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Topic: 2019 B1G-E Race

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #14 on: May 22, 2019, 10:06:39 AM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on May 21, 2019, 06:38:34 PM

I think MSU and that defense will rise to be in the mix.


I disagree for two reasons:

First, I have absolutely no faith in that offensive staff producing anything resembling a competent offense.  Thus, even if they have a NC-worthy defense, they'll still have to carry their incompetent offense.  That is the type of team that can beat anybody on a given day (because the D is good enough to many any game winnable) but also lose to anybody on a given day (because the O is bad enough to make any game losable).  That type of team might just win in the Shoe or the Big House or knock off PSU at home but they won't be "in the mix" because they'll also lose two or three games to non-contenders. 

Second, even if MSU has an elite team (both sides of the ball) this year, that schedule is just brutal.  They get four of their five toughest opponents on the road.  Travelling to the Shoe, the Big House, and Camp Randall all in one year is just not a recipe for a CG appearance. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #15 on: May 22, 2019, 10:36:25 AM »
FWIW, tiebreakers:

In a two-team tie the tiebreaker is H2H. 

In a multiple-team tie, the following steps are used with the stipulation that if only two teams remain after any step (or sub-step), the H2H winner between those two wins:
1)  H2H...2H
2)  Divisional Record
3)  Record against the next highest placed team(s) in the division, then the next, then the next, etc
4)  Record against all common conference opponents
5)  SOS as determined by cumulative winning percentage of non-divisional opponents
6)  Record against the best team(s) in the other division (note that for this step, 1-0 is better than 0-0)
7)  Overall record not including games against FCS teams
8)  Random Draw
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #16 on: May 22, 2019, 01:23:19 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on May 22, 2019, 10:06:39 AM
I disagree for two reasons:

First, I have absolutely no faith in that offensive staff producing anything resembling a competent offense.  Thus, even if they have a NC-worthy defense, they'll still have to carry their incompetent offense.  That is the type of team that can beat anybody on a given day (because the D is good enough to many any game winnable) but also lose to anybody on a given day (because the O is bad enough to make any game losable).  That type of team might just win in the Shoe or the Big House or knock off PSU at home but they won't be "in the mix" because they'll also lose two or three games to non-contenders. 

Second, even if MSU has an elite team (both sides of the ball) this year, that schedule is just brutal.  They get four of their five toughest opponents on the road.  Travelling to the Shoe, the Big House, and Camp Randall all in one year is just not a recipe for a CG appearance. 
FWIW, my definition of "in the mix" may be more lax than yours. Mostly I mean to emphasize my prediction that PSU will struggle to "James Franklin will get fired next year" levels.

I completely agree about the MSU offense. But with that defense they'll still be better than PSU. Hence what i said about the massive gap if the ordering stands. If PSU is a tire fire and MSU is *not* better ... woof. 

Anyway, this is not a good year for the East. Should be strong at the top but uncharacteristically thin after that. Unless someone like MSU or Maryland really surprises.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #17 on: May 22, 2019, 01:34:59 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on May 22, 2019, 09:45:20 AM
In theory maybe but in practice it would be pretty unlikely. 

FWIW:  I agree with @Anonymous Coward .  Winning the B1G-E is now MORE important to me than beating Michigan.  Obviously both is best and in most years it will be difficult or impossible to win the B1G-E without beating Michigan but, given the choice between a win in Ann Arbor and a berth in Indianapolis, I'd take the berth in Indianapolis without hesitating. 
OSU has made the Playoffs without getting to Indy, so it's not THAT far fetched. 

Perhaps PSU drops a game to Pitt but then runs the table in the Big Ten. In that case Michigan's one loss to Penn St might be viewed as a "better loss" than PSU's one loss to Pitt.  
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2019, 02:28:59 PM »
In that scenario, for Michigan to be in and PSU out, PSU would absolutely have to lose more than once ... just like when they got passed over in 2016.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2019, 03:36:59 PM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on May 22, 2019, 02:28:59 PM
In that scenario, for Michigan to be in and PSU out, PSU would absolutely have to lose more than once ... just like when they got passed over in 2016.
Okay. So they drop another noncon game in addition to Pitt, but don't lose any of their Big Ten games.
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MrNubbz

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #20 on: May 22, 2019, 04:35:22 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on May 21, 2019, 03:20:58 PM
My initial thoughts by team:

 After Michigan, the Buckeye's next toughest road game is Northwestern and nobody confuses Ryan Field for Camp Randall so that helps the Buckeyes a lot. 

Somewhere NU Wildcat is fixing to whizz in your cheerios
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #21 on: May 22, 2019, 04:48:27 PM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on May 22, 2019, 04:35:22 PM
Somewhere NU Wildcat is fixing to whizz in your cheerios
I get what you are saying but as I recall, Marcel was as aware as anyone that Ryan Field isn't very intimidating.  I recall that being a frustration of his. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #22 on: May 22, 2019, 04:57:33 PM »
Sometimes, a place can lead to a loss even without being intimidating.

My general opinion is that "we" put too much emphasis on HFA though.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2019, 05:01:45 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 22, 2019, 01:34:59 PM
OSU has made the Playoffs without getting to Indy, so it's not THAT far fetched.

Perhaps PSU drops a game to Pitt but then runs the table in the Big Ten. In that case Michigan's one loss to Penn St might be viewed as a "better loss" than PSU's one loss to Pitt. 

It is possible but I agree with the above comments that PSU would absolutely have to lose AT LEAST one other game.  However, it wouldn't HAVE to be a non-conference game.  It could be a conference game because in that scenario PSU would still win the H2H tiebreaker.  It could also be the CCG particularly if the B1G-W Champion was not highly ranked/respected.  It, or rather they, could also be both. 

Ie, consider this scenario:
1)  tOSU loses to at least PSU and M in conference. 
2)  PSU beats the Buckeyes (in Columbus) and the Wolverines (at home) but loses to Pitt and at Iowa. 
3)  Other than their loss at Penn State, the Wolverines run the table including a quality win over a highly ranked Notre Dame squad. 
4)  The B1G-W is very evenly matched and becomes a circular firing squad where everybody loses a few games and the eventual B1G-W CG representative is a team that has two conference losses and an OOC loss. 
5)  In a surprise upset, B1G-E champion Penn State loses to the 9-3 B1G-W Champion in the B1GCG. 

At that point the B1G's CFP possibilities would be:
B1G Champion, 10-3 B1G-W Champ (with an OOC loss and two conference losses)
B1G-E Champion, 10-3 Penn State (with losses to Iowa, Pitt, and the B1G-E Champ)
B1G-E co-Champion, 11-1 Michigan with a road loss to Penn State

Based on what the committee has shown us in the past, I think it is clear that the two three-loss B1GCG participants would be out but 11-1 Michigan with quality wins over ND and tOSU and a "quality loss" on the road to Penn State would probably get in.  Note that in this scenario it helps Michigan substantially if the Buckeyes are 10-2 because then they could have wins over two top-10ish teams (tOSU, ND). 
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #24 on: May 22, 2019, 08:11:15 PM »
Moving on: your question seemed to ask without this much nuance which is better to win, championships or rivalry games. The vague chance of a non-champ getting to the CoFoPO is a "sort of championship" (at least in the hanging Final Four banners in basketball sense). If you want to include that with the rivalry game scenario to sweeten the pot and make it more complicated, we can do that, though doing that does ruin the "would you prefer rivalry wins or championships" aspect. Anyway, if we do that, they yes, I want to beat ND, OSU and make the CoFoPO. Because the CoFoPO is enough of a sweetener for that pot to change everything.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #25 on: May 22, 2019, 09:31:45 PM »
Well okay. I suppose the initial line of questioning was the rivalry vs championships, but your initial reply assumed a big ten title instead of divisional title, and dismissed the idea that a title of some sort could still be won without going to Indy. So I got a little sidetracked. Anyway you are correct about the initial spirit of the question as during the John Cooper years I'd've rather gone 1-11 with a win over Michigan than 11-1 with a Big Ten title and a loss to Michigan. So was wondering if the same spirit was present amongst Michigan fans now that the situation is reversed. So I'll put you down as a no. And since you are the lone respondent I will go ahead and roll with this singular data point and attribute it to the Maize masses.
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TyphonInc

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #26 on: May 22, 2019, 09:52:17 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on May 21, 2019, 03:20:58 PM
My initial thoughts by team:

 - Ohio State:  The Buckeyes are the best team, at least according to ELA, but they play their chief rival (per ELA, this year, and in general) on the road.  That obviously hurts Ohio State's CCG chances but other than the location of "THE GAME", I think that Ohio State's schedule is substantially more favorable than Michigan's.  Ie, I think it is reasonably likely that Ohio State could lose THE GAME and go to Indianapolis anyway where I think Michigan's chances of getting to Indianapolis after losing to Ohio State are remote.  After Michigan, the Buckeye's next toughest road game is Northwestern and nobody confuses Ryan Field for Camp Randall so that helps the Buckeyes a lot. 


 - Michigan State:  Dantonio's squad lately seems to be a competent offense away from being a CG contender.  This year it will be tricky for them even if they do manage to attain competence on offense.  They travel to The Shoe, The Big House, Camp Randall, and Evanston and even an EXTREMELY good team would be lucky to go 2-2 through that gauntlet. 

I know it's just a nit pick but; for OSU, Northwestern is no Camp Randell. For MSU, Evanston is part of the Gauntlet. 
I don't think you can play it both ways. Either it's a big deal to play in Chicago or it isn't.

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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #27 on: May 22, 2019, 10:58:18 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on May 21, 2019, 03:20:58 PM
My initial thoughts by team:

 - Indiana:  The Hoosiers host both Ohio State and Michigan but they travel to PSU, MSU, PU, UNL, and UMD.  I just can't see a plausible path to Indy. 

 - Maryland:  Personally, I think that ELA might be a little overly bearish on the Terps but I still can't see a plausible path to Indy.  They do host two of the top-3 (M, PSU) but it would still take an upset to win either of those games and both would be beyond shocking.  Even if they managed to go 2-1 against the top-3, they would still need to contend with road games against MSU, MN,  and PU. 

If they were to bus to a few of their road games then Indiana could go through Indy on their way to MSU and PSU, while Maryland would most likely traverse Indianapolis on their way to Purdue. 
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