B1G Regular Season Championship Race and BTT seeding races update:
Illinois stayed alive in the B1G Championship race by winning at Michigan but they can only win the title if they beat Ohio State in Columbus this weekend AND the Wolverines get swept by the Spartans. Any one of those three results are reasonably likely, the combination of all three is a remote possibility.
For each team I'll list their current record and what they have left, then below that I'll list their possible outcomes:
13-2 Michigan, vs MSU, @MSU:
- 15-2: League Champion and BTT #1
- 14-3: League Champion and BTT #1
- 13-4: Second place and BTT #2 unless tOSU beats ILL
15-4 Illinois, @tOSU:
- 16-4: League Champion and BTT #1 if MSU sweeps M, otherwise second place and BTT #2
- 15-5: BTT #2
12-6 Iowa, vs UNL, vs UW:
- 14-6: BTT #3
- 13-7: BTT #3 if PU and tOSU both lose. BTT #4 if either PU or tOSU lose. BTT #5 if both PU and tOSU win.
- 12-8: BTT #4 if tOSU loses. BTT #5 if tOSU wins.
12-6 Purdue, vs IU:
- 13-6: BTT #3 if IA loses at least once. BTT #4 if IA wins out.
- 12-7: BTT #3 if IA and tOSU lose out. BTT #4 if either IA or tOSU loses out. BTT #5 is neither IA nor tOSU loses out.
12-7 Ohio State, vs IL:
- 13-7: BTT #3 if IA and PU lose at least once each. BTT #4 if either IA or PU loses at least once. BTT #5 if both PU and IA win out.
- 12-8: BTT #4 if IA loses out. BTT #5 if IA wins at least once.
10-9 Wisconsin, @ IA:
- 11-9: BTT #6
- 10-10: * see below
9-10 Maryland, vs PSU:
- 10-10: * see below
- 9-11: * see below
9-10 Rutgers, @MN:
- 10-10: * see below
- 9-11: * see below
8-10 Michigan State, @M, vsM:
- 10-10: * see below
- 9-11: * see below
- 8-12: BTT #9 if PU beats IU. BTT #10 if IU beats PU.
7-11 Indiana, @PU:
- 8-11: BTT #10 if MSU gets swept by M. BTT #11 if MSU beats M at least once.
- 7-12: BTT #11
6-12 Penn State, @UMD:
- 7-12: BTT #12
- 6-13: BTT #12 if RU beats MN. BTT #13 if MN beats RU.
6-13 Minnesota, vsRU:
- 7-13: BTT #11 if UMD beats PSU. BTT #12 if PSU beats UMD.
- 6-14: BTT #12 if UNL beats NU. BTT #13 if NU beats UNL.
5-13 Northwestern, vs UNL:
- 6-13: BTT #12 if RU beats MN. BTT #13 if MN beats RU.
- 5-14: BTT #14 if UNL beats IA. BTT #13 if IA beats UNL.
3-14 Nebraska, @ IA, @NU:
- 5-14: BTT #13
- 4-15: BTT #14
- 3-16: BTT #14
The group closest to .500 is the most complex because up to four teams could mathematically finish 10-10 (UW with a loss @IA, UMD with a win vs PSU, RU with a win @MN, and MSU with a sweep of M). Three of them could finish 9-11 (UMD with a loss vs PSU, RU with a loss @MN, and MSU if they split with M).
Here is how that would all the 10-10 ties would break down:
- 10-10 tie for 6th/7th between UW and UMD: Maryland wins based on their superior record against IL.
- 10-10 tie for 6th/7th between UW and RU: Wisconsin wins, 1-0 H2H.
- 10-10 tie for 6th/7th between UW and MSU: Wisconsin wins, 1-0 H2H.
- 10-10 tie for 6th/7th/8th between UW, UMD, and RU: UW is 2-1 H2H, UMD is 2-2, RU is 1-2.
- 10-10 tie for 6th/7th/8th between UW, RU, and MSU: UW is 2-0 H2H, MSU is 1-2 H2H, RU is 1-2 H2H. UW gets the #6 seed. Rutgers gets the #7 seed based on their superior record against IL if IL beats tOSU. If tOSU beats IL then MSU gets the #7 based on their superior record against M.
- 10-10 tie for 6/7/8 between UW, UMD, and MSU: UMD is 2-1 H2H, UW is 2-1 H2H, MSU is 0-2 H2H. UMD gets the #6 seed based on their superior record against IL, UW gets the #7, MSU gets the #8.
- 10-10 tie for 6/7/8/9 between UW, UMD, RU, and MSU: UW is 3-1 H2H, UMD is 3-2 H2H, RU is 2-3 H2H, MSU is 1-3 H2H. Thus #6 UW, #7 UMD, #8 RU, #9 MSU.
- 10-10 tie for 7/8/9 between UMD, RU, and MSU: UMD is 2-1 H2H, RU is 2-2 H2H, MSU is 1-2 H2H,
- 10-10 tie for 7/8 between UMD and RU: Rutgers wins based on their superior record against PU.
- 10-10 tie for 7/8 between UMD and MSU: Maryland wins based on H2H (1-0).
- 10-10 tie for 7/8 between RU and MSU: MSU wins based on their superior record against M.
I think that is all of them.
Now for the potential 9-11 ties:
- 9-11 tie for 7/8/9 between UMD, RU, and MSU: UMD is 2-1 H2H, RU is 2-2 H2H, MSU is 1-2 H2H.
- 9-11 tie for 8/9 between UMD and RU: Rutgers wins based on their superior record against PU.
- 9-11 tie for 8/9 between UMD and MSU: Maryland wins based on H2H (1-0).
- 9-11 tie for 8/9 between RU and MSU: MSU wins based on their superior record against M.
I think that is all of them.