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Topic: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread

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NickSmith4Three

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1204 on: February 23, 2021, 08:32:38 PM »
Illinois can't score and can't get stops.  Terrible performance.

ELA

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1205 on: February 23, 2021, 08:58:58 PM »
If MSU is ever +15 in FTs ON THE ROAD, and whining to the officials, I promise you, I will be embarrassed

MaximumSam

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1206 on: February 23, 2021, 09:23:57 PM »
Aw nuts Sparty is good again

ELA

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1207 on: February 23, 2021, 09:26:26 PM »
We might have an NIT run in us

bayareabadger

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1208 on: February 23, 2021, 09:31:41 PM »
That was weird. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1209 on: February 23, 2021, 10:13:55 PM »
Aw nuts Sparty is good again
I suspected this might happen

847badgerfan

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1210 on: February 24, 2021, 10:41:23 AM »
Gonna be an interesting couple of weeks for seeding 2-6. I suspect UW will win maybe one more game. Illinois, @Iowa and @Purdue.

They might not even win one.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

ELA

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1211 on: February 24, 2021, 11:12:39 AM »
I suspected this might happen
Aaron Henry I believe has played 79 minutes over the past two games.  I don't know if that's sustainable with this every other day makeup schedule

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1212 on: February 24, 2021, 11:18:53 AM »
Gonna be an interesting couple of weeks for seeding 2-6. I suspect UW will win maybe one more game. Illinois, @Iowa and @Purdue.

They might not even win one.
Sagarin predictor ratings:

  • Home Court Advantage: 2.01
  • Wisconsin: 87.94
  • Illinois: 90.85
  • Iowa: 91.94
  • Purdue: 86.83

Sagarin's predictor is simple: add HCA to the home team's rating, and then higher rating wins.

  • vIllinois: Illinois even with Wisconsin having HCA is 0.9 higher... Very close.
  • @Iowa: With Iowa having the HCA and higher rating, this one should be less close. Iowa is now 6.01 higher.
  • @Purdue: Wisconsin has the higher rating but since the margin is smaller than HCA, Purdue is 0.9 higher... Also very close.


Sagarin's method can also turn rating differences into a Win%. I don't have his equation, but looking at his site there's a game scheduled with a 0.86 difference in rating for a win percentage of 53% to the favorite. When you get up to a rating difference of 6.04, it's a Win% of 71% to the favorite.

Wouldn't be surprised to see them win anywhere between 0 and 2 games inclusive out of that stretch. Both the Illinois and Purdue games project to be toss-ups, so a good or bad bounce this way or that could mean two wins or zero wins. 

MaximumSam

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1213 on: February 24, 2021, 11:56:30 AM »
Aaron Henry I believe has played 79 minutes over the past two games.  I don't know if that's sustainable with this every other day makeup schedule
Should probably rest him tomorrow

bayareabadger

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1214 on: February 24, 2021, 02:49:21 PM »
Sagarin predictor ratings:

  • Home Court Advantage: 2.01
  • Wisconsin: 87.94
  • Illinois: 90.85
  • Iowa: 91.94
  • Purdue: 86.83

Sagarin's predictor is simple: add HCA to the home team's rating, and then higher rating wins.

  • vIllinois: Illinois even with Wisconsin having HCA is 0.9 higher... Very close.
  • @Iowa: With Iowa having the HCA and higher rating, this one should be less close. Iowa is now 6.01 higher.
  • @Purdue: Wisconsin has the higher rating but since the margin is smaller than HCA, Purdue is 0.9 higher... Also very close.


Sagarin's method can also turn rating differences into a Win%. I don't have his equation, but looking at his site there's a game scheduled with a 0.86 difference in rating for a win percentage of 53% to the favorite. When you get up to a rating difference of 6.04, it's a Win% of 71% to the favorite.

Wouldn't be surprised to see them win anywhere between 0 and 2 games inclusive out of that stretch. Both the Illinois and Purdue games project to be toss-ups, so a good or bad bounce this way or that could mean two wins or zero wins.
The way UW has played since January, I expect bad bounces/inconsistent play. Would love to be wrong.

GopherRock

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1215 on: February 25, 2021, 08:57:32 AM »
This kid from Stewartville is A) heading to Michigan next fall on a basketball scholarship, and B) putting in a strong bid to replace Sir Christopher Lee as The Most Interesting Man In The World.

https://www.kare11.com/article/sports/stewartvilles-will-tschetter-stands-out-on-and-off-the-court/89-bf88d582-4be7-4426-a51b-85f3eacee78e?fbclid=IwAR2ApEpgnMaaBAihZE5RU9cNy341pU7LuGISsAKqY2f4yNkJto1TWX-axjM

ELA

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1216 on: February 25, 2021, 10:11:37 AM »
Was listening to a podcast that noted that Duane Washington took over 20 unofficial visits to MSU over his sophomore and junior year, and MSU offered...Foster Loyer.  :91:

In fairness, Loyer was offered earlier, so it was probably Gabe Brown who got that scholarship, but still.

Between that, and deciding to take Marcus Bingham over Trevion Williams in the same class, we are where we are

grillrat

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1217 on: February 25, 2021, 11:17:56 AM »
Hearing that Illinois Ayo out with a broken nose for at least two games.  Maybe more (possibly up till BTT).

 

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