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Topic: 2019 B1G-E Race

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #28 on: May 22, 2019, 11:08:28 PM »
Quote from: TyphonInc on May 22, 2019, 09:52:17 PM
I know it's just a nit pick but; for OSU, Northwestern is no Camp Randell. For MSU, Evanston is part of the Gauntlet.
I don't think you can play it both ways. Either it's a big deal to play in Chicago or it isn't.


That is a fair point, but I'll try to explain:
I think that Ryan Field is less intimidating than Randall or Kinnick. Nonetheless, from MSU'S perspective it would be easier to play them at home than on the road.
Even if NU's HFA is zero, playing them there means that MSU doesn't get their own HFA.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #29 on: May 22, 2019, 11:31:43 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on May 22, 2019, 05:01:45 PM
It is possible but I agree with the above comments that PSU would absolutely have to lose AT LEAST one other game.  However, it wouldn't HAVE to be a non-conference game.  It could be a conference game because in that scenario PSU would still win the H2H tiebreaker.  It could also be the CCG particularly if the B1G-W Champion was not highly ranked/respected.  It, or rather they, could also be both. 

Ie, consider this scenario:
1)  tOSU loses to at least PSU and M in conference. 
2)  PSU beats the Buckeyes (in Columbus) and the Wolverines (at home) but loses to Pitt and at Iowa. 
3)  Other than their loss at Penn State, the Wolverines run the table including a quality win over a highly ranked Notre Dame squad. 
4)  The B1G-W is very evenly matched and becomes a circular firing squad where everybody loses a few games and the eventual B1G-W CG representative is a team that has two conference losses and an OOC loss. 
5)  In a surprise upset, B1G-E champion Penn State loses to the 9-3 B1G-W Champion in the B1GCG. 

At that point the B1G's CFP possibilities would be:
B1G Champion, 10-3 B1G-W Champ (with an OOC loss and two conference losses)
B1G-E Champion, 10-3 Penn State (with losses to Iowa, Pitt, and the B1G-E Champ)
B1G-E co-Champion, 11-1 Michigan with a road loss to Penn State

Based on what the committee has shown us in the past, I think it is clear that the two three-loss B1GCG participants would be out but 11-1 Michigan with quality wins over ND and tOSU and a "quality loss" on the road to Penn State would probably get in.  Note that in this scenario it helps Michigan substantially if the Buckeyes are 10-2 because then they could have wins over two top-10ish teams (tOSU, ND). 


But to get back at the sidetrack for just a sec, I think that the Wolverines would be far more likely to make the Playoffs under this scenario that you have laid out than as a 2-loss team with a Big Ten Title.

Maybe even with only two of those three PSU losses, as the Lions would still have two losses to Michigan's one (@PSU).
« Last Edit: May 22, 2019, 11:38:35 PM by Brutus Buckeye »
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #30 on: May 22, 2019, 11:34:41 PM »
Quote from: TyphonInc on May 22, 2019, 09:52:17 PM
I know it's just a nit pick but; for OSU, Northwestern is no Camp Randell. For MSU, Evanston is part of the Gauntlet.
I don't think you can play it both ways. Either it's a big deal to play in Chicago or it isn't.


I see what you're saying, but recent records seem to call for context. MSU is 1-4 v NU in the last five. Let's admit that the record is 1-1 in Evanston over that time, as opposed to 0-3 in EL. Even then, it's fair to treat Evanston as different for OSU than MSU.
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #31 on: May 22, 2019, 11:37:20 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 22, 2019, 09:31:45 PM
Anyway you are correct about the initial spirit of the question as during the John Cooper years I'd've rather gone 1-11 with a win over Michigan than 11-1 with a Big Ten title and a loss to Michigan. So was wondering if the same spirit was present amongst Michigan fans now that the situation is reversed. So I'll put you down as a no.
I can't speak for the full fanbase, but I honestly don't think Michigan ever felt that way, maybe some individuals but never as a popular take. I know I've read OSU fans say this, but I never thought they were typing it genuinely. No rivalry win has ever been more valuable than 11 other wins plus a championship. Or so I thought.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2019, 12:00:42 AM by Anonymous Coward »
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #32 on: May 22, 2019, 11:43:11 PM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on May 22, 2019, 11:37:20 PM
I can't speak for the full fanbase, but I honestly don't think Michigan ever felt that way. Likewise, I've often read OSU fans say this, but I never thought they were typing it genuinely. No rivalry win has ever been more valuable than 11 other wins plus a championship. Or so I thought.

Well I don't feel the same way today, but did back when wins in THE GAME were seemingly impossible to come by. But with three rivalry games instead of one and a lengthy Big Ten Title drought hanging over your head, I can see where it might be a little different from the Wolverine's perspective in the modern day. 
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #33 on: May 22, 2019, 11:50:07 PM »
Another noteworthy difference is that you can remember a time when Michigan dominated the series, whereas I started watching the Buckeyes the year that John Cooper was hired. 
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #34 on: May 23, 2019, 12:07:20 AM »
Being born in 1983 means I am of that age, but it wasn't until I matriculated in 2001 that I liked football. So I don't have any John Cooper memories. I feel lucky my parents gave 2001 season tickets as a birthday gift before my freshman year. Being part of that crowd hooked me. In high school and before, I never watched a Michigan game. I was very pro-Michigan as a university and in hockey but was unaware of them for football. That said more about me, though, and my feelings about sports other than hockey. I only attended one HS football game as a HS student and didn't at the time get why it was america's favorite sport. Michigan Stadium changed that for me. Not the game itself, but the pageantry and how I'd never seen a sea of so many unified people. It was all so highly addictive.
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Mdot21

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #35 on: May 23, 2019, 12:29:46 AM »
Prediction: Michigan has a new high flying offense and hums along to a 10-1 record in the finale vs Ohio State in a huge showdown for all the marbles only to get embarrassed and lose to the arch rival...AGAIN. Recurring theme here. 

Jim Cooperbaugh just can’t get over the hump. 
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Mdot21

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #36 on: May 23, 2019, 12:31:31 AM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 22, 2019, 09:31:45 PM
Well okay. I suppose the initial line of questioning was the rivalry vs championships, but your initial reply assumed a big ten title instead of divisional title, and dismissed the idea that a title of some sort could still be won without going to Indy. So I got a little sidetracked. Anyway you are correct about the initial spirit of the question as during the John Cooper years I'd've rather gone 1-11 with a win over Michigan than 11-1 with a Big Ten title and a loss to Michigan. So was wondering if the same spirit was present amongst Michigan fans now that the situation is reversed. So I'll put you down as a no. And since you are the lone respondent I will go ahead and roll with this singular data point and attribute it to the Maize masses.
At this f’n point I’ll take a win over OSU over ANYTHING. I’d rather go 1-11 with a win vs OSU than 11-1 and another fricken loss. They’ve got to start winning that gd game. NOW. 
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #37 on: May 23, 2019, 07:16:02 AM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on May 23, 2019, 12:07:20 AM
Being born in 1983 means I am of that age, but it wasn't until I matriculated in 2001 that I liked football. So I don't have any John Cooper memories. I feel lucky my parents gave 2001 season tickets as a birthday gift before my freshman year. Being part of that crowd hooked me. In high school and before, I never watched a Michigan game. I was very pro-Michigan as a university and in hockey but was unaware of them for football. That said more about me, though, and my feelings about sports other than hockey. I only attended one HS football game as a HS student and didn't at the time get why it was america's favorite sport. Michigan Stadium changed that for me. Not the game itself, but the pageantry and how I'd never seen a sea of so many unified people. It was all so highly addictive.


Okay, so MDot's vote evens up the score. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #38 on: May 23, 2019, 07:19:33 AM »
Michigan is reminding me of Georgia circa 2005 a lot these days.  Some good years, even a couple conference crowns, but always a loss in a key game and nearly always a loss to Florida.  No MCs of course, not even a shot at one in the BCS era.  Good years, but disappointing in a lot of ways.

It got to where beating Florida was all that really mattered.  Today Alabama has usurped that title.  For now.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #39 on: May 23, 2019, 04:56:10 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on May 23, 2019, 12:31:31 AM
At this f’n point I’ll take a win over OSU over ANYTHING. I’d rather go 1-11 with a win vs OSU than 11-1 and another fricken loss. They’ve got to start winning that gd game. NOW.

As someone who was a student at Ohio State during the 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997 seasons, I definitely know how you feel, but I think a few things are different now:

When I was a student, tOSU went 1-4 against Michigan.  Oddly, the one win was in one of only two years that Michigan had a better team.  When I was a student, Ohio State was 0-3 against Michigan when the Buckeyes had the better team and 1-1 when Michigan had the better team. 

Cooper's early Michigan losses (1988-1991) were to clearly superior teams.  From 1988-1991 Michigan finished with a better record every year.  1992 was an odd/transitional year.  Michigan was really good (9-0-3) but they tied a high-end team (ND) and two inferior teams (IL, tOSU). 

The Cooper losses that REALLY bothered me were these three games when Ohio State had a clearly better team and lost anyway:

 - 1993:  Ohio State came in 9-0-1, Michigan came in 6-4.  Worse, two of Michigan's losses were to teams that Ohio State beat (MSU, IL). 

 - 1995:  Ohio State came in 11-0, Michigan came in 8-3. 

 - 1996:  Ohio State came in 10-0, Michigan came in 7-3.  Worse, two of Michigan's losses were to teams that Ohio State did not just beat but teams that Ohio State flat out annihilated (PU, PSU). 

It got to the point where it just felt to us (tOSU fans) like it wouldn't matter if John Cooper got the 85 Bears and dressed them up in Ohio State uniforms, he'd still find a way to lose to Michigan. 

As I see it, two things are different.  First, Michigan hasn't been routinely losing to inferior Ohio State teams.  The other thing that is different is that the CFP has just changed the game.  Back in the 1990's when a lot of Ohio State fans (including me) said we'd rather go 1-10 with a win over Michigan than 11-1 with another Michigan loss, there wasn't really a chance to win a NC without beating Michigan.  Now, with the CFP, it IS realistically possible for the loser of THE GAME to win an NC if the cards all fall just right. 

In 2019 if either tOSU or M clinches a B1GCG berth prior to THE GAME and heads into THE GAME at 11-0 it would be not just possible but likely that they could lose THE GAME and still make the CFP with a B1GCG win. 

So consider just that scenario, you get two choices (for fans of either team):
 - Win the rivalry but lose the B1GCG and miss the CFP, or
 - Lose the rivalry but win the B1GCG, get to the CFP and win an NC

I would choose the latter and it isn't even close. 
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Mdot21

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #40 on: May 23, 2019, 06:46:21 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on May 23, 2019, 04:56:10 PM
As someone who was a student at Ohio State during the 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997 seasons, I definitely know how you feel, but I think a few things are different now:

When I was a student, tOSU went 1-4 against Michigan.  Oddly, the one win was in one of only two years that Michigan had a better team.  When I was a student, Ohio State was 0-3 against Michigan when the Buckeyes had the better team and 1-1 when Michigan had the better team. 

Cooper's early Michigan losses (1988-1991) were to clearly superior teams.  From 1988-1991 Michigan finished with a better record every year.  1992 was an odd/transitional year.  Michigan was really good (9-0-3) but they tied a high-end team (ND) and two inferior teams (IL, tOSU). 

The Cooper losses that REALLY bothered me were these three games when Ohio State had a clearly better team and lost anyway:

 - 1993:  Ohio State came in 9-0-1, Michigan came in 6-4.  Worse, two of Michigan's losses were to teams that Ohio State beat (MSU, IL). 

 - 1995:  Ohio State came in 11-0, Michigan came in 8-3. 

 - 1996:  Ohio State came in 10-0, Michigan came in 7-3.  Worse, two of Michigan's losses were to teams that Ohio State did not just beat but teams that Ohio State flat out annihilated (PU, PSU). 

It got to the point where it just felt to us (tOSU fans) like it wouldn't matter if John Cooper got the 85 Bears and dressed them up in Ohio State uniforms, he'd still find a way to lose to Michigan. 

As I see it, two things are different.  First, Michigan hasn't been routinely losing to inferior Ohio State teams.  The other thing that is different is that the CFP has just changed the game.  Back in the 1990's when a lot of Ohio State fans (including me) said we'd rather go 1-10 with a win over Michigan than 11-1 with another Michigan loss, there wasn't really a chance to win a NC without beating Michigan.  Now, with the CFP, it IS realistically possible for the loser of THE GAME to win an NC if the cards all fall just right. 

In 2019 if either tOSU or M clinches a B1GCG berth prior to THE GAME and heads into THE GAME at 11-0 it would be not just possible but likely that they could lose THE GAME and still make the CFP with a B1GCG win. 

So consider just that scenario, you get two choices (for fans of either team):
 - Win the rivalry but lose the B1GCG and miss the CFP, or
 - Lose the rivalry but win the B1GCG, get to the CFP and win an NC

I would choose the latter and it isn't even close.
I hear you, but I just want a win over Ohio State. Can’t take it anymore. 

It’s 2019. Since the year 2000 Michigan has beaten Ohio State....THRICE. So 3 times in basically 20 years. I just want a damn win over Ohio State at this point. The domination started with Tressel toying with LC and forcing him into retirement. This OSU run of domination is even more dominate than Michigan had over Cooper. Can’t take it anymore man. It’s hardly even a rivalry anymore. Im at the point where if Jim doesn’t win this AT home with a SR QB vs Not Urban Meyer and the Georgia QB castoff then I’m done with him. 
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #41 on: May 23, 2019, 10:06:06 PM »
Michigan is facing structural issues versus OSU. Like Medina said, we are losing because we are the worse program, not because we can't handle the psychology of the game. Program inadequacy is the kind of thing that takes a minimum of 5-10 years to correct, up to a maximum of infinite years (if for example the 2000s were a watershed decade rather than just another ol' decade).

I don't care which years the next win or all the next wins arrive but if Michigan wins 40% of the time over the next 5-10 years after the recruiting and program advantage OSU built over the previous 20 years, then Harbaugh will rank somewhere between magician and "not entirely sure ... but certainly worth the money and absolutely insane to fire."

For now, I have no choice but to be pleased by the trajectory of the programs. That Michigan is on the cusp again in November. That, from 2016-2018, OSU week has been more up in the air than was normal from 2001-2015. Michigan is clearly improving as a program. 

And then I'm hopeful that continuing  this will close the gap when paired with OSU entering the afterstages of two decades of two legendary coaches and into a new unknown. Day starts with a fully built, highest end program, of course. But inheriting it isn't enough; he also has to maintain it like the legends did.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 01:17:44 AM by Anonymous Coward »
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