2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread

[847badgerfan]

The lack of seniors moving on is killing social security

Well... not this past year really.

[rolltidefan]

just noticed basketball has started a playoff like football. about time, need to determine champs on court, not on paper. though i am concerned with the number of teams in it. don't want some small time team running around ruining a good teams chances, like a modern cinderella.

[bayareabadger]

Where are you at with seniors/moving on?

I still think any that want to come back should be welcomed. If all wanted to come back, that might be an issue. I’d take Trice or Potter back in a heartbeat. I’d take Reuvers back begrudgingly (he’s better than he’s played and would be a good bridge). I’d take Davison because if he leaves they’ll have to bring in a transfer in his place, and he already knows the system, is probably better than most transfers they’d get and is more likely to bounce back than not. Anderson is in his natural state a fourth guard, so that’s just a luxury. If he’s playing more than that, it means the new guys are bad.

Basically, having any back is better than not, just because of the inexperience next year. If they play the same minutes, it means the new guys weren’t better, which means a team without senior would’ve been worse.

I still think Brad and Anderson are the only ones who might come back. And I’d take both. I’d also take Brad over anderson, but Anderson seems more likely to return.

[FearlessF]

If UW would like to shock me and win another game, I'm good with that.

my exact thoughts on the Huskers

[betarhoalphadelta]

Three teams in the NET rankings. 

Rank	Overall	Road	Neutral	Home	Quad 1	Quad 2	Quad 3	Quad 4
6	18-7	6-4	0-1	12-2	6-6	6-1	1-0	5-0
10	17-8	4-6	2-1	11-1	6-8	3-0	3-0	5-0
21	17-8	5-6	2-1	10-1	7-7	6-0	2-1	2-0

I don't see much of a difference between these resumes. No argument with #6 being ahead of the other two... Better road record, 12 wins over Q1/Q2 which is respectable. But it seems to me that #21 and #10 should either be identical, or #21 ahead... More Q1 wins and better win% against Q1, more Q2 wins, better road record, and less feasting on Quad 4 cupcakes with only 2 games instead of 5. Only blemish is the single Q3 loss. 

NET doesn't take into account blue blood status, so it can't be that. 

What am I missing?

[ELA]

Even though MOV is capped at 10, there has to be a lot of it baked into the efficiency ratings. Because if you look at Michigan State, just based on what is on the net sheet, it doesn't make any sense why they are so low.  The only thing is how many of their losses have been ugly, and how many of their winds have been closed

[medinabuckeye1]

Three teams in the NET rankings.

Rank	Overall	Road	Neutral	Home	Quad 1	Quad 2	Quad 3	Quad 4
6	18-7	6-4	0-1	12-2	6-6	6-1	1-0	5-0
10	17-8	4-6	2-1	11-1	6-8	3-0	3-0	5-0
21	17-8	5-6	2-1	10-1	7-7	6-0	2-1	2-0

I didn't check out the three teams and I'm not familiar with all the inner workings of NET rankings but could it be because not all Q1 games are equal?

Playing #1 on the road or #30 at home are both Q1 games but for these three teams one of those would be a big upset if they won and one a big upset if they lost. I think that the rankings factor that in.

Happens in football too. People talk about "ranked wins" and it can be a good shorthand but it can also be misleading because there is a big difference between, #1 on the road and #25 at home and there is an even bigger difference between #26 on the road and #115 at home.

[medinabuckeye1]

The home stretch continues to batter our bubble teams. 

With Minnesota's loss at PSU I think it is safe to say that they now can't make the tournament without winning the BTT. Unless the BTT gets moved to the Barn, I don't see that happening. 

Maryland's loss to PSU isn't as final but it could be problematic for the Terps.

[betarhoalphadelta]

I didn't check out the three teams and I'm not familiar with all the inner workings of NET rankings but could it be because not all Q1 games are equal?

Playing #1 on the road or #30 at home are both Q1 games but for these three teams one of those would be a big upset if they won and one a big upset if they lost. I think that the rankings factor that in.

Happens in football too. People talk about "ranked wins" and it can be a good shorthand but it can also be misleading because there is a big difference between, #1 on the road and #25 at home and there is an even bigger difference between #26 on the road and #115 at home.

6 was Iowa, 10 was Kansas, and 21 was Purdue (hence why I was looking at it). I didn't download the team sheets for each, so it's quite possible this is the case... 

It could be that Purdue was cleaning up on low-Q1 wins and losing to high-Q1 opponents while the other two were doing the opposite. 

But that would also mean that the quality of Iowa and Kansas' losses would be worse too, because if they're beating the high-Q1 opponents they need low-Q1 losses to balance. 

The only thing that would make sense, then, is if their schedules were much less favorable and they were playing more high-Q1 games than Purdue, whose schedule would be more dominated by low-Q1 games, giving them less chance to excel. But that would seem to be belied by one of the other teams being Iowa, who faces a pretty similar strength of schedule to Purdue--and the B1G being stronger than the B12 would seem that both teams have tougher slates than Kansas this year. 

Or, of course, margin of victory might play a role. Again I haven't looked closely at that. 

I find it interesting... KenPom has Purdue at 14 and Sagarin at 15, but Bart Torvik has them at 21, right where they are in the NET. Interestingly Torvik has Kansas at 23 and KenPom at 19, so in both rankings Purdue is ahead, while Sagarin has Kansas at 10. The Massey Composite as of Feb 28 (so not reflecting the Purdue win over Wisconsin) has Kansas at 13 and Purdue at 19. 

Being a numbers geek, I find it interesting. 

Obviously NET is a records-based ranking. KenPom and Torvik are efficiency-based. I'm not sure on Sagarin. 

[bayareabadger]

Wisconsin gets the good news that Lorne Bowman Will re-join the basketball program for next season. He was supposed to be a freshman this year, but left school due to some kind of family situation and maybe homesickness impacted by the pandemic isolation.

He might not have had that much impact on this season, other than allowing them to bench a struggling shooting guard more frequently if the freshman was as good as hoped. But his absence did have a rather profound effect on some of their off-season plans, as it likely means they will need at least one extra transfer.

Anyway, glad to have a player who I hope and think will be good in the mix.

[847badgerfan]

This is fantastic news. I hope it comes to pass when the time comes.

[medinabuckeye1]

6 was Iowa, 10 was Kansas, and 21 was Purdue (hence why I was looking at it). I didn't download the team sheets for each, so it's quite possible this is the case...

It could be that Purdue was cleaning up on low-Q1 wins and losing to high-Q1 opponents while the other two were doing the opposite.

But that would also mean that the quality of Iowa and Kansas' losses would be worse too, because if they're beating the high-Q1 opponents they need low-Q1 losses to balance.

The only thing that would make sense, then, is if their schedules were much less favorable and they were playing more high-Q1 games than Purdue, whose schedule would be more dominated by low-Q1 games, giving them less chance to excel. But that would seem to be belied by one of the other teams being Iowa, who faces a pretty similar strength of schedule to Purdue--and the B1G being stronger than the B12 would seem that both teams have tougher slates than Kansas this year.

Or, of course, margin of victory might play a role. Again I haven't looked closely at that.

I find it interesting... KenPom has Purdue at 14 and Sagarin at 15, but Bart Torvik has them at 21, right where they are in the NET. Interestingly Torvik has Kansas at 23 and KenPom at 19, so in both rankings Purdue is ahead, while Sagarin has Kansas at 10. The Massey Composite as of Feb 28 (so not reflecting the Purdue win over Wisconsin) has Kansas at 13 and Purdue at 19.

Being a numbers geek, I find it interesting.

Obviously NET is a records-based ranking. KenPom and Torvik are efficiency-based. I'm not sure on Sagarin.

Within the B1G, here are the sheets I have for Iowa and Purdue:




Iowa's league schedule looks slightly tougher I think but it is pretty close:

• Michigan:  Both played once but Iowa was on the road. Tougher for Iowa.  
• Illinois:  Both played once on the road.  Even.  
• Iowa:  Purdue played on the road.  Tougher for Purdue.  
• Purdue:  Iowa played at home.  Tougher for Iowa (These two, the H2H balance out as tougher for Purdue).  
• Ohio State:  Both played twice.  Even.  
• Wisconsin:  Iowa played on the road, Purdue played at home.  Tougher for Iowa.  

Like I said, that does look tougher for Iowa to me, but not by much.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

What the hell is up with the NCAA tourney this year???

• First Four is Thursday, all the games?
• R64 is Fri/Sat instead of the traditional Thurs/Fri
• R32 is Sun/Mon
• S16 is Sat/Sun
• E8 is Mon/Tue
• F4 is Saturday
• NC is Monday

Is this some COVID adjustment?

[MaximumSam]

What the hell is up with the NCAA tourney this year???

• First Four is Thursday, all the games?
• R64 is Fri/Sat instead of the traditional Thurs/Fri
• R32 is Sun/Mon
• S16 is Sat/Sun
• E8 is Mon/Tue
• F4 is Saturday
• NC is Monday

Is this some COVID adjustment?

Not certain but every game is in Indiana so they may have had to dance around some logistics or something.