2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Lunardi's latest:

• #1 M, tOSU
• #2 IL
• #3 IA
• #5 UW
• #6 PU
• #7 RU
• #10 MN, IU

The Gophers and Hoosiers are listed as "last four byes" while Maryland is the first team out and there are no other B1G bubble teams.  

FWIW, those seeds would typically result in:

• 6.44 teams in the R32
• 4.04 teams in the S16
• 2.45 teams in the E8
• 1.26 teams in the F4
• 0.71 teams in the NC
• 0.39 National Champions

[medinabuckeye1]

This week's games (Tues-Thurs):
Tuesday:

• 5-12/1-9 Nebraska at 11-10/5-9 Maryland (7pm, BTN):  The Terps are barely out and need a win here not so much because the win would help but because the loss would hurt.  
• 10-8/4-8 Michigan State at 13-8/8-6 Purdue (7pm, ESPN):  The Spartans need to find themselves and start winning while PU just needs win volume to secure their bid and work on their seed.  
• 6-12/3-11 Northwestern at 14-5/10-3 #5 Illinois (9pm, BTN):  The Illini can, IMHO, lock up a bid tonight.  

Wednesday:

• 13-8/6-8 Minnesota at 11-9/6-7 Indiana (9pm, BTN):  Two of the B1G's three most bubbly teams (the other is UMD) going H2H.  This is a huge game for both teams.  

Thursday:

• 15-6/9-5 #11 Iowa at 15-7/9-6 #21 Wisconsin (7pm, ESPN3):  Both are closing in on locking down a bid and working on their seed.  
• 17-4/11-4 #4 Ohio State at 7-10/4-9 Penn State (8pm, BTN):  In theory the Buckeyes should win big but remember that Ohio State just barely beat PSU in Columbus and it isn't altogether farfetched to think that they might be looking ahead to this weekend.  
• 12-7/8-7 Rutgers at 14-1/9-1 #3 Michigan (9pm, FS1):  The Wolverines are on Trap Game watch just like the Buckeyes because they play each other this weekend.  That is a massive game with both teams as projected #1 seeds and both in the top-4 of the rankings.  

[Abba]

Thanks medina for putting that together.  Hard to argue with it.  I might bump MSU up a category if they can pull out this game against Purdue.

[medinabuckeye1]

Thanks medina for putting that together.  Hard to argue with it.  I might bump MSU up a category if they can pull out this game against Purdue.

With MSU's loss they are rapidly approaching "need to win BTT" territory. 

[medinabuckeye1]

1997:

• Bill Clinton was sworn in to his second term as President.  
• All games were broadcast in something called "Standard Definition" although we didn't call it that because there wasn't any HDTV so it was just the normal thing.  
• Tom Izzo was in his second year as MSU's head coach following Jud Heathcote who was something of a legend in East Lansing having won the 1979 National Championship  and made numerous NCAA Tournament appearances including in four of his last five years before retiring.  Izzo was still a young new coach (then 42) so nobody knew if he would even work out at MSU (missed NCAA first two years) let alone that he would become a future hall of famer and completely overshadow his predecessor and mentor.  
• Gonzaga was still a relatively unknown small school somewhere in the Pacific Northwest.  (They were one-and-done in the 1995 NCAA Tournament and missed the next three (1996, 1997, 1998) before kicking off their current run with an E8 appearance in 1999).  
• I was still a student at Ohio State.  

The point is, it was a LONG time ago.  This was also the last time there was an NCAA Tournament without Michigan State.  


Longest ever NCAA Tournament streaks:

• 30 Kansas, 1990-present
• 27 North Carolina, 1975-2001
• 24 Dook, 1996-present
• 22 Michigan State, 1998-present
• 21 Gonzaga, 1999-present
• 19 Wisconsin, 1999-2017
• 18 Indiana, 1986-2003
• 17 Kentucky, 1992-2008
• 15 UCLA, 1967-1981
• 14 Texas, 1999-2012
• 14 Cincinnati, 1992-3005
• 14 Arizona, 1985-1998 (part of 25 straight but portions were later vacated)

Active Streaks in Bold, B1G teams in Italics.  


Michigan State currently holds the fourth longest ever NCAA Tournament streak and the third longest active streak.  At this point, however, that streak is in very serious jeopardy of ending next month.  

The most obvious path for the Spartans, at this point, would be to win the BTT.  That may soon become the only path.  My question for this post is can the Spartans keep their streak alive without winning the BTT?  

At present the Spartans are:

• 10-9 overall
• 4-9 in the B1G
• 2-8 in Q1 games
• 2-1 in Q2 games
• 2-0 in Q3 games
• 4-0 in Q4 games
• #93 in the NET Rankings
• #76 in BPI
• #71 in KenPom
• #25 in SoS Rank (per BPI)
• #62 in SoR Rank (per BPI, a ranking of the difficulty of attaining this record against this schedule)

Things do not look good.  

OTOH, all of us have seen Izzo turn November/December mediocrities into March/April Champions and there is talent on the roster so I'm not ready to write the epitaph for their streak yet, but time is running out fast.  

Here is what the Spartans have left in the RS (with current NET Ranking and Quadrant value):

• at Indiana on 2/20, #50, Q1
• vs Illinois on 2/23, #4, Q1
• vs Ohio State on 2/25, #6, Q1
• at Maryland on 2/28, #36, Q1
• vs Michigan on 3/7, #3, Q1

So three home games against the third, fourth, and sixth best teams in the Nation and two road games against top-50 opponents, YIKES!

Then there is the B1G Tournament.  As it stands right now the Spartans are in 11th place so they would play a Wednesday game.  If the BTT started today they would play 

• Nebraska on Wednesday (#141, Q3) 
• Purdue on Thursday (#27, Q1).  
• Ohio State on Friday (#6, Q1).  
• Their Saturday opponent would be the winner of Illinois (#4, Q1) vs either Wisconsin (#19, Q1) or Minnesota (#52, Q2 but would improve to Q1 if Minnesota beat both UW and IL to get there).  
• Finally, their Sunday opponent would be either Michigan (#3, Q1) or Iowa (#7, Q1), or Rutgers (#29, Q1), or Maryland (#36, Q1), or Penn State (#38, Q1), or Indiana (#50, Q1), or Northwestern (Q2).  

Michigan State's theoretical Best-Case-Scenario without winning the BTT would be to win their last five RS games which would probably move them out of playing on Wednesday in the BTT then go 3-1 in the BTT in which case all four games would likely be Q1 so their final record for the committee to consider would be:

• 18-10 overall
• 12-10 in B1G games (includes 3-1 in BTT)
• 10-9 in Q1 games
• 2-1 in Q2 games
• 2-0 in Q3 games
• 4-0 in Q4 games

That would EASILY get them in so they aren't finished yet but, like I said, they are rapidly running out of time.  Each additional loss gets them closer to needing to win the BTT.  Ie, if they lose their next three (at IU, vs IL, vs tOSU) then their Best-Case-Scenario short of winning the BTT drops to:

• 15-13 overall
• 9-13 in B1G games (includes 3-1 in BTT)
• 7-12 in Q1 games
• 2-1 in Q2
• 2-0 in Q3
• 4-0 in Q4

IMHO, that is borderline but might sneak them in partially because the committee may decline to make alternative brackets based on MSU winning (auto-bid) or losing (needs an at-large) the B1GCG.  Anything less than that, IMHO, is clearly out as they would be just .500 overall and well below that in both B1G and Q1 games.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Current B1g NCAA Tournament appearance streaks:

• 22 Michigan State (1998-present)
• 5 Purdue (2015-present)
• 4 Michigan (2016-present)
• 2 Ohio State (2018-present)
• 1 Wisconsin (2019-present)
• 1 Iowa (2019-present)
• 1 Maryland (2019-present)
• 1 Minnesota (2019-present)
• n/a Northwestern, last was 2017
• n/a Indiana, 2016
• n/a Nebraska, 2014
• n/a Illinois, 2013
• n/a Penn State, 2011
• n/a Rutgers, 1991

[847badgerfan]

An amazing run. 

[betarhoalphadelta]

With MSU's loss they are rapidly approaching "need to win BTT" territory.

That game was an old-school Spartan/Boiler rock fight. Ugly but fun to watch.

It was a game that I don't think any Boiler fans felt comfortable until the final moments. Purdue led almost the entire game, but every time they'd separate, MSU would come back to almost tied. 

Although the ESPN win probability graph shows it being on the Boiler side of the ledger the entire game (even late in the 1st half when MSU briefly led), MSU's last run dropped the win% to only 57% with 5:31 to play. Hardly a settled affair at that point.

In the end, what it really came down to was MSU's inability to stop Purdue in the paint. Particularly Trevion Williams, who finished with 28, but Zach Edey had 10 (4-8 from the field plus 2 FT), and a number of Ivey & Hunter's points were at the rim too. 

I think MSU had the right gameplan for Trevion, as they manhandled him off the low block numerous times. It's the same strategy used against Isaac Haas a couple years back. But Tre was on fire and he didn't have any trouble scoring from a little farther out than usual. 

[medinabuckeye1]

That game was an old-school Spartan/Boiler rock fight. Ugly but fun to watch.

It was a game that I don't think any Boiler fans felt comfortable until the final moments. Purdue led almost the entire game, but every time they'd separate, MSU would come back to almost tied.

Although the ESPN win probability graph shows it being on the Boiler side of the ledger the entire game (even late in the 1st half when MSU briefly led), MSU's last run dropped the win% to only 57% with 5:31 to play. Hardly a settled affair at that point.

In the end, what it really came down to was MSU's inability to stop Purdue in the paint. Particularly Trevion Williams, who finished with 28, but Zach Edey had 10 (4-8 from the field plus 2 FT), and a number of Ivey & Hunter's points were at the rim too.

I think MSU had the right gameplan for Trevion, as they manhandled him off the low block numerous times. It's the same strategy used against Isaac Haas a couple years back. But Tre was on fire and he didn't have any trouble scoring from a little farther out than usual.

I keep seeing results like this where MSU looks decent and thinking "Ah, here is Izzo's typical late season improvement, they'll be a Tournament team for sure."  

I thought that after they pushed Iowa in Iowa City too.  

Maybe this time they have found themselves and we'll see a more typical Izzo team from here on out.  Maybe they'll get a win in Assembly Hall in Bloomington this weekend then come home and beat both Illinois and Ohio State (next week, Tues/Thurs) or at least split those two while looking competitive.  

The concern for them is that they are running out of time.  The games in Iowa City and West Lafayette were competitive losses to very good teams but also since they returned they got absolutely drilled in Picastaway (67-37) and again at home by Iowa (88-58).  At this point there isn't much margin for error remaining.  

[bayareabadger]

That streak thing reminds me first of how lucky I was a Wisconsin fan to have seen most of it, and also that even if this season ends up being a disappointment in Madison, if they make the tournament, that matters in its own notable way.

[GopherRock]

The Gophers took advantage of MSU being a non-entity that spring to win their last Big Ten title, get a #1 seed, and go to the Final Four in Indianapolis. 

[MaximumSam]

Maryland beats Nebraska and the Hoosiers beat Minny last night.  Minnesota has yet to win on the road.

Fun night tonight - Iowa at Wiscy, OSU at PSU, Rutgers at Michigan

[medinabuckeye1]

Maryland beats Nebraska and the Hoosiers beat Minny last night.  Minnesota has yet to win on the road.

It is crazy.  The Gophers are 13-1 at home including wins over both Michigan and Ohio State.  That is not only a Tournament resume but a HIGH seed resume.  Then they are 0-7 on the road.  

Fun night tonight - Iowa at Wiscy, OSU at PSU, Rutgers at Michigan

I agree.  I mentioned this upthread, but I think that both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines should be on "Trap Game" watch tonight based on their upcoming H2H game this weekend.  It isn't crazy to think that one or both of them could be peeking ahead at a MONSTER AP top-4 match-up of two projected #1 seeds.  

The Gophers took advantage of MSU being a non-entity that spring to win their last Big Ten title, get a #1 seed, and go to the Final Four in Indianapolis.

*

[847badgerfan]

The Gophers took advantage of MSU being a non-entity that spring to win their last Big Ten title, get a #1 seed, and go to the Final Four in Indianapolis.

*