS) of the national championship ... at least in terms of separating a small set of in-group candidates from the majority of teams for whom an NC is effectively impossible.
The BCR is basic. Add up total 4* and 5* kids on scholarship. Then divide that number by the total scholarship roster (often by 85) and multiply by 100%. *Every* nat'l champ since 1998 has had a BCR >50%. This year that in-group is:
Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Auburn, FSU, Clemson, OSU, Michigan, Southern Cal. Just 9 teams.