Top 5 tilt for UM/OSU Sunday. I read somewhere that's a first.
I can't wait, this game is HUGE! Not only is it a top-4 AP match-up and a rivalry game and a game between two projected #1 seeds, but it is also just about the last chance to derail Michigan's regular season B1G Title hopes.
Regular season title race:
Michigan is firmly in first place at 10-1 and, at present, they only have four games left on their schedule so their absolute worst case scenario (assuming nothing gets rescheduled) is 10-5. If they beat Ohio State that improves to 11-4.
There are really only two other contenders:
- 11-3 Illinois and
- 12-4 Ohio State
The Illini and Buckeyes are both projected to play the initially planned 20 league games but that includes playing each other in Columbus in the final game of the season for both teams. If either IL or tOSU wins out, they would finish 17-3 (IL) or 16-4 (tOSU). So for either of them to claim at least a share of the title, the Wolverines (on their 15 game schedule) would have to finish no better than 12-3.
If the Buckeyes lose this weekend they will be practically (although not technically mathematically) eliminated because the only way to get even a share after losing to Michigan would be for Michigan to lose out (finish 11-4 or .733) while Ohio State won out (finish 15-5 or .750).
The Illini have perhaps a little better starting point since they only have three losses but they have two disadvantages vis-a-vis the Buckeyes:
- They don't get a crack at the Wolverines themselves so they need other teams to take them out, and
- The tOSU/IL game at the end of the season is in Columbus.
Since either Ohio State or Illinois needs Michigan to lose two games, one of them almost has to be this weekend at Ohio State. Otherwise the Wolverines would have to lose at least two out of their last three:
- @ IU on 2/27
- vs IA on 3/4
- @ MSU on 3/7
If the Buckeyes beat Michigan and Illinois wins their game this weekend (@MN) then we have a three-team race for the Championship. If Illinois or Ohio State lose then it is a two team race at best and if both lose then, at least practically, Michigan clinches.