This weekend's games:
Friday:
- Illinois at Nebraska, 9pm BTN
Saturday:
- Indiana at Ohio State, noon, ESPN
- Iowa at Michigan State, 2:30pm, FOX
- Northwestern at Rutgers, 5pm
Sunday:
- Michigan at Wisconsin, 1pm, CBS
- Nebraska at Penn State, 3pm, BTN
- Minnesota at Maryland, 7pm
For the first time in quite a while it actually looks like all 14 B1G teams are going to play a game this weekend. They vary in stature, of course, but as this odd season begins to wind down these games are getting bigger for various reasons.
CORRECTION: I thought all 14 teams were playing because there are seven games but in fact Nebraska is playing twice (Fri/Sun) while Purdue is taking the weekend off).
Illinois (#4 NET, #7 BPI) at Nebraska (#167 NET, 130 BPI):
With Nebraska at 0-8 in the league this certainly looks like a mismatch but the Cornhuskers have been reasonably competitive at home. In their four previous B1G home games they (most recent to earliest):
- Lost to Wisconsin by 13
- Lost to Indiana by 8
- Lost to Michigan State (pre-Spartan COVID pause) by 7
- Lost to Michigan by 11
Yes, they are all losses but those are some really good opponents and none of those losses were complete blowouts. Illinois should win (and likely move to "lock" status but they shouldn't overlook the Cornhuskers.
Indiana (#45 NET, #27 BPI) at Ohio State (#7 NET, #12 BPI):
In a quirky bit of scheduling, this is Ohio State's easiest remaining home game. Other than this they have home games against the league's best teams (M, IA, IL) and road games against teams they probably should beat, but teams that are dangerous nonetheless (PSU, MSU). The Buckeyes are on an absolute tear and in a little over a month they have gone from possible Tournament team to possible #1 seed by going 8-1 since losing in Minneapolis way back on January 3. Those eight wins have included four road wins over ranked teams (#15 RU, #14 IL, #10 UW, #8 IA) which is the main reason that the Buckeyes are now in the mix for a #1 seed. If they want to stay in that mix they most likely HAVE to win this game because there are tougher games ahead.
From Indiana's perspective a win here would REALLY help their Tournament chances. ESPN has them as a #10 seed right now, just on the right side of the bubble but they are an 11-8/6-6 team that just can't seem to stay on the right side of .500 in the league. They started 0-2 in the league then won two to get to .500. Since then they've lost a game or two to fall one or two below .500 then won the necessary one or two to get back to .500 then lost again. Most recently they fell to 4-6 with back-to-back close losses to RU and IL at home then won back-to-back close games to get back to 6-6 where they are now.
Of note, Indiana's last four games have all ben decided either in OT or by four or less points or both so at least Indiana fans are getting their entertainment dollar's worth!
Iowa (#8 NET, #4 BPI) at Michigan State (#85 NET, #63 BPI):
I see this game as a potentially monumental turning point for both teams:
The Spartans looked abysmal coming out of their COVID pause. Scheduling didn't help, but they got absolutely annihilated in Picastaway then lost soundly in Columbus but after that they put up a respectable fight against these Hawkeyes in Iowa City before winning two straight home games (UNL, PSU). The question is whether or not Izzo's team can get a quality win. They only have one Q1 win (Rutgers on 1/5/21). That obviously isn't going to be enough to get them to the Tournament but they have LOTS of opportunities coming up:
- 2/13 vs IA, #8 NET, Q1
- 2/16 @ PU, #24 Q1
- 2/20 @ IU, #45 Q1
- 2/23 vs IL, #4 Q1
- 2/25 vs tOSU, #7 Q1
- 2/28 @ UMD, #43 Q1
- 3/7 vs M, #3 Q1
All seven games left on MSU's schedule (assuming none of the postponed games get rescheduled) are Q1 games. That is a blessing and a curse, of course but if they are going to extend their (and Izzo's) remarkable stretch of NCAA Tournament appearances they are either going to have to do some serious damage in these games or else have a monster weekend in the BTT.
Less than a month ago the Hawkeyes walked off the court in Evanston after their fifth straight league win. The only league loss was an OT game in Minneapolis and their only other loss was a neutral site loss to the #1 team in the country. The Hawkeyes were 12-2/6-1 and looked to be a probable #1 seed. Since then they are 2-4. What is worse is that their last six games, in theory, should have been relatively easy. Four of them were at home where they went 2-2 while going 0-2 on the road. Ie, they haven't won a road game since beating Northwestern on January 17. Will this be a mid-season funk that they come roaring back from or is this a midseason fade that just keeps declining?
Northwestern (#88 NET, #80 BPI) at Rutgers (#28 NET, #37 BPI):
Did you know that Northwestern started the conference season 3-0? If that seems like a long time ago, it was. They beat #4 MSU and #23 tOSU at home along with Indiana in Bloomington. They had also gone 3-1 OOC with the only blemish a one-point loss to Pitt so things looked pretty good. When they walked off the court the day after Christmas after beating the Buckeyes they were 6-1/3-0. Unfortunately for the Wildcats that was 10 games and 10 losses ago. Since then they have lost by blowout, they have lost by heartbreaker at the end, and they have lost in OT but the common thread is that they have lost. Can they get off the mat a win a B1G game? Well their last regular season game is at home against Nebraska so they probably can but they'd rather not wait that long.
For their part, the Scarlet Knights are a lot like Indiana. They just can't seem to break free of .500 in the league. They started 3-1 but then lost five straight to drop to 3-6 before winning four straight (7-6) and in their most recent outing they lost in Iowa City to fall back to .500 at 7-7. In theory Rutgers could make the Tournament even with a loss here but it would be a heck of a lot easier with a win here.
Michigan (#3 NET, #8 BPI) at Wisconsin (#18 NET, #14 BPI):
The Wolverines haven't played a live game since January 22, that was three weeks ago as I am writing this and it will be 23 days by the time their game with Wisconsin tips off. We all know that the Spartans set records for futility in their COVID return in Picastaway and frankly Madison is a tougher place to play and the Badgers are a better opponent. OTOH, the Wolverines appear to be a better team than the Spartans. I guess I should use the past tense "appeared" since nobody outside of Ann Arbor has seen a Wolverine play BB in nearly a month. Who knows what they look like now?
For the Badgers this game provides a much needed opportunity to get a quality win. Wisconsin is just 3-4 in Q1 games. The only B1G teams with less Q1 wins are the Spartans, Wildcats, and Cornhuskers. That is not company you want to keep if you plan on going to the Tournament.
Nebraska (#167 NET, #130 BPI) at Penn State (#31 NET, #47 BPI):
The Nittany Lions simply have to win this game. The Worldwide leader currently lists them among the "next four out" and you can't move up from there by losing to non-tournament teams like Nebraska. Penn State probably needs to pull off a few upsets to make it regardless but if they lose this they'll need multiple miracles down the stretch. They just can't afford to lose.
Minnesota (#49 NET, #56 BPI) at Maryland (#43 NET, #60 BPI):
The worldwide leader currently lists Minnesota as a #9 seed and Maryland as one of the next four out so they are both pretty close to the bubble. Both teams have played brutal schedules. The Terrapins are 4-10 in their 14 Q1 games while the Gophers are 4-6 in their 10. Both have quality wins but too many losses. Maryland is just 10-10 overall and 4-9 in the B1G while Minnesota is 13-7/6-7. This will be an important win for the winner and a difficult loss for the loser either way because they both really need wins.