The race for the last #1 seed:
In my opinion, barring some pretty big surprises the #1 seeds will be Baylor, Gonzaga, Michigan and then one of Ohio State, Iowa, or Illinois.
Espn's Bracketology currently has:
- Gonzaga
- Baylor
- Michigan
- Ohio State
And they have Iowa as the #2 seed in Gonzaga's region while Illinois is the #2 seed in Baylor's region. Their other two #2 seeds are Alabama and Villanova.
NCAA NET Rankings:
- 22-0 Gonzaga, 7-0 Q1, 5-0 Q2, 3-0 Q3, 7-0 Q4
- 18-0 Baylor, 6-0 Q1, 1-0 Q2, 5-0 Q3, 6-0 Q4
- 16-1 Michigan, 6-1 Q1, 4-0 Q2, 4-0 Q3, 2-0 Q4
- 16-6 Illinois, 7-5 Q1, 4-1 Q2, 3-0 Q3, 2-0 Q4
- 17-6 Iowa, 6-5 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 1-0 Q3, 5-0 Q4
- 17-3 Houston, 2-1 Q1, 4-1 Q2, 9-1 Q3, 2-0 Q4
- 18-5 Ohio State, 9-4 Q1, 3-1 Q2, 3-0 Q3, 3-0 Q4
- 15-3 Villanova, 2-1 Q1, 4-2 Q2, 8-0 Q3, 1-0 Q4
- 18-6 Alabama, 6-4 Q1, 6-1 Q2, 5-1 Q3, 1-0 Q4
ESPN's BPI rankings:
- Gonzaga
- Baylor
- Iowa
- Houston
- Michigan
- Villanova
- Illinois
- Ohio State
KenPom rankings:
- Gonzaga
- Baylor
- Michigan
- Iowa
- Houston
- Illinois
- Ohio State
First I'll discuss the other teams theoretically in the mix:
- Alabama is a #2 seed in ESPN's bracketology, #9 in NET, #14 in BPI, and #10 in KenPom.
- Villanova is a #2 seed in ESPN's bracketology, #8 in NET, #6 in BPI, and #8 in KenPom.
- Houston is #3 seed in ESPN's bracketology, #6 in NET, #4 in BPI, and #5 in KenPom.
One of those three could potentially end up ahead of the highest out of tOSU/IL/IA, but I think they'd probably need to win out and have tOSU/IL/IA cannibalize each other and/or all take upset losses. None of them will have an opportunity to improve their standing as much as the three B1G teams. Their remaining schedules and the BTT will provide LOTS of opportunities for quality wins and some of those will be against each other where one of the two has to win.
I admit that in the H2H games one of the two has to lose as well, but we are talking about six teams for one spot so the one losing doesn't help nearly as much as the other one winning hurts.
Remaining schedules for the three B1G teams, Ohio State:
- at MSU
- vs Iowa
- vs Illinois
- B1G Tournament
Illinois:
- vs Nebraska
- @ Wisconsin
- @ Michigan
- @ Ohio State
- B1G Tournament
Iowa:
- @ Michigan
- @ Ohio State
- vs Nebraska
- vs Wisconsin
- B1G Tournament
IMHO, if Ohio State beats Iowa and Illinois they are a near-lock for the last #1 seed. That would complete season sweeps of both the Hawkeyes and the Illini which would make it difficult for the committee to put either of them ahead of the Buckeyes and I do not think that any other team has sufficient remaining opportunities to catch up and pass tOSU with those two wins.
If the Buckeyes lose one or both of those games that hurts the Buckeyes but helps the Illini and/or Hawkeyes so from the perspective of Bama/Villanova/Houston that is pretty much a wash.
Iowa and Illinois both have great opportunities with their games at Michigan. At this point that is probably a win/win situation for the Illini and Hawkeyes because they aren't going to drop much (if at all) for losing in Crisler Arena and if they happen to win it will be the best win of the year so far by any team.
Based on all of this, I feel fairly confident at this point that the B1G will get two #1 seeds this year.