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Topic: 2019 B1G-E Race

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medinabuckeye1

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2019 B1G-E Race
« on: May 21, 2019, 03:03:19 PM »
Using @ELA 's rankings from his Countdown thread, I organized this list of the B1G-E team which shows which three cross-over B1G-W opponents each one of them face and which teams each of them face home and which away. 

Not that this year each B1G-E team hosts one B1G-W team and visits two B1G-W teams.  Here is the chart (again, uses ELA's rankings and thank you @Anonymous Coward for formatting assistance):
Rank.1237111214.Rank
.TeamtOSUMPSUMSUIUUMDRUTeam.
1tOSUn/a11/30, H11/23, A10/5, A9/14, H11/9, A11/16, HtOSU1
2M11/30, An/a10/19, H11/16, A11/23, H11/2, H9/28, AUW2
3PSU11/23, H10/19, An/a10/26, H11/16, A9/27, H11/30, APSU3
4Iowamiss10/5, H10/12, Amissmissmiss9/7, AMSU4
5UW10/26, H9/21, Amiss10/12, AmissmissmissM5
6NU10/18, Amissmiss9/21, A11/2, HmissmissIowa6
7MSU10/5, H11/16, H10/26, An/a9/28, A11/30, A11/23, HNU7
8MNmissmiss11/9, Amissmiss10/26, A10/19, HPU8
9PUmissmiss10/5, Hmiss11/30, A10/12, AmissUNL9
10UNL9/28, Amissmissmiss10/26, A11/23, HmissMD10
11IU9/14, A11/23, A11/16, H9/28, Hn/a10/19, H10/12, AIU11
12UMD11/9, H11/2, A9/27, A11/30, H10/19, An/a10/5, HMN12
13ILLmiss10/12, Amiss11/9, Hmissmiss11/2, AILL13
14RU11/16, A9/28, H11/30, H11/23, A10/12, H10/5, An/aRU14
.TeamtOSUUWPSUMSUIUUMDRUTeam.
Rank.1237111214.Rank
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2019, 03:20:58 PM »
My initial thoughts by team:

 - Ohio State:  The Buckeyes are the best team, at least according to ELA, but they play their chief rival (per ELA, this year, and in general) on the road.  That obviously hurts Ohio State's CCG chances but other than the location of "THE GAME", I think that Ohio State's schedule is substantially more favorable than Michigan's.  Ie, I think it is reasonably likely that Ohio State could lose THE GAME and go to Indianapolis anyway where I think Michigan's chances of getting to Indianapolis after losing to Ohio State are remote.  After Michigan, the Buckeye's next toughest road game is Northwestern and nobody confuses Ryan Field for Camp Randall so that helps the Buckeyes a lot. 

 - Michigan:  The obvious key for Michigan is to beat the Buckeyes at home but even if they accomplish that, the Wolverines still have two road games in VERY hostile environments against good teams.  Trips to Happy Valley and Camp Randall are not easy and Michigan has to make both of those trips.  It would certainly be ironic if Jim Harbaugh finally got beating Ohio State off of his to-do list but failed to win the division anyway because of two other losses. 

 - Penn State:  The Nittany Lions best chance for a trip to Indianapolis might just be divisional balance.  If the Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Nittany Lions all win the home games among each other then they'll all be 1-1 in those games and CCG representation would come down to how they each do against the rest of the league and/or the three-way tiebreaker.  In addition to the games against tOSU and M, Penn State also has potentially tricky trips to Kinnick, East Lansing, and the Bank. 

 - Michigan State:  Dantonio's squad lately seems to be a competent offense away from being a CG contender.  This year it will be tricky for them even if they do manage to attain competence on offense.  They travel to The Shoe, The Big House, Camp Randall, and Evanston and even an EXTREMELY good team would be lucky to go 2-2 through that gauntlet. 

 - Indiana:  The Hoosiers host both Ohio State and Michigan but they travel to PSU, MSU, PU, UNL, and UMD.  I just can't see a plausible path to Indy. 

 - Maryland:  Personally, I think that ELA might be a little overly bearish on the Terps but I still can't see a plausible path to Indy.  They do host two of the top-3 (M, PSU) but it would still take an upset to win either of those games and both would be beyond shocking.  Even if they managed to go 2-1 against the top-3, they would still need to contend with road games against MSU, MN,  and PU. 

 - Rutgers:  IMHO, the Scarlet Knights are more likely to go winless in B1G play than to play in the B1GCG. 
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2019, 06:18:30 PM »

Which scenario would Wolverine fans prefer of the following two?:

1) Lose to OSU and ND, but win the B1G East Division.

or 

B) Beat OSU and ND, but finish 2nd or lower in the B1G East standings.
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2019, 06:31:17 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 21, 2019, 06:18:30 PM
Which scenario would Wolverine fans prefer of the following two?:

1) Lose to OSU and ND, but win the B1G East Division.

or

B) Beat OSU and ND, but finish 2nd or lower in the B1G East standings.
Who wouldn't want scenario #1? OSU and ND are huge, but a Big Ten championship is literally the highest regular season thing Michigan can theoretically accomplish.
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2019, 06:38:34 PM »
As for the topic, if this ordering stands, there's a massive gap between 1/2 and 3. But I don't think this ordering will stand. 

I think MSU and that defense will rise to be in the mix.

My guess is that between (a) still never having accomplished anything without Joe Moorehead and (b) likely suffering the nation's worst transfer portal attrition, Franklin will plummet in a setup for a December 2020 firing. Granted, most of this is about how indispensable Moorehead was and how he hasn't been adequately replaced. That's my way of admitting that much of the attrition has been from the realm of also-rans. Still: they lost such a volume of guys that now their scholarship numbers are *at least* ten men fewer than the 85-man limit. At a minimum, assuming everyone else stays healthy, that's worrisome for depth and the scout team.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2019, 07:05:25 PM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on May 21, 2019, 06:31:17 PM
Who wouldn't want scenario #1? OSU and ND are huge, but a Big Ten championship is literally the highest regular season thing Michigan can theoretically accomplish.

Of course a B1G East Title doesn't guarantee you a Big Ten Title. But it does get you an at bat in the Big Ten CCG, assuming you win the tie breaker if there is one (we'll say you do for this exercise).

In theory you could still make the playoffs in scenario 2, if the lone blemish is to an undefeated Penn St or some such. 
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847badgerfan

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #6 on: May 21, 2019, 08:14:59 PM »
Until the B1G West can show it can win a CCG, I'll reserve judgement. The B1G East has a lockdown on the CCG right now.
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FearlessF

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #7 on: May 21, 2019, 08:16:44 PM »
never fear, Scott Frost is back in Lincoln

it's just a matter of time
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847badgerfan

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2019, 08:20:38 PM »
Sounds a lot like what was being said in 2010. Ya know, UNL running all of the Big Ten and all that.
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FearlessF

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2019, 08:22:45 PM »
as you know me well, I wasn't saying it in 2010, and I'm joshing tonight
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847badgerfan

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #10 on: May 21, 2019, 08:23:17 PM »
Me too.

#
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FearlessF

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #11 on: May 21, 2019, 08:23:43 PM »
in other words

my judgement is reserved

as it was in 2010
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2019, 09:45:20 AM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 21, 2019, 07:05:25 PM
Of course a B1G East Title doesn't guarantee you a Big Ten Title. But it does get you an at bat in the Big Ten CCG, assuming you win the tie breaker if there is one (we'll say you do for this exercise).

In theory you could still make the playoffs in scenario 2, if the lone blemish is to an undefeated Penn St or some such.
In theory maybe but in practice it would be pretty unlikely. 

FWIW:  I agree with @Anonymous Coward .  Winning the B1G-E is now MORE important to me than beating Michigan.  Obviously both is best and in most years it will be difficult or impossible to win the B1G-E without beating Michigan but, given the choice between a win in Ann Arbor and a berth in Indianapolis, I'd take the berth in Indianapolis without hesitating. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2019 B1G-E Race
« Reply #13 on: May 22, 2019, 09:54:22 AM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on May 21, 2019, 06:38:34 PM
As for the topic, if this ordering stands, there's a massive gap between 1/2 and 3. But I don't think this ordering will stand.


Even if we assume that @ELA 's ordering is correct, it still makes a HUMONGOUS difference where the gaps are and how big those gaps are. 

The best-case-scenario for Michigan is what you suggested:  A massive gap between 1/2 and 3.  In that case:
 - #2 Michigan should beat #1 tOSU because the Wolverines get HFA for that game. 
 - #2 Michigan should beat #3 PSU on the road because of the massive gap. 
 - #2 Michigan should do no worse than 6-1 against their other seven conference opponents (vsIA, @UW, vsMSU, @IU, @UMD, @IL, vsRU) because they are just a lot better than those teams so even 6-1 allows for one upset. 

Thus, Michigan should win the B1G-E because they'll have the H2H tiebreaker over the Buckeyes. 

OTOH, if there are a top-3 then a big gap before #4 that would be best for Penn State.  In that case the Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Nittany Lions should all go 1-1 against each other. 

Continuing to assume that ELA's ordering is correct, it also matters how much better the B1G-E's big three are than #4 Iowa, #5 UW, and #6 NU.  Ohio State (NU), Michigan (UW), and Penn State (IA) each play one of those teams on the road. 
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