SoS rankings nationally and within the B1G per BPI:
- #1 Penn State
- #2 Northwestern
- #4 Rutgers
- #9 Purdue
- #12 Maryland
- #14 Maryland
- #15 Indiana
- #19 Illinois
- #32 Ohio State
- #39 Wisconsin
- #40 Nebraska
- #46 Iowa
- #51 Michigan
- #78 Michigan State
Michigan State's is as low as it is simply because they have less conference games than the others to balance off their early OOC games. Right now four of their 12 games were against minor in-state schools (EMU, WMU, Detroit Mercy, Oakland) and another was against Nebraska.
I'm guessing that the cut-line in the B1G this year is going to be right around .500 overall. If you look at the four bubble teams (from above) their records (conference and overall) are:
- 4-5/9-7 Indiana (last four byes)
- 4-6/8-6 Rutgers (last four byes)
- 2-4/8-4 Michigan State (last four in)
- 3-6/9-7 Maryland (first four out)
Michigan State has 10 games left on the schedule plus four postponed games that may or may not be rescheduled plus the B1G Tournament. I'd rank the 10 remaining in order from most likely win to most likely loss as:
- vs UNL
- vs PSU
- vs tOSU
- @ UMD
- @ IU
- @ RU
- vs Iowa
- @ tOSU
- @ PU
- @ M
The four games that could potentially be rescheduled are (same order):
Then they will most likely start the BTT on Thursday (seeded 5-10) or possibly Wednesday (seeded 11-14). In theory it is better to be a top-10 seed and not start until Thursday but if they are close to the 10/11 line they would probably be better off to fall to #11. That gets them an easy Wednesday win over #14 then a Thursday game against #7.
Example based on current standings:
If the BTT started tomorrow, MSU would be the #11 seed, their games would be:
Wednesday vs #14 Nebraska
Thursday vs #6 tOSU (tOSU loses H2H tiebreaker with PU for 5/6)
Friday vs #3 IL (IL wins tie for 3/4 with UW based on record against PU)
Saturday vs #2 IA (or #7 or #10).
If they magically passed Maryland for the #10 slot their games would be:
Thursday vs #7 MN (MN wins 7/8 tie with IU based on record against M)
Friday vs #2 Iowa
Saturday vs #3 IL (or #6 or #11 or #14)
I don't think their games this week are "must win" because I think that they probably only need to win about five or six more games and the games this week are their sixth and eighth most likely wins.